NFL Predictions 2024: Season Win Total Picks

NFL season win totals for the 2024-25 season are live at the BetMGM online sportsbook. 

For those new to the concept, season win totals allow bettors to place a wager on how many wins a team will accumulate over the course of the regular season. 

Using a predetermined number, bettors decide whether that team will amass a higher or lower number and bet accordingly. 

Check out the full list of win total breakdowns below. NFL betting lines reflect the time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Win Total Predictions

Denver Broncos Under 5.5 Wins (+120)

The Broncos defense may prop up their problems, but I don’t see how their offense does enough to create wins. 

They’ve cut Russell Wilson and traded Jerry Jeudy, arguably their two best offensive weapons. 

In theory, Denver could run the ball behind Javonte Williams and an offensive line that ranked fourth in PFF’s run-blocking grades. 

However, they also lost center Lloyd Cushenberry III this offseason. Last year, Cushenberry ranked third on the Broncos in PFF’s run-blocking grade. 

Denver also plays only eight games this year at home and faces a generally brutal schedule. 

Of their 17 games, four come against the AFC North, two come against the Chiefs and three more come against potential playoff teams – Seattle, the Jets and Atlanta. 

Add in the Broncos swept the Chargers last season in games where Easton Stick featured for a majority of snaps, and I expect some regression on that front. 

Denver also finished 3-3 in the division last year and 4-4 against playoff teams. With Jarrett Stidham at quarterback – or a rookie QB – I don’t expect those records to replicate. 

Finally, Denver finished last season with a 7-10 expected win-loss record last season, according to pro-football-reference.com, despite finishing 8-9. 

Take the plus money on Denver’s under as a result. 

New England Patriots Under 5.5 Wins (-140)

New England notched only four wins last season, and one could argue they were lucky to get there. 

They beat the Jets on the road against Zach Wilson and picked up a win over a Steelers team starting Mitch Trubisky. 

If those teams have their starting quarterbacks for those games, one could argue the Patriots lose those games. 

Although the Patriots finished 3-8 in games decided by seven points or fewer last season, I question how a rookie quarterback and/or Jacoby Brissett move the ball. 

Last season, New England ranked 31st in EPA per play, 31st in dropback EPA and 24th in rushing EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com. 

Like the Broncos, New England loses a home game this season and faces a brutal road schedule. 

This year, the average win total of their nine road opponents is 9.05, and play six of nine against teams with a win total of 9.5 or higher. 

For their entire schedule, they play a majority of games against teams with a win total of 9.5 or higher and only three games against teams with a win total south of 7.5. 

As a result, I can’t foresee a scenario where the Patriots notch two bonus wins in their belt this season. Lay the price on the under.

New York Jets Over 9.5 Wins (+120)

There’s one big if with this team – can they keep all their pieces healthy? 

If the answer to that question is yes, the Jets have a much higher ceiling this season than their current win total. 

I love what the Jets have done in free agency. 

They’ve sured up their offensive line – a unit that was 30th and 27th in PFF’s pass-blocking and run-blocking grades – via Tyron Smith, Morgan Moses and John Simpson. 

Mike Williams also comes up to add an aerial threat alongside Garrett Wilson. 

Finally, the sneaky good addition they made is adding Tyrod Taylor to back up Aaron Rodgers. If Rodgers goes down hurt again, I trust Taylor a lot more than Zach Wilson. 

Additionally, the Jets possess one of the league’s best defenses. Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, New York ranks third in defensive EPA per play, per rbsdm.com. 

They also play in what should prove a comparably easier division compared to last season. Buffalo and Miami both lost key personnel while the Patriots simply aren’t good. 

As a result, the Jets seem primed for a breakout campaign – assuming their offense can prove average. 

Since the beginning of the 2022-23 season, the Jets are 32nd in offensive EPA per play. 

Rodgers’ return should help that ranking immensely. Even if they sit around 15th or 16th in the league, their outstanding defense is enough to lead them to wins. 

Take the plus money on New York’s over as a result.

Atlanta Falcons Under 9.5 Wins (+115)

The Falcons may very well win the division, but this win total is far too high. 

The reasoning? They’ve done nothing to address their atrocious defense. 

