- The Ravens are -10 point favorites vs the Steelers
- Total (Over/Under): 44 points
- Watch this game on Amazon
The Pittsburgh Steelers visit M&T Bank Stadium to take on the Baltimore Ravens on Jan. 11. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST in Baltimore, MD.
The Ravens are betting favorites in this AFC Wild Card matchup, with the spread sitting at -10 (-105).
The Steelers vs. Ravens Over/Under is 44 total points for the game.
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Steelers vs. Ravens Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Steelers | +10 -115 | 44 -110 | +425 |
| Ravens | -10 -105 | 44 -110 | -600 |
Steelers vs. Ravens Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Ravens will win this game with 80.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Steelers vs Ravens Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Ravens will cover the spread with 57.3% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Steelers players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Steelers Player Prop Bets Today
- Russell Wilson has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 5 away games (+6.25 Units / 79% ROI)
- Najee Harris has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.15 Units / 28% ROI)
- Van Jefferson has hit the Receptions Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.57 Units / 62% ROI)
- Justin Fields has hit the Interceptions Under in his last 5 away games (+5.10 Units / 82% ROI)
- Calvin Austin III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.85 Units / 60% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Ravens players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ravens Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Lamar Jackson has hit the TD Passes Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.10 Units / 31% ROI)
- Lamar Jackson has hit the Interceptions Under in 14 of his last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
- Derrick Henry has hit the Receptions Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+5.50 Units / 50% ROI)
- Lamar Jackson has hit the Carries Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.05 Units / 24% ROI)
- Derrick Henry has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Steelers Best Bets:
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 3Q Spread in 15 of their last 19 games (+11.15 Units / 48% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+9.05 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+6.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2H Spread in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.60 Units / 42% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 28% ROI)
Ravens Best Bets:
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2H Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have covered the 2H Spread in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.83 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Baltimore Ravens have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games at home (+4.00 Units / 18% ROI)
Steelers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Steelers art 11-6 (+4.3 Units / 23.06% ROI).
- Steelers are 10-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 12.94% ROI
- Steelers are 8-9 when betting the Over for -1.9 Units / -10.16% ROI
- Steelers are 9-8 when betting the Under for +0.2 Units / ROI
Ravens Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Ravens are 10-6 (+3.45 Units / 18.35% ROI).
- Ravens are 12-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.1 Units / -0.14% ROI
- Ravens are 13-4 when betting the Over for +8.6 Units / 45.99% ROI
- Ravens are 4-13 when betting the Under for -10.3 Units / -55.08% ROI
Pittsburgh Steelers: Keys to the Game vs. the Baltimore Ravens
The Steelers are 6-2 (.750) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 239.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Steelers are undefeated (3-0) when leading at the end of first quarter this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .622.
The Steelers are 4-2 (.667) when making 5 or more explosive passes in a game this season — T-10th-best in NFL; League Avg: .570.
The Steelers were undefeated (3-0) when passing for more than 250 yards last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .586.
Baltimore Ravens: Keys to the Game vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers
The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when sacking the QB less than 3 times last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .363.
The Ravens were undefeated (4-0) when the opposing team commits 60 yards or more in penalties. last season — best in NFL; League Avg: .513.
The Ravens are 9-3 (.750) when not throwing an interception this season — T-8th-best in NFL. The Browns have intercepted 4 passes this season — fewest in NFL.
The Ravens are 9-4 (.692) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — T-9th-best in NFL. The Browns have turned the ball over 31 times this season — 2nd-most in NFL.
Additional Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens have a third down conversion rate of 45.9% against the blitz this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Browns defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 43.2% when blitzing this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
The Ravens have thrown for 20+ yards on 53 of 445 attempts this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Browns allowed 20+ yards on 11.1% of attempts this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
Ravens RBs have averaged 10.8 yards after the catch this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Browns have allowed 9.6 yards after catch per reception to RBs this season — T-2nd-worst in NFL.
The Steelers have run successful plays on just 33.7% of pass attempts against a light front this season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Bengals have allowed successful plays on just 37.6% of pass attempts with a light front this season — 4th-best in NFL.
The Steelers are 6-2 (.750) when passing for 250 or more yards since the 2023 season — 6th-best in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 239.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
Steelers TEs have 9 receiving touchdowns this season — T-2nd-most in NFL. The Bengals have allowed 29 receiving touchdowns this season — 4th-most in NFL.
Pittsburgh Steelers Offense: Important Stats
The Steelers have averaged 9.3 yards per play on contested throws this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.4.
The Steelers started 21 drives inside their own 10 yard line last season — T-2nd-most in NFL.
The Steelers have gone three and out 8 times in the 1st quarter since Week 14 — most in NFL.
The Steelers averaged -0.44 epa per play on contested throws last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.12.
Baltimore Ravens Offense: Important Stats
The Ravens have thrown the ball 12% of the time (6 Pass Attempts/48 plays) on 3rd and short this season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 44%.
The Ravens have rushed for 20+ yards 26 times this season — most in NFL.
The Ravens have rushed for 20+ yards 47 times since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Ravens have averaged 7.7 yards per play on first drive of the game this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 5.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers Defense: Important Stats
The Steelers defense allowed a passer rating of just 51.0 in the red zone (71 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Steelers defense has allowed a passer rating of just 65.7 in the red zone (139 Pass Attempts) since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 94.6.
The Steelers defense forced 8 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
The Steelers defense has allowed successful plays on 36% of rush attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
Baltimore Ravens Defense: Important Stats
The Ravens defense allowed -0.34 epa per play with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.05.
The Ravens defense allowed -0.14 epa per play in the 1st half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.00.
The Ravens defense have allowed -0.11 epa per play in the 1st half since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Ravens defense allowed successful plays on 27% of plays with a light front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
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