- The Twins are -125 favorites to defend their AL Central crown.
- The preseason favorite hasn't won this division since 2021.
Despite being one of the weakest divisions in baseball, the American League Central has been interesting, with three different division champions in the last three years.
MLB odds expect the Minnesota Twins to defend their crown, becoming the first repeat AL Central champ since they accomplished the feat in 2019 and 2020.
But will the rest of the division have other plans?
AL Central Division Winner Odds
- Minnesota Twins -125
- Detroit Tigers +350
- Cleveland Guardians +375
- Kansas City Royals +900
- Chicago White Sox +5000
The Twins have -125 odds to win the division for an implied probability of 55.56%, but the preseason favorites haven’t had much success in the AL Central.
Last season, the Guardians were +125 preseason favorites to win the division before finishing third. The Twins won the AL Central after being +200 in the spring, while the Tigers took second after entering with +3000 odds.
In 2022, Cleveland was +1000 in the spring before claiming the division crown. The White Sox placed runner-up after being -160 preseason favorites.
Chicago was the last preseason favorite to win the AL Central, cashing a -125 ticket in 2021.
AL Central Win Totals & Projected Standings
| Team | FanGraphs | PECOTA | BetMGM Win Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 84.9-77.1 | 90.1-71.9 | 86.5 |
| Guardians | 80.2-81.8 | 82-80 | 79.5 |
| Tigers | 79.2-82.8 | 75.2-86.8 | 81.5 |
| Royals | 76-86 | 71.2-90.8 | 73.5 |
| White Sox | 66.4-95.6 | 65.7-96.3 | 60.5 |
Projections and MLB betting markets agree that the Twins are the favorites. They also agree the Royals and White Sox will finish fourth and fifth, respectively.
Yet the most significant difference comes in the battle for AL Central’s runner-up.
Projections favor Cleveland’s chances of doing so, thanks to a forecast of 79-plus victories at both FanGraphs and PECOTA. Baseball odds prefer the Tigers, listing them with a win total of 81.5.
Bettors have had a lot to say about that, as the Tigers are the most popular bet to win this division in terms of tickets and handle. They haven’t won the AL Central since 2014.
AL Central Betting Prediction
Prediction: Twins to win AL Central (-125)
There are plenty of long-shot bets to consider making in this division.
Minnesota’s Royce Lewis is my favorite AL MVP odds sleeper at +4000. Bobby Witt Jr.’s MVP odds are also worth watching.
In addition, Tarik Skubal (Tigers) and Cole Ragans (Royals) are AL Cy Young odds candidates.
But the Twins winning the AL Central is the most likely outcome for the 2024 season.
FanGraphs gives them a 55% chance of winning the AL Central, and even that might be a bit light, given they are the only team projected to finish above .500. PECOTA believes the Twins have a 72.5% chance of winning the division.
Minnesota traded at -210 to win the division after one month of last year’s regular season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a similar path this summer.
AL Central Team Previews & Predictions
Cleveland Guardians
Stephen Vogt, who played for the Athletics in 2022, replaces longtime manager Terry Francona. He is +1000 to win AL Manager of the Year.
Kansas City Royals
There are several ways to bet on Kansas City superstar Bobby Witt Jr. But a season-long home run prop might be the best betting angle.
Detroit Tigers
The Tigers haven’t posted a winning season since 2016, but their preseason win total is 81.5. They are a trendy pick to win the AL Central.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins won a playoff series last fall for the first time since 2002. They are now -125 to win the AL Central for the second straight season.
Chicago White Sox
After trading away their best pitcher, the White Sox offer value to record the fewest wins in the majors during the 2024 season.
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