Ohio State vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – College Football Playoffs

BetMGM Betting Jan 06, 2025, 2:30 PM

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FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisian’s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)

(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

Ohio State is a -6 point favorite vs. Texas
Ohio State vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 53.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Ohio State Buckeyes (12-2) visit AT&T Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (13-2) on Jan. 10 in Arlington, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Ohio State is a betting favorite in the Cotton Bowl, with the spread sitting at -6 (-110).

The Ohio State vs. Texas Over/Under is 53.5 total points.

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Ohio State vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Ohio State	-6 -110	53.5 -110	-225
Texas	+6 -110	53.5 -110	+185

Ohio State vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio State and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ohio State vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas will cover the spread with 53.1% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Ohio State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Ohio State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+2.10 Units / 8% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 22% ROI)

Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 14 games (+11.25 Units / 5% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 14 games (+8.65 Units / 1% ROI)
Texas have covered the 1H Spread in their last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Texas have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 63% ROI)
Texas has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ohio State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ohio State Player Prop Bets Today

Will Howard has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.40 Units / 97% ROI)
Jeremiah Smith has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Emeka Egbuka has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
Will Howard has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Quintrevion Wisner has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Gunnar Helm has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Matthew Golden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 65% ROI)
Isaiah Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State is 8-6 against the spread this college football season (+1.4 Units / 9.09% ROI).

Ohio State is 10-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.75 Units / -0.19% ROI
Ohio State is 7-7 when betting the Over for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI
Ohio State is 7-7 when betting the Under for -0.7 Units / -4.55% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 8-7 against the spread this college football season (+0.3 Units / 1.82% ROI).

Texas is 12-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.65 Units / 0.68% ROI
Texas is 6-8 when betting the Over for -2.8 Units / -16.97% ROI
Texas is 8-6 when betting the Under for +1.4 Units / 8.48% ROI

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Ohio State is 11-3 (.786) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .426

Ohio State is 20-3 (.870) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .568

Ohio State is winless (0-2) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .282

Ohio State is 21-2 (.913) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: .626

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Texas is 17-1 (.944) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: .523

Texas is 17-1 (.944) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .568

Texas is undefeated (21-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .734

Texas is 12-1 (.923) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .574

Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Texas

Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.7% of 502 attempts this season — 6th-best among FBS offenses. Ohio State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season — 5th-best among Big Ten defenses.

Texas’s QBs has thrown for 4,146 passing yards in 15 games (276.4 YPG) this season — 14th-best among FBS teams. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 152.4 passing yards per game this season — best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 3,688 passing yards in 14 games (263.4 YPG) this season — 29th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense has allowed just 166.0 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s TEs has 34 receptions in 14 games (just 2.4 per game) this season — 4th-worst among Big Ten TEs. Texas’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.2% of 401 attempts this season — T-17th-best among FBS offenses. Texas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.0% of attempts this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State has gained 3,688 yards on 283 receptions (13.0 YPR) this season — T-2nd-best among Big Ten skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 9.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s QBs has thrown for 3,688 passing yards in 14 games (263.4 YPG) this season — 28th-best among FBS teams. Texas’s defense has allowed just 166.0 passing yards per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas QBs have 22 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down this season– most among FBS Teams

Texas WRs have averaged 23.0 yards per reception (875 yards/38 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6

Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State opponents has averaged 82.0 Passing Attempts per TD (328 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 23.4

Ohio State opponents has averaged 82.0 Passing Attempts per TD (328 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.9

Ohio State opponents has averaged 10.3 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.0

Ohio State opponents has averaged 82.0 Passing Attempts per TD (328 Pass Attempts/4 Passing TDs) this season– best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Ohio State opponents has averaged 10.3 Passing Attempts per TD (31 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 3.9

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas has allowed just 9.1 yards per completion (2,194 yards/242 completions) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11.7

Texas opponents has averaged 58.3 Passing Attempts per TD (408 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.9

Texas opponents has averaged 58.3 Passing Attempts per TD (408 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 20.6

Texas opponents has averaged 58.3 Passing Attempts per TD (408 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 25.9

Texas has allowed 7 touchdowns on 242 completions (34.6 Completions Per TD) this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 12.5