Iowa vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Music City Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 12:14 PM

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Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz yells during the second half of the team's Cotton Bowl NCAA college football game against Ohio State on Friday, Dec. 29, 2023, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Missouri is a -3 point favorite vs. Iowa
Iowa vs. Missouri Total (Over/Under): 40.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4) visit Nissan Stadium to take on the Missouri Tigers (9-3) on Dec. 30 in Nashville, TN. Kickoff is scheduled for 2:30pm EST.

Missouri is a betting favorite in the Music City Bowl, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The Iowa vs. Missouri Over/Under is 40.5 total points.

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Iowa vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Iowa	+3 -105	40.5 -115	+135
Missouri	-3 -115	40.5 -105	-165

Iowa vs Missouri Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 57.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa and Missouri, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Iowa vs Missouri Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 58.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Iowa Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Iowa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+7.00 Units / 53% ROI)
Iowa has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Iowa have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.05 Units / 54% ROI)
Iowa has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
Iowa has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.35 Units / 8% ROI)

Missouri Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+6.95 Units / 1% ROI)
Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI)
Missouri have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Missouri has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.75 Units / 51% ROI)
Missouri has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Iowa players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Iowa Player Prop Bets Today

Kaleb Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Reece Vander Zee has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Luke Lachey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Cade McNamara has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaleb Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Missouri Player Prop Best Bets Today

Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Marcus Carroll has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Luther Burden III has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 50% ROI)

Iowa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa is 6-5 against the spread this college football season (+0.35 Units / 2.65% ROI).

Iowa is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -0.89% ROI
Iowa is 8-4 when betting the Over for +3.6 Units / 27.17% ROI
Iowa is 4-8 when betting the Under for -4.75 Units / -36.12% ROI

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri is 8-4 against the spread this college football season (+3.5 Units / 26.32% ROI).

Missouri is 8-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.35 Units / 1.15% ROI
Missouri is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
Missouri is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI

Iowa: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

Iowa is winless (0-5) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .293

Iowa is 1-3 (.250) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .469

Iowa is 9-4 (.692) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .532

Iowa is 16-6 (.727) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-28th-best in FBS; Average: .605

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa

Missouri is undefeated (16-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .675

Missouri is 9-2 (.818) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .503

Missouri is undefeated (16-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .611

Missouri is 17-2 (.895) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .620

Matchup Notes for Iowa vs. Missouri

Missouri’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.4% of 371 attempts this season — T-26th-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts this season — 4th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Missouri has gained 2,639 yards on 232 receptions (just 11.4 YPR) this season — 2nd-worst among SEC skill players. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Missouri’s TEs has 34 receptions in 12 games (just 2.8 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among SEC TEs. Iowa’s defense has allowed 20.2 receptions per game this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Iowa’s WRs has 139 receptions in 26 games (just 5.3 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among FBS WRs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 17.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among SEC defenses.

Iowa’s WRs has 139 receptions in 26 games (just 5.3 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among Power 5 WRs. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 17.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa’s offense has thrown for 1,579 passing yards in 12 games (just 131.6 YPG) this season — 4th-worst among FBS offenses. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 185.5 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among SEC defenses.

Iowa Offensive Stats & Trends

Iowa TEs have averaged 19.8 yards per reception (79 yards/4 catches) in the 4th quarter this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.4

Iowa WRs have averaged just 5.3 receptions per game (139/26) since the 2023 season– worst among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.1

Iowa WRs have averaged just 5.3 receptions per game (139/26) since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6

Iowa Skill Players have been targeted 19.3 times per game (232/12) this season– lowest among Big Ten Teams; Average: 29.8

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri’s WRs has 364 receptions in 25 games (14.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among SEC WRs. Iowa’s defense has allowed 19.5 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Iowa has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 373 carries (124.3 Carries Per TD) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 26

Iowa has not recorded a sack (35 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 15.3

Iowa has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 373 carries (124.3 Carries Per TD) this season– best in FBS; Average: 23.1

Iowa has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 48 carries (16 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Iowa has allowed 3 rushing TDs on 48 carries (16 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 27 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11%.

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 5 of 27 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Missouri has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 1 of 30 carries (3%) on 3rd and long this season– best in the SEC; Average: 15%

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 53 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in the SEC; Average: 11%.

Missouri has tackled opponents for a loss on 22 of 106 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.