- The Jets are -7.5 point favorites vs the Broncos
- Total (Over/Under): 39.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Denver Broncos (1-2-0) visit MetLife Stadium to take on the New York Jets (2-1-0) on Sep. 29. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in East Rutherford, NJ.
The Jets are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Broncos vs. Jets Over/Under is 39.5 total points for the game.
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Broncos vs. Jets Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Broncos | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +300 |
| Jets | -7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -375 |
Broncos vs. Jets Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Jets will win this game with 69.3% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Broncos vs Jets Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Broncos will cover the spread with 57.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Broncos players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Broncos Player Prop Bets Today
- Courtland Sutton has hit the Longest Reception Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 53% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Receptions Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.65 Units / 35% ROI)
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.50 Units / 48% ROI)
- Marvin Mims Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- Javonte Williams has hit the Longest Rush Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 36% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Jets players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Jets Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Breece Hall has hit the Receptions Over in 14 of his last 17 games (+11.55 Units / 56% ROI)
- Tyler Conklin has hit the Receptions Over in his last 8 games at home (+8.20 Units / 77% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 17 games (+6.20 Units / 31% ROI)
- Tyler Conklin has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games at home (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)
- Breece Hall has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 28% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jets vs Broncos
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | +360 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | +600 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Jets vs Broncos
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | -165 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | +125 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Jets vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 27.5 -115 | 27.5 -115 |
| Courtland Sutton (DEN) | 42.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 14.5 -115 | 14.5 -115 |
| Josh Reynolds (DEN) | 26.5 -120 | 26.5 -110 |
| Garrett Wilson (NYJ) | 54.5 -120 | 54.5 -110 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Jets vs Broncos
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 65.5 -120 | 65.5 -110 |
| Javonte Williams (DEN) | 28.5 -115 | 28.5 -115 |
Broncos Best Bets:
- The Denver Broncos have covered the 1Q Spread in 16 of their last 20 games (+10.90 Units / 46% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.90 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.45 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+7.30 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Denver Broncos have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.75 Units / 24% ROI)
Jets Best Bets:
- The New York Jets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+3.95 Units / 43% ROI)
- The New York Jets have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.75 Units / 37% ROI)
- The New York Jets have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+3.75 Units / 18% ROI)
Broncos Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Broncos art 2-1 (+0.95 Units / 29.23% ROI).
- Broncos are 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.15 Units / 5% ROI
- Broncos are 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Broncos are 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / ROI
Jets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Jets are 2-1 (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).
- Jets are 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 16.95% ROI
- Jets are 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
- Jets are 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -3.03% ROI
Denver Broncos: Keys to the Game vs. the New York Jets
The Broncos are winless (0-6) when trailing at the end of quarter 1 since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .287.
The Broncos are 4-17 (.190) when not forcing a fumble since the 2022 season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .422.
The Broncos are 3-6 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Broncos are winless (0-4) when allowing more than 50% of third down conversions opportunities since the 2022 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .244.
New York Jets: Keys to the Game vs. the Denver Broncos
The Jets are 5-0 (1.000) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed an average of 136.3 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Jets are winless (0-7) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
The Jets were winless (0-6) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .421.
The Jets were 1-3 (.250) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes last season — T-7th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .427.
Additional Matchup Notes for Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
The Jets have run successful plays on 54.8% of pass attempts against a base front this season — T-4th-best in NFL. The Broncos have allowed successful plays on 59.6% of pass attempts with a base front this season — worst in NFL.
The Jets have a third down conversion rate of just 30.0% since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Broncos defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of just 32.6% since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Jets ran successful plays on 65.0% of pass attempts against a base front last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Broncos allowed successful plays on 63.6% of pass attempts with a base front last week — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Broncos have been successful on just 38.9% of plays they have ran on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 35.3% of plays on play action passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 40.0% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 38.3% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — best in NFL.
The Broncos have run successful plays on just 34.8% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Jets have allowed successful plays on just 31.6% of pass attempts on play action passes this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
Denver Broncos Offense: Important Stats
The Broncos have averaged -0.51 epa per play on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Broncos targeted RBs 29% of the time (150 Pass Attempts/513 plays) last season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Broncos have targeted RBs 27% of the time (168 Pass Attempts/626 plays) since the 2022 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Broncos have run successful plays on 29% of plays on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
New York Jets Offense: Important Stats
The Jets averaged 11.8 drives per TD last season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.0.
The Jets converted first downs on just 19 of 51 plays (37%) on 3rd and short last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 59%.
The Jets have gone three and out 4 times in the 2nd quarter this season — T-most in NFL.
The Jets ran successful plays on 43% of pass attempts on first read passes last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
Denver Broncos Defense: Important Stats
The Broncos defense allowed a passer rating of 135.6 against play action passes (123 Pass Attempts) last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 101.1.
The Broncos defense has allowed 1 receptions for 20+ yards this season — fewest in NFL.
The Broncos defense has allowed a passer rating of 128.4 against play action passes (138 Pass Attempts) since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 100.3.
The Broncos defense has allowed successful plays on 10% of rush attempts in the 4th quarter this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
New York Jets Defense: Important Stats
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 36% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense has allowed successful plays on 37% of pass attempts from their own territory since the 2022 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts with a base front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Jets defense allowed successful plays on 35% of plays with a base front last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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