- The Mariners are -135 favorites vs the Astros
- Mariners vs Astros Over / Under today: 7 Runs
- Mariners / Astros TV Channel: SCHN | RTNW | MLBN
The Seattle Mariners (-135) visit Minute Maid Park to take on the Houston Astros (+115) on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Houston, TX.
This season, the Mariners are 81-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Astros are 79-79 ATS.
Mariners vs Astros Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: George Kirby 13-11, 3.49 ERA
- Astros starting pitcher: Yusei Kikuchi 9-9, 4.19 ERA
Mariners vs. Astros Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | -1.5 +140 | O 7 +100 | -135 |
| Astros | +1.5 -165 | U 7 -120 | +115 |
Mariners vs Astros Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mariners will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 57.2% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Luke Raley has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 32 games (+29.50 Units / 92% ROI)
- Randy Arozarena has hit the Total Bases Over in 21 of his last 28 games (+12.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- Justin Turner has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 22 games (+11.85 Units / 54% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Singles Over in 19 of his last 25 away games (+11.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Walks Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.50 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Jason Heyward has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 games (+20.10 Units / 251% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 21 games at home (+14.50 Units / 54% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 21 games at home (+11.35 Units / 36% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 21 games at home (+10.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Yainer Diaz has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games (+9.45 Units / 31% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 64 away games (+19.15 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 away games (+7.75 Units / 60% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 31 of their last 52 away games (+7.55 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.65 Units / 15% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 81 of their last 141 games (+19.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 56 of their last 100 games (+14.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 53 of their last 85 games (+10.05 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Over in 35 of their last 58 games at home (+9.40 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 70-88 against the Run Line (-21.8 Units / -10.94% ROI).
- 81-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.95 Units / -7.66% ROI
- 72-76 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.8 Units / -6.26% ROI
- 76-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -3 Units / -1.73% ROI
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Astros are 79-79 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 0.91% ROI).
- 86-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.95 Units / -4.26% ROI
- 64-89 when betting on the total runs Over for -33.25 Units / -19.24% ROI
- 89-64 when betting on the total runs Under for +18.15 Units / 10.37% ROI
Astros vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -550 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -700 |
| Justin Turner (SEA) | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -900 |
Astros vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Victor Robles (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +195 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| Jose Altuve (HOU) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Kyle Tucker (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Astros vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Alex Bregman (HOU) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Yainer Diaz (HOU) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Randy Arozarena (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Astros vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby (SEA) | 4.5 -140 | 4.5 +105 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
George Kirby has walked 14 of 565 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 23 of 781 batters (3%) when going through the lineup the second time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has walked 28 of 792 batters (4%) when going through the lineup the first time in a game since the 2022 season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — 100th Percentile.
George Kirby has thrown elevated pitches 44% of the time (1,721/3,949) against right-handed batters since the 2022 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Yusei Kikuchi has thrown his changeup for a strike just 46% (146/317) of the time this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 61% — first Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has thrown breaking pitches 48% of the time (254/526) when behind in the count this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Yusei Kikuchi has allowed a slugging percentage of just .322 (82 Total Bases / 255 ABs) when going through the lineup the second time in a game this season — 8th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .383 — 86th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .276 (71-for-257) against Yusei Kikuchi when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for 6th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .231 — 12th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 61-7 (.897) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
The Mariners are 144-3 (.980) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .949.
The Mariners are 213-4 (.982) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Mariners are just 62-16 (.795) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .856.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are just 0-54 (.000) when trailing entering the 9th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .050.
The Astros are just 4-10 (.286) after a loss as underdogs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .434.
The Astros are just 12-23 (.343) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 201-30 (.870) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .796.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mariners are batting just .225 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
The Mariners are batting just .202 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
The Mariners are batting just .141 with two-strikes this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .317 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .436.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters are averaging just 3.64 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
Astros hitters have just 959 strikeouts in 5,296 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .267 against LHP since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
15% of Astros’ hitters plate appearances have lasted only one pitch (918/5,987 PA’s) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 12%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mariners pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 25% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners pitchers have walked 360 of 5,654 batters (6%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .276 (5,641 PA’s) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .312.
Mariners pitchers have walked 74 of 1,404 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers this season is 388.2 feet — best in MLB; League Avg: 397.6
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since the 2022 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Astros pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Astros vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
- Seattle Mariners – No Injuries Reported
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