- The Twins are -185 favorites vs the Tigers
- Tigers vs Twins Over / Under today: 8 Runs
- Tigers / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | BSDT
The Detroit Tigers (+150) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-185) on Thursday, July 4, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Tigers are 39-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 41-45 ATS.
Tigers vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Tigers starting pitcher: Kenta Maeda 2-4, 5.87 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Bailey Ober 7-4, 4.32 ERA
Tigers vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Tigers | +1.5 -135 | O 8 -115 | +150 |
| Twins | -1.5 +115 | U 8 -105 | -185 |
Tigers vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 60.0% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Tigers players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Tigers Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Vierling has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 26 games (+22.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 19 games (+14.45 Units / 41% ROI)
- Riley Greene has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 25 games (+13.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- Gio Urshela has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 18 games (+12.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Matt Vierling has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 games (+11.95 Units / 56% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Trevor Larnach has hit the Walks Under in 21 of his last 24 games (+15.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 19 of his last 27 games (+11.65 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Runs Over in 21 of his last 35 games (+11.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 82% ROI)
- Max Kepler has hit the RBIs Under in 21 of his last 27 games (+9.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Tigers Best Bets Today:
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 69 games (+10.05 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the Team Total Under in 16 of their last 22 away games (+9.25 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+8.70 Units / 36% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+3.35 Units / 55% ROI)
- The Detroit Tigers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.40 Units / 45% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 43 of their last 69 games (+12.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 8 of their last 10 games (+8.55 Units / 77% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 66 games (+8.30 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 20 games (+7.50 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)
Tigers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Tigers are 38-48 against the Run Line (-15.8 Units / -13.65% ROI).
- 39-47 when betting on the Moneyline for -11.65 Units / -11.67% ROI
- 45-35 when betting on the total runs Over for +6.15 Units / 6.71% ROI
- 35-45 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -15.91% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 41-45 against the Run Line (-5.15 Units / -4.73% ROI).
- 48-38 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.65 Units / -0.54% ROI
- 42-40 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.9 Units / -2.03% ROI
- 40-42 when betting on the total runs Under for -6.35 Units / -6.78% ROI
Twins vs Tigers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Riley Greene (DET) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -750 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
Twins vs Tigers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Gio Urshela (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +190 |
| Matt Vierling (DET) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Manuel Margot (MIN) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Colt Keith (DET) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
| Willi Castro (MIN) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +170 |
Twins vs Tigers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -185 |
| Carlos Correa (MIN) | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -225 |
Twins vs Tigers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Kenta Maeda (DET) | 3.5 -135 | 3.5 +100 |
| Bailey Ober (MIN) | 5.5 -135 | 5.5 +105 |
Tigers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 31% (54/175) against Kenta Maeda in two-strike counts since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 24% (40/164) against Kenta Maeda on sliders since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 162 total IP; League Avg: 41% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 25% (43/173) against Kenta Maeda’s curve and slider since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 98 total IP; League Avg: 42% — second Percentile.
Kenta Maeda has thrown at least two strikes in his first three pitches to 50% (97/193) of opposing batters this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 33 total IP; League Avg: 65% — first Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 29% (26/90) against Bailey Ober in two-strike counts this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — second Percentile.
Bailey Ober has a strikeout rate of 70% (19 SO in 27 PAs) with two-strikes over the last 14 days — 2nd best among AL Starters over the last two weeks; League Avg: 43% — 97th Percentile.
Bailey Ober has an ERA of 7.62 (28.1 IP) against division opponents this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 3.66 — first Percentile.
Bailey Ober has allowed a slugging percentage of .639 (46 Total Bases / 72 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .358 — first Percentile.
Tigers Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Tigers are just 25-58 (.301) vs top 10 scoring offenses since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .420.
The Tigers are just 26-8 (.765) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .858.
The Tigers are just 28-158 (.151) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .206.
The Tigers are just 25-106 (.191) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Tigers
The Twins are 52-17 (.754) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .620.
The Twins are 14-26 (.350) when allowing 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .198.
The Twins are just 22-32 (.407) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Twins are 110-1 (.991) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .948.
Tigers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Tigers are batting just .308 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Tigers hitters are slugging just .507 on the first pitch of at-bats since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .574.
Tigers hitters have an OPS of just .650 (11,511 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Tigers hitters have an OBP of just .290 (11,511 PA’s) against RHP since the 2022 season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .314.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting .281 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .790 (812 PA’s) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .758 (1,040 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .679.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .766 (2,988 PA’s) in innings 7-9 since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .699.
Tigers Pitching Stats & Trends
Tigers pitchers have walked 310 of 3,635 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2022 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Tigers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 35% with runners in scoring position over the last 14 days — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 27% against Tigers pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Tigers pitchers have won only 14% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have walked 219 of 3,181 batters (7%) this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have walked 662 of 9,209 batters (7%) since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Twins pitchers since the 2022 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Twins vs. Tigers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Austin Meadows (Detroit Tigers): Personal, Out
- Matthew Boyd (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Sawyer Gipson-Long (Detroit Tigers): Groin, 15-Day IL
- Brendan White (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Day-To-Day
- Freddy Pacheco (Detroit Tigers): Elbow, Out
- Garrett Hill (Detroit Tigers): Lat, Out
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