The Philadelphia Phillies (+120) visit JetBlue Park at Fenway South to take on the Boston Red Sox (-145) on Monday, February 26, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Fort Myers, FL.
Last season, the Phillies were 98-77 against the spread (ATS), while the Red Sox were 78-84 ATS.
Phillies vs. Red Sox Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Phillies | +120 |
| Red Sox | -145 |
Phillies vs Red Sox Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Monday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Phillies Player Prop Bets Today:
- Trea Turner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.05 Units / 79% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+2.85 Units / 95% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 2 away games (+2.25 Units / 112% ROI)
- Johan Rojas has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kody Clemens has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Red Sox players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Red Sox Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Rafael Devers has hit the Hits Under in his last 3 games at home (+4.90 Units / 102% ROI)
- Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+3.80 Units / 190% ROI)
- Rafael Devers has hit the RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.95 Units / 98% ROI)
- Luis Urias has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+2.70 Units / 90% ROI)
- Masataka Yoshida has hit the RBIs Over in 1 of his last 2 games (+0.90 Units / 45% ROI)
Phillies Best Bets Today:
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 73 of their last 118 games (+13.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 70 games (+11.85 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Over in 17 of their last 24 away games (+9.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+7.18 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.21 Units / 41% ROI)
Red Sox Best Bets Today:
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 19 games (+10.60 Units / 50% ROI)
- The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 10 of their last 15 games (+5.49 Units / 34% ROI)
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Phillies went 80-95 against the Run Line (-20.3 Units / -9.48% ROI).
- 98-77 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.45 Units / -0.99% ROI
- 78-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.95 Units / -6.74% ROI
- 83-78 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.9 Units / -1.5% ROI
Red Sox Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread last MLB season, the Red Sox went 78-84 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -9.73% ROI).
- 78-84 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.05 Units / -6.98% ROI
- 81-75 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.5 Units / -0.84% ROI
- 75-81 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.7 Units / -8.23% ROI
Red Sox Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 15% (12/81) versus Tanner Houck with runners in scoring position in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 61% (88/144) against Tanner Houck’s fastball in the 2023 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 40% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 53% (169/317) against Tanner Houck in the 2023 season — 10th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 94th Percentile.
Tanner Houck has allowed an average Exit Velocity of 89.2 MPH on inside pitches since last season (158 balls in play) — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 85.7
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Red Sox
The Phillies are 27-115 (.190) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Phillies were 69-7 (.908) when leading entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .859.
The Phillies were 7-64 (.099) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) after a road win since last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .494.
Red Sox Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Red Sox were just 17-25 (.405) after a home loss in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Red Sox were 63-3 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .900.
The Red Sox were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .052.
The Red Sox are just 3-138 (.021) when trailing entering the 9th inning since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .049.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies batted .166 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
Phillies hitters had an OPS of .790 (3,042 PA’s) at home in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .746.
Phillies hitters slugged .454 against LHP in the 2023 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .419.
The Phillies batted .252 with two outs in the 2023 season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .237.
Red Sox Hitting Stats & Trends
The Red Sox batted .182 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .151.
The Red Sox batted .300 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .267.
Red Sox hitters slugged .266 on pitches out of the zone in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .211.
Red Sox hitters slugged .505 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .455.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 88.4 MPH (4,019 batted balls) in the 2023 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 89.0.
Phillies pitchers won 40% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Phillies pitchers induced opposing hitters to ground into just 95 double plays in 1,088 opportunities (9%) in the 2023 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.
Phillies pitchers had a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes in the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Red Sox Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .265 against Red Sox pitchers with the shift in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .240.
The Red Sox have won 43% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Opponents had a swing rate of 49% against the Red Sox pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Red Sox pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 208 times since the 2021 season — tied for 4th most in MLB.
Red Sox vs. Phillies Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- David Hamilton (Boston Red Sox): Thumb, Out
- Wyatt Mills (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Vaughn Grissom (Boston Red Sox): Hamstring, Out
- Michael Fulmer (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Out
- Dinelson Lamet (Boston Red Sox): Personal, Day-To-Day
- Connor Wong (Boston Red Sox): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Jarren Duran (Boston Red Sox): Toe, Out
- Kenley Jansen (Boston Red Sox): Lat, Out
- Brandon Marsh (Philadelphia Phillies): Knee, Out
- Erich Uelmen (Philadelphia Phillies): Forearm, Out
- Alec Bohm (Philadelphia Phillies): Neck, Day-To-Day
- Rafael Marchan (Philadelphia Phillies): Back, Day-To-Day
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