- The Vanderbilt is a -25.5 point favorite vs. Ball State
- The Ball State vs. Vanderbilt Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Ball State Cardinals (2-4) visit FirstBank Stadium to take on the Vanderbilt Commodores (4-2) on Oct. 19 in Nashville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Vanderbilt is a betting favorite in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -25.5 (-115).
The Ball State vs. Vanderbilt Over/Under is 58.5 total points.
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Ball State vs. Vanderbilt Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Ball State | +25.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +1300 |
| Vanderbilt | -25.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -3000 |
Ball State vs Vanderbilt Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Vanderbilt will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ball State and Vanderbilt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Ball State vs Vanderbilt Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ball State will cover the spread with 66.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Ball State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Ball State have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.85 Units / 52% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 games (+3.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ball State has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 10 games (+2.60 Units / 19% ROI)
Vanderbilt Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Vanderbilt has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games at home (+13.00 Units / 433% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 9 games (+9.60 Units / 89% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.80 Units / 51% ROI)
- Vanderbilt have covered the Spread in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Vanderbilt has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Vanderbilt players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Vanderbilt Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Sedrick Alexander has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Diego Pavia has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
- Diego Pavia has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)
- Quincy Skinner Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Junior Sherrill has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ball State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Ball State is 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Ball State is 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -16.67% ROI
- Ball State is 6-0 when betting the Over for +6 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Ball State is 0-6 when betting the Under for -6.6 Units / -100% ROI
Vanderbilt Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Vanderbilt is 5-1 against the spread this college football season (+3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI).
- Vanderbilt is 3-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.5 Units / 182.43% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 5-1 when betting the Over for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI
- Vanderbilt is 1-5 when betting the Under for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
Ball State: Keys to the Game vs. Vanderbilt
Ball State is 2-9 (.182) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 12th-worst in FBS; Average: .461
Ball State is 3-9 (.250) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-13th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .419
Ball State is 3-9 (.250) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .414
Ball State is 2-9 (.182) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 11th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .367
Vanderbilt: Keys to the Game vs. Ball State
Vanderbilt is 3-10 (.231) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .608
Vanderbilt is 4-10 (.286) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .539
Vanderbilt is 3-11 (.214) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-17th-worst in FBS; Average: .423
Vanderbilt is 6-6 (.500) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .681
Matchup Notes for Ball State vs. Vanderbilt
Vanderbilt’s offense has thrown for 1,133 passing yards in 6 games (just 188.8 YPG) this season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 316.8 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Ball State Offensive Stats & Trends
Ball State TEs have averaged 8.2 receptions per game (49/6) this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Ball State TEs have been targeted 13 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams
Ball State TEs have been targeted 66 times this season– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
Ball State WRs had just one touchdown on 7 receptions in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 3rd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9
Ball State TEs have been targeted 17 times in the 1st quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Vanderbilt Offensive Stats & Trends
Vanderbilt WRs have averaged just 6.0 receptions per game (36/6) this season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 12.9
Vanderbilt TEs have picked up first downs on 7 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Vanderbilt WRs have been targeted 9.5 times per game (57/6) this season– lowest among SEC Teams; Average: 20.3
Vanderbilt’s offense has thrown for 1,133 passing yards in 6 games (just 188.8 YPG) this season — 31st-worst among FBS offenses. Ball State’s defense has allowed 316.8 passing yards per game this season — 2nd-worst among FBS defenses.
Vanderbilt TEs have picked up first downs on 7 receptions in close and late situations this season– most among SEC Teams
Ball State Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends
Ball State has allowed 9 TDs in close and late situations this season– most in FBS
Ball State has allowed 9 TDs in close and late situations this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Ball State has not recorded a sack (67 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0
Ball State has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 37 of 187 attempts (20%) this season– best in FBS; Average: 10%
Ball State has allowed 22 TD passes this season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Vanderbilt Commodores Defensive Stats & Trends
Vanderbilt has allowed 5 TDs in close and late situations this season– most in the SEC
Vanderbilt has allowed 8.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (476 yards / 58 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.2
Vanderbilt has sacked opposing QBs on just 6% of pass attempts (33/599) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 8%
Vanderbilt has allowed 417.3 yards from scrimmage per game since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 346.5
Vanderbilt has allowed 259.5 Passing Yards per game (4,671/18) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 217.2
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