- The Steelers are -2.5 point favorites vs the Cowboys
- Total (Over/Under): 44 points
- Watch this game on NBC
The Dallas Cowboys (2-2-0) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1-0) on Oct. 6. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20pm EDT in Pittsburgh, PA.
The Steelers are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Cowboys vs. Steelers Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Cowboys vs. Steelers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Cowboys | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 |
| Steelers | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -135 |
Cowboys vs. Steelers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Cowboys will win this game with 58.4% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Cowboys vs Steelers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Cowboys will cover the spread with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Cowboys players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cowboys Player Prop Bets Today
- Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Brandin Cooks has hit the Longest Reception Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Dak Prescott has hit the Longest Rush Under in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.60 Units / 41% ROI)
- Ezekiel Elliott has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rico Dowdle has hit the Carries Under in 6 of his last 8 games (+3.85 Units / 39% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Steelers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- George Pickens has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+7.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Carries Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+6.80 Units / 33% ROI)
- Russell Wilson has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the TD Passes Under in 8 of his last 12 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.30 Units / 28% ROI)
Cowboys Best Bets:
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+6.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 11 away games (+5.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have covered the 1Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+4.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Dallas Cowboys have scored last in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 46% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 4Q Spread in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.15 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 18 games (+7.75 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored last in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have scored first in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 29% ROI)
Cowboys Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Cowboys art 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- Cowboys are 2-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.7 Units / -23.61% ROI
- Cowboys are 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
- Cowboys are 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / ROI
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers are 3-1 (+1.9 Units / 42.7% ROI).
- Steelers are 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.25 Units / 42.06% ROI
- Steelers are 1-3 when betting the Over for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI
- Steelers are 3-1 when betting the Under for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Dallas Cowboys: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Cowboys were undefeated (4-0) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Cowboys were 12-1 (.923) when forcing 1 or more turnovers last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .594.
The Cowboys are 14-2 (.875) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .597.
The Cowboys were 5-4 (.556) when rushing less than 25 times last season — 3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .276.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Dallas Cowboys
The Steelers are 3-1 (.750) this season — T-3rd-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Steelers were 8-2 (.800) when within 7 points at the two minute warning last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Steelers are undefeated (3-0) after a road win since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .466.
The Steelers were undefeated (4-0) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .573.
Additional Matchup Notes for Dallas Cowboys vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 35.3% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on just 25.9% of pass attempts with a heavy rush since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 28.1% of pass attempts against a light front this season — 3rd-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed successful plays on just 21.4% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Steelers have been successful on just 31.9% of plays they have ran against a light front this season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Cowboys have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 29.4% of plays with a light front this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Cowboys are averaging just 3.6 yards per carry this season — T-4th-worst in NFL. The Steelers have allowed just 3.8 yards per carry this season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Cowboys have run successful plays on 55.6% of pass attempts against a light rush since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Steelers have pressured opposing QBs on 0% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL.
The Cowboys have rushed the ball on just 30.0% of plays from scrimmage in the red zone this season — lowest in NFL. The Steelers have allowed 1 rushing touchdown in the Red Zone this season — T-2nd-fewest in NFL.
Dallas Cowboys Offense: Important Stats
The Cowboys have scored on 46% of their drives in the 2nd half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Cowboys have run successful plays on 43% of pass attempts on passes when their QB has been pressured since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 29%.
The Cowboys ran 20% of their plays in the red zone last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 14%.
The Cowboys have converted first downs on 26 of 67 plays (39%) when their QB has scrambled since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Steelers averaged -0.44 epa per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
The Steelers ran successful plays on 40% of pass attempts against a base front last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Steelers have run successful plays on 28% of plays in the 1st quarter this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
Dallas Cowboys Defense: Important Stats
The Cowboys defense allowed just 4.3 yards per dropback (561 yards/131 attempts) when targeted at a depth of 1-5 yards last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
The Cowboys defense has allowed successful plays on 33% of pass attempts in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Cowboys defense has allowed 14.1 yards after the catch (212 RAC / 15 receptions) to RBs this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 8.4.
The Cowboys defense allowed 0.21 epa per play with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 51.3 in the red zone (87 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.5.
The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 2nd half this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Steelers defense forced 8 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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