- The Cubs are -125 favorites vs the Mets
- Cubs vs Mets Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Cubs / Mets TV Channel: SNY | MARQ
The Chicago Cubs (-125) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (+105) on Wednesday, May 1, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, NY.
This season, the Cubs are 18-12 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 15-14 ATS.
Cubs vs Mets Starting Pitchers Today:
- Cubs starting pitcher: Shota Imanaga 4-0, 0.98 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jose Butto 0-1, 2.87 ERA
Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +140 | O 7.5 -115 | -125 |
| Mets | +1.5 -165 | U 7.5 -105 | +105 |
Cubs vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 54.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Michael Busch has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 11 away games (+18.10 Units / 165% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 16 games (+12.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+12.05 Units / 64% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+11.10 Units / 76% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+10.60 Units / 62% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Tomas Nido has hit the Home Runs Over in 1 of his last 4 games (+11.00 Units / 275% ROI)
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Starling Marte has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 18 games (+9.25 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+8.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- Omar Narvaez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.35 Units / 76% ROI)
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+9.21 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 57 of their last 100 games (+5.95 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 61 of their last 108 games (+16.50 Units / 14% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 32 of their last 51 games (+15.55 Units / 24% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 17 games at home (+4.95 Units / 25% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Cubs are 21-9 against the Run Line (+9.55 Units / 21.7% ROI).
- 18-12 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.3 Units / 19.95% ROI
- 13-17 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.65 Units / -17.07% ROI
- 17-13 when betting on the total runs Under for +2.85 Units / 8.65% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mets are 15-14 against the Run Line (+2.45 Units / 6.98% ROI).
- 15-14 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 2.65% ROI
- 13-14 when betting on the total runs Over for -2.4 Units / -8.07% ROI
- 14-13 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.25 Units / -0.84% ROI
Mets vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -550 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Dansby Swanson (CHC) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1000 |
Mets vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Nico Hoerner (CHC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Brandon Nimmo (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +175 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Starling Marte (NYM) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
| Jeff McNeil (NYM) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
Mets vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Christopher Morel (CHC) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| J.D Martinez (NYM) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
| Ian Happ (CHC) | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
Mets vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OBP of just .111 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has not walked any of the 45 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 100th Percentile.
Shota Imanaga has allowed an OPS of just .244 (45 PA’s) when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .695 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .056 (1-for-18) against Shota Imanaga when going through the lineup the first time in a game over the last 14 days — tied for best among NL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: .226 — 100th Percentile.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Butto has a strike rate of just 51% (42/83) with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 64% — 0 Percentile.
Jose Butto has a strike rate of just 56% (209/370) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 64% — first Percentile.
Opponents have no hits on elevated fastballs in 16 AB’s against Jose Butto this season — tied for best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .214 — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased 17 of Jose Butto’s 35 fastballs in off the plate (49%) this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 27% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 35-38 (.479) after a loss as favorites since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .589.
The Cubs are just 9-13 (.409) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are 23-19 (.548) after a loss as underdogs since the 2023 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .424.
The Cubs are just 21-27 (.438) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are just 12-70 (.146) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .215.
The Mets are just 7-133 (.050) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .095.
The Mets are just 8-43 (.157) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Mets are 161-12 (.931) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .356 (488 PA’s) at home this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
The Cubs are batting just .189 with two outs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .229.
Cubs hitters have an OBP of .356 (223 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .318.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of .790 (1,940 PA’s) against LHP since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .736.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
Mets hitters have put 45% of their swings in play against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Mets hitters have an OPS of just .873 (207 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.066.
Mets hitters have just 38 strikeouts in 248 PA’s (15%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .326 (9,309 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 15 double plays in 236 opportunities (6%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .236 against Cubs pitchers with runners on base since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .258.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 88.4 MPH since last season (4,797 balls in play) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since last season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Mets pitchers have walked 126 of 1,113 batters (11%) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% with runners in scoring position since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets pitchers have walked 173 of 1,673 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mets pitchers have a strikeout rate of 24% this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ronny Mauricio (New York Mets): Knee, 60-Day IL
- Sean Reid-Foley (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Tylor Megill (New York Mets): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- David Peterson (New York Mets): Hip, 60-Day IL
- Kodai Senga (New York Mets): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Patrick Wisdom (Chicago Cubs): Back, 10-Day IL
- Justin Steele (Chicago Cubs): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Brennen Davis (Chicago Cubs): Undisclosed, Out
- Tyler Duffey (Chicago Cubs): Back, Day-To-Day
- Jameson Taillon (Chicago Cubs): Back, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Kilian (Chicago Cubs): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
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