Iowa vs Ohio State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 04, 2024, 11:49 AM

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Ohio State head coach Ryan Day observes Rutgers during warm up before a NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 3, 2023, in Piscataway, N.J. (AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

(AP Photo/Noah K. Murray)

The Ohio State is a -19.5 point favorite vs. Iowa
The Iowa vs. Ohio State Total (Over/Under): 45.5 points
TV Channel: CBS

The Iowa Hawkeyes (3-1) visit Ohio Stadium to take on the Ohio State Buckeyes (4-0) on Oct. 5 in Columbus, OH. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

Ohio State is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -19.5 (-115).

The Iowa vs. Ohio State Over/Under is 45.5 total points.

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Iowa vs. Ohio State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Iowa	+19.5 -105	45.5 -110	+825
Ohio State	-19.5 -115	45.5 -110	-1400

Iowa vs Ohio State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 92.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa and Ohio State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Iowa vs Ohio State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ohio State will cover the spread with 57.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Iowa Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Iowa has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+7.20 Units / 54% ROI)
Iowa has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Iowa has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Iowa has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
Iowa have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.20 Units / 50% ROI)

Ohio State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.05 Units / 44% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 14% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Iowa players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Iowa Player Prop Bets Today

Kaleb Johnson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 78% ROI)
Leshon Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Addison Ostrenga has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Seth Anderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Ohio State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ohio State Player Prop Best Bets Today

Emeka Egbuka has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Will Howard has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 49% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Devin Brown has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Iowa Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -6.59% ROI).

Iowa is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.6 Units / 2.4% ROI
Iowa is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
Iowa is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).

Ohio State is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Ohio State is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
Ohio State is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI

Iowa: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Iowa is undefeated (7-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .762

Iowa is undefeated (7-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .795

Iowa is 7-2 (.778) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535

Iowa is 8-1 (.889) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .618

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa

Ohio State is undefeated (7-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .682

Ohio State is winless (0-1) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .284

Ohio State is 14-1 (.933) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .694

Ohio State is 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .500

Matchup Notes for Iowa vs. Ohio State

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.1% of 130 attempts this season — 27th-best among FBS offenses. Iowa’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 8.7% of attempts this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs has gained 1,082 yards on 67 receptions (16.1 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten WRs. Iowa’s defense has allowed 11.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State’s TEs has gained 103 yards on 11 receptions (just 9.4 YPR) this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 8.1 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa’s WRs has 99 receptions in 18 games (just 5.5 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among Big Ten WRs. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Iowa has 229 receptions in 18 games (just 12.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among Big Ten skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Iowa Offensive Stats & Trends

Iowa’s WRs has 99 receptions in 18 games (just 5.5 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Iowa’s offense has thrown for 590 passing yards in 4 games (just 147.5 YPG) this season — 11th-worst among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 134.8 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 4,729 passing yards in 17 games (278.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 24th-best among FBS offenses. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 179.6 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs has gained 3,578 yards on 233 receptions (15.4 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten WRs. Iowa’s defense has allowed just 8.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS defenses.

Iowa Hawkeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Iowa has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 103 rushes this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 25.2

Iowa has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 103 rushes this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 33.6

Iowa has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 601 carries (85.9 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 27.2

Iowa has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 103 rushes this season– T-best in the Big Ten; Average: 34.5

Iowa allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 18 of 471 attempts (4%) in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (2 completions/2 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 52%

Ohio State has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (2 completions/2 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 51%

Ohio State has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 586 carries (83.7 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 27.2

Ohio State opponents has averaged 43.1 Passing Attempts per TD (474 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.5

Ohio State has allowed 7 rushing TDs on 586 carries (83.7 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 24.3