LSU vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 12

BetMGM Betting Nov 13, 2024, 4:25 PM

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Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (45) wraps up Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) for a two-yard loss during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)

(AP Photo/Sam Craft)

LSU is a -4.5 point favorite vs. Florida
LSU vs. Florida Total (Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The LSU Tigers (6-3) visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on the Florida Gators (4-5) on Nov. 16 in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

LSU is a betting favorite in Week 12, with the spread sitting at -4.5 (-110).

The LSU vs. Florida Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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LSU vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
LSU	-4.5 -110	55.5 -115	-190
Florida	+4.5 -110	55.5 -105	+155

LSU vs Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts LSU will win this game with 62.6% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both LSU and Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

LSU vs Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 64.5% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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LSU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

LSU has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 1% ROI)
LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.85 Units / 26% ROI)

Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 64% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.70 Units / 25% ROI)
Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.55 Units / 21% ROI)
Florida have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.40 Units / 19% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for LSU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best LSU Player Prop Bets Today

Kyren Lacy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Garrett Nussmeier has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Garrett Nussmeier has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 57% ROI)
Aaron Anderson has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 53% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

Graham Mertz has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Elijhah Badger has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Eugene Wilson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
DJ Lagway has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
DJ Lagway has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU is 3-6 against the spread this college football season (-3.55 Units / -36.04% ROI).

LSU is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.75 Units / 4.08% ROI
LSU is 3-6 when betting the Over for -3.65 Units / -36.68% ROI
LSU is 6-3 when betting the Under for +2.7 Units / 27.41% ROI

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI).

Florida is 3-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.85 Units / -19.27% ROI
Florida is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.7 Units / 27.27% ROI
Florida is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.36% ROI

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

LSU is 10-3 (.769) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 14th-best in FBS; Average: .528

LSU is 5-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .587

LSU is 15-3 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .632

LSU is 15-3 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 13th-best in FBS; Average: .582

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Florida is 4-10 (.286) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .468

Florida is 10-2 (.833) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .752

Florida is 5-11 (.312) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .457

Florida is 4-10 (.286) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .413

Matchup Notes for LSU vs. Florida

Florida’s RBs have just 11.7 receiving yards per game this season — 11th-worst among FBS RBs. LSU’s defense has allowed 31.9 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU’s RBs has gained 395 yards on 40 receptions (9.9 YPR) this season — T-31st-best among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU’s RBs has gained 395 yards on 40 receptions (9.9 YPR) this season — T-31st-best among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense has allowed 11.6 Yards Per Reception to RBs this season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU’s RBs have 43.9 receiving yards per game this season — 12th-best among FBS RBs. Florida’s defense has allowed 36.2 receiving yards per game to RBs this season — 13th-worst among FBS defenses.

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

LSU WRs have 29 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

LSU WRs have 102 receptions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

LSU Skill Players have 118 receptions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

LSU Skill Players have 32 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

LSU WRs have 29 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida WRs have averaged just 1.0 yards per reception (1 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.6

Florida WRs have averaged 17.0 yards per reception (1,687 yards/99 catches) this season– T-3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.3

Florida WRs have averaged 19.6 yards per reception (333 yards/17 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.8

Florida Skill Players have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (192 yards/10 catches) in close and late situations this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 11.7

Florida WRs have caught just 1 of 5 passes (20% Reception Pct) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 66%

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

LSU allowed 4 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– most in the SEC

LSU allowed 6 rushing TDs last week– most among Power Conference Teams

LSU allowed 6 rushing TDs last week– most in the SEC

LSU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 45 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.

LSU has allowed 4.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (238 yards / 50 touches) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 3.3

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida allowed 5 TD passes last week– most among Power Conference Teams

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 25 of 598 attempts (4%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Florida allowed 5 TD passes last week– most in the SEC

Florida allowed 9 receptions for 20+ yards last week– most in the SEC

Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (5 completions/5 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 64%