- Michigan is a -11.5 point favorite vs. Northwestern
- Northwestern vs. Michigan Total (Over/Under): 37.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Northwestern Wildcats (4-6) visit Michigan Stadium to take on the Michigan Wolverines (5-5) on Nov. 23 in Ann Arbor, MI. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.
Michigan is a betting favorite in Week 13, with the spread sitting at -11.5 (-110).
The Northwestern vs. Michigan Over/Under is 37.5 total points.
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Northwestern vs. Michigan Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Northwestern | +11.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +350 |
| Michigan | -11.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -450 |
Northwestern vs Michigan Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Michigan will win this game with 79.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Northwestern and Michigan, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Northwestern vs Michigan Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Michigan will cover the spread with 72.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Northwestern Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Northwestern has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+5.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Northwestern has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+5.15 Units / 8% ROI)
- Northwestern has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.15 Units / 33% ROI)
- Northwestern have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Northwestern has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Michigan Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Michigan has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+6.45 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michigan have covered the 1Q Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.80 Units / 32% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+3.75 Units / 18% ROI)
- Michigan has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.70 Units / 33% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Northwestern players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Northwestern Player Prop Bets Today
- Cam Porter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- A.J. Henning has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jack Lausch has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Bryce Kirtz has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Mike Wright has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Michigan players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Michigan Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kalel Mullings has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Colston Loveland has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Davis Warren has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Donovan Edwards has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Semaj Morgan has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Northwestern Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Northwestern is 4-6 against the spread this college football season (-2.6 Units / -23.74% ROI).
- Northwestern is 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.1 Units / 1.87% ROI
- Northwestern is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Northwestern is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Michigan Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Michigan is 3-7 against the spread this college football season (-4.7 Units / -42.53% ROI).
- Michigan is 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.45 Units / -0.9% ROI
- Michigan is 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.6 Units / 14.55% ROI
- Michigan is 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.64% ROI
Northwestern: Keys to the Game vs. Michigan
Northwestern is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .537
Northwestern is 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities this season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .521
Northwestern is 7-3 (.700) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .505
Northwestern is 7-3 (.700) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .527
Michigan: Keys to the Game vs. Northwestern
Michigan is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards this season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .537
Michigan is 15-1 (.938) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .648
Michigan is undefeated (20-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .752
Michigan is 20-2 (.909) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .674
Matchup Notes for Northwestern vs. Michigan
Michigan’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.2% of 242 attempts this season — 2nd-worst among FBS offenses. Northwestern’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s offense has thrown for 1,346 passing yards in 10 games (just 134.6 YPG) this season — 6th-worst among FBS offenses. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 241.6 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan’s TEs has 67 receptions in 10 games (6.7 per game) this season — 2nd-best among P5 TEs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Northwestern has gained 1,785 yards on 169 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Northwestern has gained 1,785 yards on 169 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) this season — T-10th-worst among FBS skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Northwestern’s WRs has gained 1,218 yards on 100 receptions (just 12.2 YPR) this season — T-27th-worst among FBS WRs. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Northwestern Offensive Stats & Trends
Northwestern Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 33.8 receptions (169 Rec/5 TDs) this season– worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.1
Northwestern has gained 1,785 yards on 169 receptions (just 10.6 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten skill players. Michigan’s defense has allowed just 10.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.
Northwestern Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 33.8 receptions (169 Rec/5 TDs) this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.8
Northwestern Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 33.8 receptions (169 Rec/5 TDs) this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7
Northwestern WRs have averaged a touchdown every 33.3 receptions (100 Rec/3 TDs) this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.0
Michigan Offensive Stats & Trends
Michigan’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 6.2% of 242 attempts this season — 2nd-worst among FBS offenses. Northwestern’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.7% of attempts this season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Michigan’s offense has thrown for 1,346 passing yards in 10 games (just 134.6 YPG) this season — 6th-worst among FBS offenses. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 241.6 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Michigan’s TEs has 67 receptions in 10 games (6.7 per game) this season — 2nd-best among P5 TEs. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Michigan WRs have averaged just 5.9 receptions per game (59/10) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.8
Michigan’s QBs has thrown for 1,323 passing yards in 10 games (just 132.3 YPG) this season — 6th-worst among FBS teams. Northwestern’s defense has allowed 241.6 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten defenses.
Northwestern Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Northwestern has no interceptions (86 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 38.8
Northwestern has allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Northwestern allowed 16.5 yards per completion (247 yards/15 completions) last week– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 10.8
Northwestern has no interceptions (49 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.4
Northwestern has no interceptions (86 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 40.4
Michigan Wolverines Defensive Stats & Trends
Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.2
Michigan opponents averaged 51.6 Passing Attempts per TD (413 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.1
Michigan allowed 8 touchdowns on 229 completions (28.6 Completions Per TD) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 12.2
Michigan has averaged a sack every 6.8 pass attempts (34 Pass Attempts/5 Sacks) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 15.4
Michigan has allowed passes of 20+ yards on just 55 of 757 attempts (7%) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
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