- The Phillies are -130 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Bryce Elder, 7.04 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Cristopher Sánchez, 0.00 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH+
The Atlanta Braves (+110) visit BayCare Ballpark to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-130) on Tuesday, March 14, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Clearwater.
The Phillies are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Braves are 4-5 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 4-7 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -175 | O 9.5 -110 | +110 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +145 | U 9.5 -110 | -130 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Tuesday‘s Spring Training matchup with 58.2% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games (+4.05 Units / 203% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.35 Units / 89% ROI)
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 65% ROI)
- Bryson Stott has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.50 Units / 125% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.50 Units / 31% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 129 games (+16.15 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+15.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 70 of their last 121 games (+14.08 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 39 games at home (+10.93 Units / 21% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 36 of their last 62 games at home (+10.35 Units / 14% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 4-7 against the Run Line (-3.85 Units / -29.5% ROI).
- 4-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -14.42% ROI
- 7-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 22.82% ROI
- 4-7 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.65 Units / -29.92% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 4-7 against the Run Line (-4 Units / -29.96% ROI).
- 5-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -2.88% ROI
- 8-3 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.55 Units / 36.84% ROI
- 3-8 when betting on the total runs Under for -5.65 Units / -47.48% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 54% (31/57) against Bryce Elder over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 14th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 91st Percentile.
41% of Bryce Elder’s strikeouts were looking over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 94th Percentile.
Opponents batted just .100 (2-for-20) against Bryce Elder when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 95th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters had a groundball rate of 58% (15/26) against Bryce Elder over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 9th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 13 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 90th Percentile.
Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Cristopher Sanchez has limited playing time.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 46-35 (.568) on the road last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 47-34 (.580) at home last season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .782 (1,638 PA’s) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters slugged .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
The Phillies batted .176 on pitches out of the zone last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
The Phillies batted .260 at home last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Phillies hitters slugged .237 on pitches out of the zone last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .214.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Braves pitchers allowed the 30th hardest ball in play hit (122.4 MPH) last season (; League Avg: 117.3).
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of the 2021 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of the 2021 season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .256 against Phillies pitchers with the shift last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .221.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Philadelphia Phillies – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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