Chiefs vs Bills Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 11

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(AP Photo/Joshua Bessex)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 17, 2024, 9:48 AM

The Bills are -2.5 point favorites vs the Chiefs
Total (Over/Under): 46 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Kansas City Chiefs (9-0-0) visit Highmark Stadium to take on the Buffalo Bills (8-2-0) on Nov. 17. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:25pm EST in Orchard Park, NY.

The Bills are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).

The Chiefs vs. Bills Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.

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Chiefs vs. Bills Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Chiefs	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+115
Bills	-2.5 -110	46 -110	-135

Chiefs vs. Bills Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Bills will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Chiefs vs Bills Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Bills will cover the spread with 63.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today

Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 9 away games (+7.35 Units / 71% ROI)
Xavier Worthy has hit the Receptions Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.65 Units / 52% ROI)
Noah Gray has hit the Receptions Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+6.47 Units / 66% ROI)
Isiah Pacheco has hit the Carries Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.90 Units / 50% ROI)
Xavier Worthy has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.85 Units / 64% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Bills players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Bills Player Prop Best Bets Today

Khalil Shakir has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+7.40 Units / 33% ROI)
James Cook has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Amari Cooper has hit the Receptions Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+3.80 Units / 20% ROI)
Curtis Samuel has hit the Receptions Under in 5 of his last 7 games at home (+3.25 Units / 38% ROI)
Tyler Bass has hit the Field Goals Over in 6 of his last 9 games at home (+3.00 Units / 31% ROI)

Chiefs Best Bets:

The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.25 Units / 33% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 away games (+7.35 Units / 29% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.50 Units / 29% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2H Moneyline in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.27 Units / 20% ROI)
The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.05 Units / 27% ROI)

Bills Best Bets:

The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 16 of their last 20 games (+12.60 Units / 54% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 3Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+7.15 Units / 22% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games at home (+7.05 Units / 55% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have covered the 3Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.60 Units / 24% ROI)
The Buffalo Bills have hit the 2H Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+4.90 Units / 26% ROI)

Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 4-4 (-0.35 Units / -3.61% ROI).

Chiefs are 9-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +9.2 Units / 38.41% ROI
Chiefs are 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Chiefs are 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / ROI

Bills Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Bills are 6-4 (+1.7 Units / 15.6% ROI).

Bills are 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.2 Units / 30.24% ROI
Bills are 6-4 when betting the Over for +1.5 Units / 13.51% ROI
Bills are 4-6 when betting the Under for -2.6 Units / -23.85% ROI

Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Buffalo Bills

The Chiefs are 11-4 (.733) when rushing less than 25 times since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .270.

Buffalo Bills: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs

The Bills are undefeated (4-0) when tied at the end of quarter 1 since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.

The Bills are 11-1 (.917) at home since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: .541.

The Bills are undefeated (11-0) when allowing an average of less than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .617.

Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Buffalo Bills

The Bills have averaged just -0.63 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed just -0.63 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.

The Bills have run 19.7% offensive plays in the red zone this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponent to run 17.8% of plays in the red zone this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

The Bills ran successful plays on 52.9% of pass attempts against a base rush last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Chiefs allowed successful plays on 55.6% of pass attempts with a base rush last week — 2nd-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 60.1% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Bills have allowed successful plays on 54.5% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs have gone three and out on 16.7% of their drives this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Bills have forced three and outs on 16.3% of opponent drives this season — 4th-worst in NFL.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on just 21.1% of rush attempts last week — worst in NFL. The Bills allowed successful plays on just 22.7% of rush attempts last week — 4th-best in NFL.

Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 72% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 79% of plays against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.

The Chiefs have run successful plays on 71% of plays against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Chiefs ran successful plays on 68% of pass attempts against a heavy rush last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.

Buffalo Bills Offense: Important Stats

The Bills went three and out on 12% of their drives last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Bills ran successful plays on 50% of plays in the 2nd half last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Bills have gone three and out on 7% of their drives in the 3rd quarter this season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 23%.

The Bills ran successful plays on 51% of plays in the 4th quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats

The Chiefs defense has allowed a passer rating of 120.2 on contested throws (28 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 72.3.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 13% of plays with tight coverage since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 22%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed successful plays on 13% of pass attempts with tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

The Chiefs defense has allowed 78.6 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 129.2.

Buffalo Bills Defense: Important Stats

The Bills defense have allowed -1.00 epa per play with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.42.

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 7% of pass attempts with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 41%.

The Bills defense has allowed successful plays on 13% of plays with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 40%.

The Bills defense have allowed -0.76 epa per play with a light rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.01.

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