- The Ravens are -3.5 point favorites vs the Chiefs
- Total (Over/Under): 44.5 points
- Watch this AFC Championship game on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, Jan. 28. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:00pm EST in Baltimore, MD.
The Ravens are betting favorites in this playoff matchup, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-115).
The Chiefs vs. Ravens Over/Under is 44.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | +3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +170 |
| Ravens | -3.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -210 |
Chiefs vs. Ravens Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win the AFC Championship game with 63.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Ravens Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Ravens will cover the spread with 55.9% confidence.
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Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Skyy Moore has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 58% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 away games (+6.50 Units / 64% ROI)
- Kadarius Toney has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 11 games (+6.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis Kelce has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.25 Units / 53% ROI)
- Rashee Rice has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 15 games (+6.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Best Ravens Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Ravens players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Justice Hill has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Isaiah Likely has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Justice Hill has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.95 Units / 60% ROI)
- Dalvin Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.15 Units / 35% ROI)
- Keaton Mitchell has hit the Longest Rush Over in his last 5 games (+5.05 Units / 89% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Ravens vs Chiefs
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Kadarius Toney | |
| Lamar Jackson | +600 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +750 |
| Gus Edwards | +750 |
| Travis Kelce | +800 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Ravens vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | +115 |
| Kadarius Toney | |
| Lamar Jackson | +100 |
| Rashee Rice | +125 |
| Isiah Pacheco | +130 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Ravens vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Watson | 15.5 -120 | 15.5 -110 |
| Rashee Rice | 59.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 |
| Noah Gray | 10.5 -110 | 10.5 -120 |
| Travis Kelce | 62.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 17.5 -110 | 17.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Ravens vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | 26.5 -135 | 26.5 +100 |
| Isiah Pacheco | 63.5 -125 | 63.5 -105 |
| Lamar Jackson | 65.5 -115 | 65.5 -115 |
| Justice Hill | 33.5 -120 | 33.5 -110 |
| Gus Edwards | 44.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 18 of their last 20 games (+15.70 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.55 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 3Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.50 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.35 Units / 12% ROI)
Ravens Best Bets:
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 1H Spread in 13 of their last 15 games (+11.00 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 3Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+10.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 15 games (+10.05 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+8.85 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+7.20 Units / 29% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs went 10-7 (+2.3 Units / 11.5% ROI).
- Chiefs are 12-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.7 Units / -6.67% ROI
- Chiefs are 6-12 when betting the Over for -7.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
- Chiefs are 12-6 when betting the Under for +5.4 Units / ROI
Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens went 12-6 (+5.4 Units / 27.2% ROI).
- Ravens are 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.55 Units / 14.8% ROI
- Ravens are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -9.6% ROI
- Ravens are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / 1.01% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens
The Chiefs are 8-4 (.667) when rushing less than 25 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Chiefs are undefeated (3-0) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .661.
The Chiefs are 4-3 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .270.
The Chiefs are 8-1 (.889) after a loss since the 2022 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .475.
Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Ravens are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 run offenses this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .424.
The Ravens are 9-2 (.818) when not throwing an interception this season — T-6th-best in NFL. The Chiefs have intercepted 8 passes this season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.
The Ravens are undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Ravens are undefeated (5-0) vs top 10 offenses this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .359.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have run successful plays on 46.1% of rush attempts this season — 4th-best in NFL. Chiefs have allowed successful plays on 46.3% of rush attempts this season — 2nd-worst in NFL.
The Ravens have thrown the ball just 45.8% of the time this season — lowest in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just 5.4 yards per dropback this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Ravens ran successful plays on just 37.5% of pass attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 5th-worst in NFL. Chiefs allowed successful plays on just 36.4% of pass attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Chiefs have run 17.8% offensive plays in the red zone since the 2022 season — best in NFL. Ravens has allowed their opponent to run 15.1% of plays in the red zone since the 2022 season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs ran successful plays on 50.0% of rush attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — T-4th-best in NFL. Ravens allowed successful plays on 49.2% of rush attempts in the last 4 weeks of the regular season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Chiefs have rushed the ball on just 37.4% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone this season — 2nd-lowest in NFL. The Ravens have allowed 5 rushing touchdowns in the Red Zone this season — fewest in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs had a third down conversion rate of 47% on third and 10+ yards to go in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 19%.
The Chiefs have a third down conversion rate of 32% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.
The Chiefs are averaging 13.2 drives per TD in the 4th quarter this season — worst Drives Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.2.
The Chiefs converted first downs on 36 of 80 plays (45%) on 3rd and long in the 2022 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats
The Ravens have rushed for 20+ yards 21 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
The Ravens have thrown the ball 24% of the time (14 Pass Attempts/58 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Ravens have targeted TEs 32% of the time (313 Pass Attempts/982 plays) since the 2022 season — highest in NFL; League Avg: 20%.
The Ravens targeted WRs 41% of the time (198 Pass Attempts/488 plays) in the 2022 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense pressured opposing QBs 20 times in Week 18 — most in NFL.
The Chiefs defense has allowed just 3.6 yards per dropback (256 yards/72 attempts) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 6.2.
The Chiefs defense has allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 3% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats
25% of the plays run against the Ravens have been in the red zone in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 16%.
The Ravens defense has allowed just 15.4 points per game to opposing offenses (261 points / 17 games) this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 20.7.
The Ravens defense has allowed 5 rushing TDs on 47 carries (9.4 Carries Per TD) in the red zone this season — 2nd-best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.
The Ravens defense has allowed successful plays on 39% of pass attempts in the 1st half this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
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