- The Padres are -115 favorites vs the Giants
- Padres starting pitcher: Blake Snell
- Giants starting pitcher: Logan Webb
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The San Diego Padres (-115) visit Oracle Park to take on the San Francisco Giants (-105) on Monday, September 25, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 9:45pm EDT in San Francisco.
The Padres are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+155).
The Padres vs Giants Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
This season, the Padres are 77-79 against the spread (ATS), while the Giants are 70-86 ATS.
Padres vs. Giants Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Padres | -1.5 +155 | O 7 -120 | -115 |
| Giants | +1.5 -190 | U 7 +100 | -105 |
Padres vs Giants Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Monday‘s MLB matchup with 55.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Padres and Giants and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Padres vs Giants and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Padres Player Prop Bets Today:
- Blake Snell has hit the Earned Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games (+14.80 Units / 44% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+14.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+12.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+12.05 Units / 31% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+11.65 Units / 48% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Giants Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Logan Webb has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 22 of his last 30 games (+14.45 Units / 37% ROI)
- Thairo Estrada has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 38 games (+12.20 Units / 18% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 14 of his last 17 games at home (+10.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.70 Units / 62% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 16 games at home (+10.60 Units / 60% ROI)
Giants vs Padres Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +1100 | 0.5 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Luis Matos | 0.5 +1050 | 0.5 |
Giants vs Padres Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +140 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +180 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 1.5 +170 | 1.5 -225 |
| Luis Matos | 0.5 -150 | 0.5 +115 |
Giants vs Padres RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ji-man Choi | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| J.D. Davis | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Ha-seong Kim | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -300 |
| Luis Matos | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -400 |
Giants vs Padres Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Webb | 4.5 -105 | 4.5 -120 |
| Blake Snell | 7.5 -130 | 7.5 +100 |
Padres Best Bets Today:
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 149 games (+11.70 Units / 7% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 21 games (+8.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.38 Units / 26% ROI)
- The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 8 of their last 11 away games (+5.83 Units / 51% ROI)
Giants Best Bets Today:
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 68 of their last 109 games (+23.02 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 80 of their last 142 games (+16.10 Units / 10% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 49 of their last 79 games (+16.03 Units / 18% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 41 games at home (+7.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- The San Francisco Giants have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 67 games at home (+4.20 Units / 5% ROI)
Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Padres have gone 78-78 against the Run Line (-5.7 Units / -3% ROI).
- 77-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -30.55 Units / -13.14% ROI
- 66-80 when betting on the total runs Over for -23.25 Units / -13.37% ROI
- 80-66 when betting on the total runs Under for +8.45 Units / 4.98% ROI
Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 70-86 against the Run Line (-26.3 Units / -13.06% ROI).
- 77-79 when betting on the Moneyline for -16 Units / -7.87% ROI
- 68-85 when betting on the total runs Over for -26.4 Units / -15.22% ROI
- 85-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +11.25 Units / 6.62% ROI
Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Blake Snell has walked 97 of 717 batters (14%) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 37% (486/1,312) against Blake Snell this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .025 (1-for-40) against Blake Snell — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .227 — 100th Percentile.
24 of Blake Snell’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 100th Percentile.
Giants Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (370/593) against Logan Webb this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Webb has thrown his changeup 41% of the time (1,260/3,072) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Webb has thrown his changeup 44% of the time (246/555) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 16% — 100th Percentile.
Logan Webb has thrown his changeup 38% of the time (816/2,140) in non-two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 14% — 100th Percentile.
Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants
The Padres are just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
The Padres are 47-7 (.870) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .797.
The Padres are just 14-28 (.333) after a win as underdogs since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Padres are just 6-121 (.047) when trailing entering the 8th inning since last season — tied for 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .092.
Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres
The Giants are just 32-59 (.352) after a road loss since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.
The Giants are 129-3 (.977) when leading entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .951.
The Giants are 20-11 (.645) after a home loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .505.
The Giants are 31-31 (.500) after a win as underdogs since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Padres Hitting Stats & Trends
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 45% against LHP since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Padres hitters have an OBP of .395 (207 PA’s) against LHP over the last 30 days (17 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .323.
The Padres are just 2-13 (.133) after a win as underdogs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .438.
Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 44% this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Giants Hitting Stats & Trends
Giants hitters have an OPS of just .481 (3,168 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .524.
Giants hitters are slugging just .404 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .450.
The Giants are batting just .242 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Giants are batting just .232 on the road this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Padres Pitching Stats & Trends
Padres pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.0 MPH (3,753 batted balls) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Padres pitchers this season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .196 against Padres pitchers with the shift since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .230.
Padres pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 40% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.
Giants Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 49% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants pitchers have walked 83 of 1,374 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Giants vs. Padres Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Keaton Winn (Giants): COVID-19, D10
- Roberto Pérez (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Mark Mathias (Giants): Shoulder, D60
- Jakob Junis (Giants): Neck, Day-to-Day
- Brandon Crawford (Giants): Hamstring, D10
- Alexander Cobb (Giants): Hip, D15
- Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Arm, D60
- Cole Waites (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Scott Alexander (Giants): Hamstring, D15
- Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Elbow, D60
- Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow/Flexor, D60
- Timothy Hill (Padres): Finger, D60
- Steven Wilson (Padres): Hip, D15
- Jacob Cronenworth (Padres): Wrist, D10
- Alek Jacob (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Drew Carlton (Padres): Elbow, D60
- Gary Sánchez (Padres): Wrist, D60
- Matthew Carpenter (Padres): Elbow, D10
- Joseph Musgrove (Padres): Shoulder, D15
- Yu Darvish (Padres): Elbow, D15
- David Knehr (Padres): Elbow, D60
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