Colts vs Titans Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NFL, Week 6

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Tennessee Titans wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins makes a catch during NFL football practice Tuesday, June 4, 2024, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/George Walker IV)

(AP Photo/George Walker IV)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 09, 2024, 12:03 PM

The Colts are -1 point favorites vs the Titans
Total (Over/Under): 43 points
Watch this game on CBS

The Indianapolis Colts (2-3-0) visit Nissan Stadium to take on the Tennessee Titans (1-3-0) on Oct. 13. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Nashville, TN.

The Colts are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -1 (-110).

The Colts vs. Titans Over/Under is 43 total points for the game.

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Colts vs. Titans Odds, Spread, Over/Under

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Colts	-1 -110	43 -110	-120
Titans	+1 -110	43 -110	+100

Colts vs. Titans Prediction

The winning team model predicts the Titans will win this game with 51.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

Colts vs Titans Spread Prediction

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Titans will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Colts players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colts Player Prop Bets Today

Kylen Granson has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.10 Units / 36% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 7 games (+7.05 Units / 89% ROI)
Joe Flacco has hit the TD Passes Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+6.20 Units / 62% ROI)
Mo Alie-Cox has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games (+5.10 Units / 94% ROI)
Jonathan Taylor has hit the Longest Reception Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 74% ROI)

And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Titans players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Titans Player Prop Best Bets Today

Chigoziem Okonkwo has hit the Longest Reception Over in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Nick Westbrook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 90% ROI)
Nick Folk has hit the Field Goals Under in 7 of his last 9 games at home (+4.50 Units / 39% ROI)
Will Levis has hit the Completions Under in 9 of his last 13 games (+4.20 Units / 26% ROI)
Tony Pollard has hit the Longest Reception Under in 8 of his last 11 games (+4.15 Units / 29% ROI)

Colts Best Bets:

The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 21 games (+6.90 Units / 29% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 1Q Moneyline in 11 of their last 21 games (+5.75 Units / 22% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the Game Total Over in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.20 Units / 18% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have covered the Spread in 13 of their last 21 games (+4.10 Units / 18% ROI)
The Indianapolis Colts have hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)

Titans Best Bets:

The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Moneyline in 13 of their last 20 games (+9.65 Units / 38% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 10 of their last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 31% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have covered the 1H Spread in 8 of their last 11 games at home (+4.55 Units / 37% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+3.75 Units / 32% ROI)
The Tennessee Titans have scored first in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 52% ROI)

Colts Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Colts art 4-1 (+2.9 Units / 53.21% ROI).

Colts are 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.15 Units / -20.35% ROI
Colts are 3-2 when betting the Over for +0.8 Units / 14.55% ROI
Colts are 2-3 when betting the Under for -1.3 Units / ROI

Titans Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this NFL season, the Titans are 1-3 (-2.3 Units / -53.49% ROI).

Titans are 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -48.91% ROI
Titans are 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
Titans are 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI

Indianapolis Colts: Keys to the Game vs. the Tennessee Titans

The Colts were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Colts are winless (0-10) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Colts were 9-5 (.643) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties last season — T-8th-best in NFL; League Avg: .505.

The Colts were 7-2 (.778) when not losing a fumble last season — T-7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .578.

Tennessee Titans: Keys to the Game vs. the Indianapolis Colts

The Titans were 1-2 (.333) when forcing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-2nd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .707.

The Titans were winless (0-8) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.

The Titans were 1-7 (.125) when converting less than 55% of its red zone chances into touchdowns last season — 3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .464.

The Titans were 3-7 (.300) when within 7 points entering the 4th quarter last season — 6th-worst in NFL; League Avg: .500.

Additional Matchup Notes for Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

The Titans have run successful plays on 63.6% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Colts have allowed successful plays on 81.8% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.

The Titans have run successful plays on 63.6% of pass attempts against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-best in NFL. The Colts have pressured opposing QBs on 9.1% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst in NFL.

Titans WRs have averaged just 3.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL. The Colts have allowed just 3.7 yards after catch per reception to WRs since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on just 43.8% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed successful plays on just 44.8% of pass attempts on play action passes since the 2023 season — 4th-best in NFL.

The Colts have a third down conversion rate of 37.5% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — T-best in NFL. The Titans defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 25.0% on 3rd and 10+ YTG this season — T-3rd-worst in NFL.

The Colts have been successful on just 37.0% of plays they have ran against a stacked front since the 2023 season — 4th-worst in NFL. The Titans have allowed their opponents to be successful on just 38.4% of plays with a stacked front since the 2023 season — 5th-best in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Offense: Important Stats

The Colts turned the ball over on downs 6 times in the red zone last season — most in NFL.

The Colts have run successful plays on 58% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter since the 2023 season — best in NFL; League Avg: 43%.

The Colts ran successful plays on 57% of rush attempts in the 1st quarter last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 44%.

The Colts have a third down conversion rate of 38% on third and 10+ yards to go this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 18%.

Tennessee Titans Offense: Important Stats

The Titans have allowed a QB Hit on 29% of pass attempts since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 17%.

The Titans have averaged -0.59 epa per play against a light front this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: -0.02.

The Titans have run 34% of their plays in their opponent’s territory in the 2nd half this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.

The Titans have run 1,223 plays since the 2023 season — fewest in NFL.

Indianapolis Colts Defense: Important Stats

The Colts defense allowed successful plays on 88% of pass attempts with a stacked front last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Colts defense has allowed successful plays on 82% of pass attempts with a stacked front since the 2023 season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

The Colts defense allowed an average of 4.5 yards after contact per carry (23 carries) in Week 5 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 2.0.

The Colts defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 57% with tight coverage this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 21%.

Tennessee Titans Defense: Important Stats

The Titans defense has allowed successful plays on 75% of pass attempts on contested throws this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 34%.

The Titans defense has allowed a passer rating of 156.3 on contested throws (8 Pass Attempts) this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 71.9.

The Titans defense allowed 9 rushing TDs on 89 carries (9.9 Carries Per TD) in the red zone last season — best Carries Per TD rate in NFL; League Avg: 5.6.

The Titans defense has allowed successful plays on 24% of pass attempts against play action passes this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 50%.

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