- The Texans are -5 point favorites vs the Colts
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on CBS
The Indianapolis Colts (4-3-0) visit NRG Stadium to take on the Houston Texans (5-2-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Houston, TX.
The Texans are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -5 (-110).
The Colts vs. Texans Over/Under is 45.5 total points for the game.
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Colts vs. Texans Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Colts | +5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +200 |
| Texans | -5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -250 |
Colts vs. Texans Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Texans will win this game with 68.7% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Colts vs Texans Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Texans will cover the spread with 57.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today
- Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+8.65 Units / 43% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.40 Units / 68% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Pass Attempts Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 65% ROI)
- Joe Flacco has hit the Interceptions Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 49% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Texans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Texans Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Longest Reception Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.70 Units / 59% ROI)
- Stefon Diggs has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 13 of his last 19 games (+6.10 Units / 27% ROI)
- C.J. Stroud has hit the Interceptions Under in 13 of his last 18 games (+5.35 Units / 18% ROI)
- Joe Mixon has hit the Longest Rush Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- Dameon Pierce has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.70 Units / 51% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Colts
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | +450 |
| Stefon Diggs (HOU) | +650 |
| Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | +700 |
| Tank Dell (Hou) | +850 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Texans vs Colts
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | -175 |
| Stefon Diggs (HOU) | +105 |
| Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | +120 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Texans vs Colts
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Stefon Diggs (HOU) | 62.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 16.5 -115 | 16.5 -115 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Texans vs Colts
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| CJ Stroud (HOU) | 11.5 -120 | 11.5 -110 |
| Joe Mixon (HOU) | 75.5 -115 | 75.5 -115 |
| Jonathan Taylor (IND) | 60.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 |
Colts Best Bets:
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.95 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.80 Units / 62% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+3.90 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 3Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 17 games (+1.65 Units / 8% ROI)
Texans Best Bets:
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.75 Units / 52% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 20 games (+5.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 4Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+4.55 Units / 34% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have hit the 2H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.65 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Houston Texans have covered the 4Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.55 Units / 29% ROI)
Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts art 6-1 (+4.9 Units / 64.9% ROI).
- Colts are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 12.27% ROI
- Colts are 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Colts are 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / ROI
Texans Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Texans are 3-3 (-0.3 Units / -3.95% ROI).
- Texans are 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.7 Units / 20.22% ROI
- Texans are 2-5 when betting the Over for -3.6 Units / -46.15% ROI
- Texans are 5-2 when betting the Under for +2.8 Units / 36.84% ROI
Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Houston Texans
The Colts were undefeated (8-0) when leading at the end of the first half last season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .783.
The Colts are 4-2 (.667) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Colts are 4-2 (.667) when within 7 points at the two minute warning this season — T-5th-best in NFL; League Avg: .500.
The Colts were 2-6 (.250) when losing at least one fumble last season — T-6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .382.
Houston Texans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts
The Texans are 6-1 (.857) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed an average of 134.8 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 11-3 (.786) when possessing the ball longer than their opponent since the 2023 season — T-5th-best in NFL. The Colts has allowed an average time of possession of 32 min and 23 s since the 2023 season — 2nd-highest in NFL.
The Texans are winless (0-6) vs top 10 defenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .470.
The Texans are winless (0-6) vs top 10 defenses since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: .470.
Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
The Texans have a third down conversion rate of 48.3% in the fourth quarter this season — 4th-best in NFL. The Colts defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 53.6% in the 4th quarter this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Texans are 6-1 (.857) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed an average of 134.8 rushing yards per game since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Texans ran successful plays on just 35.3% of pass attempts against a base rush last week — 5th-worst in NFL. The Colts pressured opposing QBs on 37.5% of pass attempts with a base rush last week — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Colts have been successful on just 37.2% of plays they have ran with motion since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 40.0% of plays against motion since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on just 31.6% of rush attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 37.5% of rush attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.
The Colts have run successful plays on just 33.5% of rush attempts with motion since the 2023 season — worst in NFL. The Texans have allowed successful plays on just 36.9% of rush attempts against motion since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.
Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats
The Colts have run successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Colts have run successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Colts converted first downs on just 61 of 279 plays (22%) in the 4th quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 26%.
The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
Houston Texans Offense: Important Stats
The Texans ran successful plays on 25% of rush attempts against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Texans have run successful plays on 27% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans ran successful plays on 29% of plays against a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 43%.
The Texans averaged -0.19 epa per play against a stacked front last season — 2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: 0.01.
Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats
The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 82% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 51%.
The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.
The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 62% of plays on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 62% of pass attempts on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.
Houston Texans Defense: Important Stats
The Texans defense has allowed successful plays on 4% of plays with tight coverage this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 24%.
The Texans defense allowed a passer rating of just 64.7 in the red zone (63 Pass Attempts) last season — 2nd-best in NFL; League Avg: 93.0.
The Texans defense has allowed opponents to catch just 10 of 30 passes (33% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 62%.
The Texans defense allowed successful plays on 30% of rush attempts with a stacked front last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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