- The Falcons are -2.5 point favorites vs the Buccaneers
- Total (Over/Under): 46 points
- Watch this game on FOX
The Atlanta Falcons (4-3-0) visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3-0) on Oct. 27. Kickoff is scheduled for 1:00pm EDT in Tampa, FL.
The Falcons are betting favorites in this matchup, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-115).
The Falcons vs. Buccaneers Over/Under is 46 total points for the game.
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Falcons vs. Buccaneers Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Falcons | -2.5 -115 | 46 -110 | -145 |
| Buccaneers | +2.5 -105 | 46 -110 | +120 |
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The winning team model predicts the Falcons will win this game with 58.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
Falcons vs Buccaneers Spread Prediction
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts the Buccaneers will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite NFL player prop bets for Falcons players this playoff game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Falcons Player Prop Bets Today
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Receptions Under in 12 of his last 17 games (+7.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Tyler Allgeier has hit the Longest Rush Under in his last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Kirk Cousins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.70 Units / 53% ROI)
- Darnell Mooney has hit the Receptions Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.10 Units / 22% ROI)
- Kyle Pitts has hit the Longest Reception Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+4.80 Units / 46% ROI)
And here are some top NFL player prop bets for Buccaneers players for this matchup, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Buccaneers Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Baker Mayfield has hit the TD Passes Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+12.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Rachaad White has hit the Carries Over in 12 of his last 18 games (+5.50 Units / 27% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Completions Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.50 Units / 25% ROI)
- Baker Mayfield has hit the Passing Yards Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- Trey Palmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 60% ROI)
First Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Falcons
| Player Name | 1st TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | +400 |
| Drake London (Atl) | +750 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | +850 |
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet for Buccaneers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Anytime TD Odds |
|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | -145 |
| Drake London (Atl) | +110 |
Receiving Props: Total Receiving Yards for Buccaneers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 22.5 -115 | 22.5 -115 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 19.5 -115 | 19.5 -120 |
Rushing Props: Total Rushing Yards for Buccaneers vs Falcons
| Player Name | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson (ATL) | 63.5 -120 | 63.5 -110 |
| Rachaad White (TB) | 40.5 -110 | 40.5 -120 |
Falcons Best Bets:
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.05 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 12 of their last 20 games (+4.10 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the Team Total Over in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.20 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Atlanta Falcons have hit the 2H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.60 Units / 24% ROI)
Buccaneers Best Bets:
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored last in 10 of their last 13 games (+7.65 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+6.65 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have hit the Team Total Over in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.30 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered the 2Q Spread in 13 of their last 20 games (+5.20 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have scored first in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.95 Units / 48% ROI)
Falcons Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Falcons art 3-4 (-1.5 Units / -19.23% ROI).
- Falcons are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.5 Units / 4.52% ROI
- Falcons are 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -18.18% ROI
- Falcons are 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / ROI
Buccaneers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this NFL season, the Buccaneers are 4-3 (+0.7 Units / 9.09% ROI).
- Buccaneers are 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.45 Units / 13.94% ROI
- Buccaneers are 5-2 when betting the Over for +2.8 Units / 36.36% ROI
- Buccaneers are 2-5 when betting the Under for -3.5 Units / -45.45% ROI
Atlanta Falcons: Keys to the Game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Falcons were winless (0-3) when rushing less than 25 times last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .276.
The Falcons are 2-8 (.200) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .460.
The Falcons are 2-8 (.200) vs top 10 run defenses since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst in NFL; League Avg: .460.
The Falcons are 3-1 (.750) when not losing a fumble this season — T-7th-best in NFL; League Avg: .574.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the Game vs. the Atlanta Falcons
The Buccaneers were winless (0-5) when committing 2 or more turnovers last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .293.
The Buccaneers are undefeated (6-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: .585.
The Buccaneers were winless (0-7) when trailing at the end of the third quarter last season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .148.
The Buccaneers are winless (0-9) when trailing at the end of the third quarter since the 2023 season — T-worst in NFL; League Avg: .142.
Additional Matchup Notes for Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of 50.0% this season — T-best in NFL. The Falcons defense has allowed a third down conversion rate of 46.7% this season — 4th-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have been successful on 56.0% of plays they have ran against a base rush this season — best in NFL. The Falcons have allowed their opponents to be successful on 48.3% of plays with a base rush this season — 3rd-worst in NFL.
The Buccaneers have gone three and out on 15.2% of their drives this season — 5th-best in NFL. The Falcons have forced three and outs on 15.9% of opponent drives this season — 5th-worst in NFL.
Falcons TEs have 71.3 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of63.5 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
The Falcons went three and out on 9.1% of their drives last week — 3rd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers forced three and outs on 10% of opponent drives last week — T-4th-worst in NFL.
Falcons TEs have 71.3 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best in NFL. The Buccaneers have allowed an average of63.5 receiving yards per game to TEs since the 2023 season — worst in NFL.
Atlanta Falcons Offense: Important Stats
The Falcons targeted WRs 39% of the time (209 Pass Attempts/530 plays) last season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have targeted WRs 47% of the time (366 Pass Attempts/774 plays) since the 2023 season — lowest in NFL; League Avg: 57%.
The Falcons have averaged 0.82 epa per play against a heavy rush this season — best in NFL; League Avg: -0.14.
The Falcons committed 6 turnovers in the red zone last season — most in NFL.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers have thrown for 18 TDs this season — most in NFL.
The Buccaneers have run successful plays on 60% of pass attempts on motion plays this season — best in NFL; League Avg: 46%.
The Buccaneers ran successful plays on 26% of rush attempts in the 3rd quarter last season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 42%.
The Buccaneers have a third down conversion rate of 50% this season — T-best in NFL; League Avg: 38%.
Atlanta Falcons Defense: Important Stats
The Falcons defense has averaged a sack every 37.5 pass attempts (225 Pass Attempts/6 Sacks) this season — worst attempts per sack rate in NFL; League Avg: 13.8.
Offenses facing the Falcons threw deep balls on 28% of pass attempts (8/29) in Week 7 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
Offenses facing the Falcons threw deep balls on 28% of pass attempts (8/29) in Week 7 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
Offenses facing the Falcons threw deep balls on 28% of pass attempts (8/29) in Week 7 — highest in NFL; League Avg: 12%.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense: Important Stats
The Buccaneers defense allowed 5 TD passes in Week 7 — most in NFL.
The Buccaneers defense allowed a passer rating of just 25.3 with a stacked front (16 Pass Attempts) last season — best in NFL; League Avg: 110.0.
The Buccaneers defense has allowed successful plays on 71% of plays against play action passes this season — worst in NFL; League Avg: 48%.
The Buccaneers defense allowed 11.2 yards from scrimmage per touch (525 yards / 47 touches) in Week 7 — worst in NFL; League Avg: 7.3.
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More NFL Betting Predictions:
- Anytime & First Touchdown Scorer Predictions
- Receiving Yards Prop Predictions
- Rushing Yards Prop Predictions
- Passing Yards Prop Predictions
- Receptions Made Prop Predictions
- Rushing Attempts Prop Predictions
- Passing Touchdowns Prop Predictions
- QB Interception Prop Predictions
- Field Goals Made Prop Predictions
- NFL Betting Previews: Every Game
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