- The last two World Series champions have come from the AL West.
- Houston is the preseason favorite to win the division.
The American League West has been responsible for the last two championships, with the Texas Rangers winning their first World Series in 2023 and the Houston Astros securing the crown in 2022.
But the division race has been pretty straightforward in recent years. The Astros have placed first in six of the last seven seasons.
MLB odds project a more competitive race in 2024, but who will come out on top?
AL West Division Winner Odds
- Houston Astros -110
- Texas Rangers +225
- Seattle Mariners +280
- Los Angeles Angels +5000
- Oakland Athletics +25000
Houston is the preseason favorite for the ninth year in a row, but its MLB betting price was plus-money when markets first opened. The odds have gone from +115 to -110.
The Astros have been minus odds to win the AL West six times during the preseason over the last nine years.
Houston’s AL West preseason odds:
- 2023: -185
- 2022: -165
- 2021: +130
- 2020: -170
- 2019: -900
- 2018: -445
- 2017: -105
- 2016: +135
AL West Win Totals & Projected Standings
| Team | FanGraphs | PECOTA | BetMGM Win Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 90.5-71.5 | 95-67 | 92.5 |
| Mariners | 85.3-76.7 | 83.9-78.1 | 87.5 |
| Rangers | 81.8-80.2 | 85.9-76.1 | 88.5 |
| Angels | 77.6-84.4 | 73.5-88.5 | 72.5 |
| Athletics | 70.9-91.1 | 64.8-97.2 | 57.5 |
For the most part, baseball odds and projections agree on the outlook of the AL West.
Houston is the early front-runner, though PECOTA projects the largest gap between first and second place. The Rangers and Astros’ baseball betting win totals differ by four games.
FanGraphs projects Seattle to finish second by three wins ahead of the defending world champions, while PECOTA has Texas finishing one win better as runner-up.
The Angels and Athletics come in at fourth and fifth, respectively, but both teams are projected for better results than the preseason win totals indicate.
AL West Betting Prediction
Prediction: The American League West to win the ALCS (+135)
The AL West has won the last three pennants, going 2-1 in the World Series. But they enter 2024 as the No. 2 option in this three-team market, behind the AL East (+120).
While the AL East has more depth, the teams in the AL West might offer a higher upside come playoff time.
The Rangers are coming off a World Series run and will receive pitching reinforcements later in the year for their stretch run. The Astros have reached the ALCS seven straight years and have won four pennants.
Seattle isn’t an ordinary third-place team in the division, either. The Mariners’ starting rotation is built to be the best in the AL.
Even if the AL East sends the same number of teams (or more) to the postseason, the AL West could again have more playoff success.
AL West Team Previews & Predictions
Los Angeles Angels
After losing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani in the offseason, the Angels have their lowest win total since 1994 with an over/under of 72.5.
Houston Astros
The Astros are preseason favorites to win the division for the ninth year in a row, but this just the third time they have had plus-money odds in the spring.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics have the lowest MLB win total ever tracked at 57.5, though projections expect them to improve after a 50-win season in 2023.
Seattle Mariners
After missing last year’s postseason, the Mariners are -165 to return to the playoffs. Their upside is as real of some recent championship teams.
Texas Rangers
Coming off their first World Series victory in franchise history, the Rangers have their highest win total since the 2012 season.
2024 MLB Division Previews & Predictions
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