Since the beginning of last season, the Falcons are 28th in defensive EPA per play and 26th in defensive success rate when their win probability is between 14 and 86%, per rbsdm.com. 

Last season, Atlanta ranked second in PFF’s run defense grades but sat 25th in coverage grade and 27th in pressure rate. 

Plus, this team has made a habit of playing close games. 

Over the last two seasons, the Falcons have seen 21 of 36 games decided by eight points or fewer. They’ve gone 8-13 SU in those contests. 

Within that 21-game sample, bettors will find Atlanta has played 14 games that have been decided by three or fewer points. Atlanta finished 7-7 SU in those contests. 

Add in the fact Kirk Cousins is 5-1 SU in games decided by three or fewer points over the last two years – he’s 7-5 over the last three – and this isn’t exactly a team built for easy wins. 

Pair that trend with their vulnerable defense, and I expect Atlanta will stay under 9.5 wins in a division that has seen two straight division winners notch nine or fewer victories.

Pittsburgh Steelers Under 7.5 Wins (+145)

Make an argument against this other than “but Mike Tomlin has never produced a losing season.” 

Last season, the Steelers were incredibly fortunate. They finished 10-7, including 5-1 in divisional games and 9-2 in games decided by seven or fewer points. 

That latter record mirrors the 2022-23 Vikings, who finished 9-0 in games decided by seven or fewer points and won 13 games. The next year, they dropped to 7-10. 

Plus, they were incredibly lucky in that four of those divisional games came against backup quarterbacks — both games against Cincinnati, at Cleveland and at Baltimore in Week 18. 

This season, Pittsburgh plays the toughest schedule in the NFL in terms of opposing win totals. 

Here’s their schedule from Week 11 onward: Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Kansas City, Cincinnati. 

Yikes. 

By my estimate, this is a team that would close a favorite in six, maybe seven games. 

Although their outstanding defense always renders Pittsburgh a live underdog, they’re an injury to T.J. Watt away from becoming a bottom-half defense. 

While I’d prefer to have push protection on eight wins, I’ll take under 7.5 wins at a solid plus-money price.

Cleveland Browns Under 8.5 Wins (+115)

This is a shocking number to me, given the Browns’ overwhelming fortune last season. 

Although they won 11 games, it came against an expected win-loss record of 9.4-7.6, according to pro-football-reference.com. 

Additionally, Cleveland finished 5-0 in games decided by three points or less and 6-2 in games decided by a touchdown or fewer. 

History suggests those games are coin-flip decisions, so natural regression should be expected from the Browns. 

Plus, this team is going to play a radically harder schedule in the 2024-25 season. 

Based on opposing win totals, the Browns possess the third-hardest schedule this season. Only the Steelers and Patriots have more difficult slates. 

Granted, all of that happened in a season where Deshaun Watson played only five full games. 

Cleveland also possessed one of the league’s best defenses and surrendered the fewest points per game at home. 

But this is simultaneously a team that allowed the most points per game away from home. This season, they’ll play a majority of games on the road. 

As a result, I’ll take the plus money available to me and bank on the Browns experiencing some regression.

Minnesota Vikings Under 5.5 Wins (+195)

By the time Week 8 arrives, there’s a real possibility Minnesota could find itself 0-8. 

The market has the Vikings slight favorites in Week 1, but Weeks 2-8 are brutal. 

Here’s that schedule: San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay and the New York Jets. After a bye week, they play Detroit and the Rams. 

The schedule softens slightly from Week 9 onward. However, Minnesota still plays the fifth-hardest schedule based on opponent win totals. 

For the entire season, Minnesota is projected to close a favorite only three times. 

Oh…and have I mentioned there’s a major quarterback problem following J.J. McCarthy’s season-ending injury? 

Sam Darnold should start for Minnesota, and he presents a big drop-off from Kirk Cousins. 

Since 2018, 25 quarterbacks have played at least 2,000 snaps. Darnold ranks dead last of that group in EPA per play, success rate and completion percentage. 

Over that same timeframe, Cousins ranked 13th, 10th and first in those respective metrics 

Someone has to finish last in the NFC North, and I envision the Vikings are in for a long campaign.