- The Chiefs are -4 point favorites vs the Browns
- Total (Over/Under): 43.5 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Kansas City Chiefs (12-1-0) visit Huntington Bank Field to take on the Cleveland Browns (3-10-0) on Dec. 15. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EST in Cleveland, OH.
The Chiefs are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -4 (-115).
The Chiefs vs. Browns Over/Under is 43.5 total points for the game.
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Chiefs vs. Browns Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Chiefs | -4 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -225 |
| Browns | +4 -105 | 43.5 -120 | +185 |
Chiefs vs. Browns Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Chiefs will win this game with 79.9% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Chiefs vs Browns Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Browns will cover the spread with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Chiefs players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Chiefs Player Prop Bets Today
- Noah Gray has hit the Receptions Over in 13 of his last 18 games (+9.32 Units / 45% ROI)
- Carson Steele has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- Noah Gray has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Carries Over in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Patrick Mahomes has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 9 away games (+4.75 Units / 44% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Browns players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Browns Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jerome Ford has hit the Carries Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.55 Units / 46% ROI)
- Deshaun Watson has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Deshaun Watson has hit the Interceptions Under in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.40 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jerry Jeudy has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.10 Units / 21% ROI)
- Elijah Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 11 of his last 17 games (+4.05 Units / 20% ROI)
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Browns vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 16.5 -115 | 16.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Browns vs Chiefs
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Jerome Ford (CLE) | 22.5 -120 | 22.5 -110 |
| Nick Chubb (CLE) | 40.5 -115 | 40.5 -115 |
Chiefs Best Bets:
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 away games (+8.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 15 of their last 22 games (+8.20 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 19 games (+5.75 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have covered the 4Q Spread in 12 of their last 19 games (+4.15 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Kansas City Chiefs have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.95 Units / 18% ROI)
Browns Best Bets:
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+7.15 Units / 68% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 8 games at home (+5.85 Units / 63% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 games at home (+2.85 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 11 of their last 21 games (+2.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cleveland Browns have hit the Game Total Over in 12 of their last 21 games (+2.10 Units / 9% ROI)
Chiefs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Chiefs art 4-8 (-4.65 Units / -33.21% ROI).
- Chiefs are 12-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.2 Units / 27.32% ROI
- Chiefs are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
- Chiefs are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / ROI
Browns Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Browns are 4-9 (-5.95 Units / -41.18% ROI).
- Browns are 3-10 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.85 Units / -43.35% ROI
- Browns are 6-7 when betting the Over for -1.7 Units / -11.89% ROI
- Browns are 7-6 when betting the Under for +0.4 Units / 2.8% ROI
Kansas City Chiefs: Keys to the Game vs. the Cleveland Browns
The Chiefs are undefeated (9-0) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Chiefs are 7-1 (.875) when forcing 1 or more turnovers this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Browns have turned the ball over 21 times this season — T-3rd-most in NFL.
The Chiefs are 16-5 (.762) when forcing 1 or more turnovers since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL. The Browns have turned the ball over 59 times since the 2023 season — most in NFL.
The Chiefs are 5-0 (1.000) when not throwing an interception this season — T-best in NFL. The Browns have intercepted 4 passes this season — T-3rd-fewest in NFL.
Cleveland Browns: Keys to the Game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs
The Browns were 3-1 (.750) when not forcing a turnover last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .265.
The Browns were 6-1 (.857) when allowing less than 100 rushing yards last season — T-6th-best in NFL; League Avg: .664.
The Browns are 1-8 (.111) when making less than 5 explosive passes in a game this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .416.
The Browns were 11-6 (.647) last season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
Additional Matchup Notes for Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have been successful on just 33.1% of plays they have run with motion this season — worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.0% of plays against motion this season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Browns have been successful on just 37.8% of plays they have run against a base rush since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.5% of plays with a base rush since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Browns have run successful plays on just 34.6% of rush attempts with motion this season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Chiefs have allowed successful plays on just 36.1% of rush attempts against motion this season — T-2nd-best in NFL.
The Chiefs have averaged just -0.72 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Browns have allowed just -0.58 epa per play with tight coverage since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best in NFL.
The Chiefs have allowed opponents to pressure their QB on 27.6% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-worst in NFL. The Browns have pressured opposing QBs on 27.8% of passing plays since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
Chiefs WRs have averaged 5.9 yards after the catch this season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Browns have allowed 5.7 yards after catch per reception to WRs this season — worst in NFL.
Kansas City Chiefs Offense: Important Stats
The Chiefs have averaged -0.72 epa per play against tight coverage since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.47.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 63% of plays against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Chiefs have run successful plays on 65% of pass attempts against a heavy rush since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Chiefs have converted first downs on 93 of 179 plays (52%) on 3rd down this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 39%.
Cleveland Browns Offense: Important Stats
The Browns have averaged -0.29 epa per play on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 22% on motion plays this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Browns have a third down conversion rate of 29% on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 41%.
The Browns have run successful plays on 36% of pass attempts on motion plays since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
Kansas City Chiefs Defense: Important Stats
The Chiefs defense has allowed 78.3 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 127.1.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a passer rating of 104.4 on contested throws (55 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 71.8.
The Chiefs defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 8% on third and 10+ yards to go since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 17%.
The Chiefs defense allowed scores on 28% of opponent drives last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 35%.
Cleveland Browns Defense: Important Stats
The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 34% of pass attempts from their own territory last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 47%.
The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 35% of pass attempts last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 45%.
The Browns defense allowed -0.11 epa per play first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 0.20.
The Browns defense allowed successful plays on 38% of pass attempts first read passes last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 52%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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