- The Royals are -120 favorites vs the Nationals
- Royals vs Nationals Over / Under today: 7.5 Runs
- Royals / Nationals TV Channel: MAS2 | BSKC
The Kansas City Royals (-130) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+110) on Wednesday, September 25, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45pm EDT in Washington, DC.
This season, the Royals are 83-74 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 87-70 ATS.
Royals vs Nationals Starting Pitchers Today:
- Royals starting pitcher: Michael Lorenzen 7-6, 3.46 ERA
- Nationals starting pitcher: Davidjohn Herz 4-8, 4.29 ERA
Royals vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Royals | -1.5 +135 | O 7.5 -105 | -130 |
| Nationals | +1.5 -160 | U 7.5 -115 | +110 |
Royals vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Royals will win Wednesday‘s MLB game with 53.3% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Bets Today:
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 39 of his last 50 games (+21.95 Units / 28% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 25 away games (+19.50 Units / 78% ROI)
- Tommy Pham has hit the Walks Under in 18 of his last 20 games (+14.30 Units / 34% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 22 of his last 32 games (+12.35 Units / 35% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 46 games (+12.30 Units / 18% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Wednesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Juan Yepez has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games at home (+13.70 Units / 55% ROI)
- James Wood has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 47 games (+12.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+11.95 Units / 34% ROI)
- Luis Garcia has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 22 games at home (+10.45 Units / 28% ROI)
- Dylan Crews has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+9.15 Units / 34% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 22 games (+10.40 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 34 away games (+9.15 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 23 games (+6.75 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 153 games (+5.90 Units / 3% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+9.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 149 games (+9.25 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+7.25 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 8 of their last 9 games at home (+6.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 6 games at home (+6.15 Units / 89% ROI)
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Royals are 85-72 against the Run Line (+2.3 Units / 1.09% ROI).
- 83-74 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 1.36% ROI
- 68-83 when betting on the total runs Over for -22.95 Units / -13.44% ROI
- 83-68 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.5 Units / 4.34% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Nationals are 87-70 against the Run Line (+5.3 Units / 2.56% ROI).
- 69-88 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -0.8% ROI
- 72-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -11.8 Units / -6.89% ROI
- 77-72 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.05 Units / -1.75% ROI
Nationals vs Royals Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -300 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -375 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joey Gallo (WAS) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
| Tommy Pham (KC) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -600 |
Nationals vs Royals Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Dylan Crews (WAS) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Tommy Pham (KC) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
Nationals vs Royals RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Salvador Perez (KC) | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -155 |
| Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| Jose Tena (WAS) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Hunter Renfroe (KC) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -225 |
| Luis Garcia (WAS) | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
Nationals vs Royals Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| DJ Herz (WAS) | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +115 |
| Michael Lorenzen (KC) | 3.5 +135 | 3.5 -185 |
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a BABIP of .171 vs left-handed batters this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .287 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has walked 29 of 196 batters (15%) versus the top of the order this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 0 Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .155 (32-for-207) against Michael Lorenzen this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.
Michael Lorenzen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .271 (56 Total Bases / 207 ABs) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: .409 — 98th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Davidjohn Herz has not allowed a hit in the first inning in any of his last five games dating back to August 25th — Jakob Junis has the longest active streak at 6.
Davidjohn Herz has a strikeout rate of 44% (33 SO in 75 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 31% (127/407) against Davidjohn Herz on fastballs this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 19% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a miss rate of 41% (82/199) against Davidjohn Herz on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 62 total IP; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Royals are just 24-106 (.185) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .361.
The Royals are just 40-56 (.417) vs the bottom 10 runs allowed teams since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .577.
The Royals are just 25-42 (.373) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Royals are just 44-47 (.484) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .626.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Nationals are 11-2 (.846) after a loss as favorites since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .582.
The Nationals are just 40-59 (.404) vs bottom 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .568.
The Nationals are just 96-142 (.403) at home since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .526.
The Nationals are just 37-57 (.394) after a home win since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .531.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have just 836 strikeouts in 4,395 PA’s (19%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Royals hitters have just 1,115 strikeouts in 5,811 PA’s (19%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Royals won only 28% of their road games in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
Royals hitters are slugging .245 on pitches out of the zone this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .205.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters have an OPS of just .945 (2,187 PA’s) with the pitcher behind in the count since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 1.087.
The Nationals are batting just .223 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .262.
Nationals hitters have an OBP of just .296 (1,615 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .327.
The Nationals are batting just .239 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have an ERA of 2.97 (460.2 IP) against division opponents this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.07.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 21% since the 2022 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .282 against Royals pitchers with runners on base since the 2022 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .256.
Royals pitchers won only 14% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 24% against Nationals pitchers since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Nationals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% with runners in scoring position since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Nationals vs. Royals Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Washington Nationals – No Injuries Reported
- Kansas City Royals – No Injuries Reported
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