Iowa vs Minnesota Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

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Minnesota wide receiver Daniel Jackson (9) in action against Purdue during the first half an NCAA college football game on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022, in Minneapolis. Purdue won 20-10. (AP Photo/Craig Lassig)

(AP Photo/Craig Lassig)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2024, 1:56 PM

Iowa is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Minnesota
Iowa vs. Minnesota Total(Over/Under): 35.5 points
TV Channel: NBC

The Iowa Hawkeyes (2-1) visit Huntington Bank Stadium to take on the Minnesota Golden Gophers (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Minneapolis, MN. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Iowa is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).

The Iowa vs. Minnesota Over/Under is 35.5 total points.

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Iowa vs. Minnesota Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Iowa	-2.5 -115	35.5 -105	-135
Minnesota	+2.5 -105	35.5 -115	+115

Iowa vs Minnesota Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Minnesota will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa and Minnesota, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Iowa vs Minnesota Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Minnesota will cover the spread with 59.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Iowa Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Iowa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+9.35 Units / 66% ROI)

Iowa has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Iowa has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.60 Units / 36% ROI)

Iowa has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Iowa have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Minnesota Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Minnesota have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+2.75 Units / 28% ROI)

Minnesota have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+1.65 Units / 17% ROI)

Minnesota has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.70 Units / 7% ROI)

Minnesota has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.55 Units / 1% ROI)

Minnesota has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 12 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Iowa players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Iowa Player Prop Bets Today

Kaleb Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 78% ROI)

Seth Anderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 76% ROI)

Addison Ostrenga has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Cade McNamara has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)

Kamari Moulton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 73% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Minnesota players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Minnesota Player Prop Best Bets Today

Daniel Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Max Brosmer has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Darius Taylor has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Jordan Nubin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Max Brosmer has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Iowa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.3 Units / -37.68% ROI).

Iowa is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -1.7% ROI
Iowa is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI
Iowa is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Minnesota Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Minnesota is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 60.61% ROI).

Minnesota is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.1% ROI
Minnesota is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -66.67% ROI
Minnesota is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 60.61% ROI

Iowa: Keys to the Game vs. Minnesota

Iowa is winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2022 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .291

Iowa is 8-2 (.800) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .392

Iowa is winless (0-6) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .294

Iowa is 8-1 (.889) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: .497

Minnesota: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa

Minnesota is 1-7 (.125) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408

Minnesota is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .453

Minnesota is winless (0-7) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .403

Minnesota is 2-6 (.154) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .417

Matchup Notes for Iowa vs. Minnesota

Minnesota’s offense has thrown for 2,526 passing yards in 16 games (just 157.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 177.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 12th-best among FBS defenses.

Minnesota’s TEs has gained 339 yards on 37 receptions (just 9.2 YPR) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten TEs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among P5 defenses.

Iowa’s offense has thrown for 2,189 passing yards in 17 games (just 128.8 YPG) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among FBS offenses. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 199.2 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 33rd-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa’s offense has thrown for 528 passing yards in 3 games (just 176.0 YPG) this season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 112.0 passing yards per game this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa’s QBs has thrown for 528 passing yards in 3 games (just 176.0 YPG) this season — 28th-worst among FBS teams. Minnesota’s defense has allowed just 112.0 passing yards per game this season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa Offensive Stats & Trends

Iowa RBs have rushed for 4 TDs in the 4th quarter this season– T-most among FBS Teams

Iowa WRs have averaged just 5.7 receptions per game (97/17) since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.4

Iowa WRs have caught just 160 of 353 passes (45% Reception Pct) since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Iowa TEs have been targeted 8 times in short yardage situations this season– most among FBS Teams

Minnesota Offensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota’s QBs has thrown for 2,526 passing yards in 16 games (just 157.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 8th-worst among FBS teams. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 177.9 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Iowa has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 39 of 917 attempts (4%) since the 2022 season– worst in FBS; Average: 10%

Iowa has allowed 10 rushing TDs on 97 carries (9.7 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.7

Iowa opponents has averaged 38.2 Passing Attempts per TD (917 Pass Attempts/24 Passing TDs) since the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.6

Iowa has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 26 of 561 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 10%

Iowa has allowed 11 rushing TDs on 996 carries (90.5 Carries Per TD) since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 25.4

Minnesota Golden Gophers Defensive Stats & Trends

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (41 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 13.8

Minnesota has allowed no passing TDs (75 pass attempts) this season– T-best in the Big Ten; Average: 33.0

Minnesota has not recorded a sack (41 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.8

Minnesota has sacked opposing QBs just once on 65 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.9

Minnesota has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 76 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

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