Astros vs Braves Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 21

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 21, 2022, 9:14 AM
  • The Braves (75-47) are -150 favorites vs the Astros (77-45)
  • Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (11-4), 3.68 ERA
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (6-5), 4.03 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Houston Astros (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-150) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 76-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 63-57 ATS.

Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros+1.5 -160O 8 -110+125
Braves -1.5 +135U 8 -110-150

Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Braves vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+12.10 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)

Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 63 of his last 110 games (+16.30 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 72 games (+15.30 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+15.05 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.50 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 63 of his last 108 games (+12.85 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 109 games (+26.25 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+14.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 96 games (+20.27 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 89 games (+1.50 Units / 1% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 61-59 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 1.93% ROI).

  • 76-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 2.4% ROI
  • 44-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.45 Units / -23.99% ROI
  • 70-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.4 Units / 16.05% ROI

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 63-57 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.23% ROI).

  • 73-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.79% ROI
  • 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.07% ROI
  • 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.6% ROI

Jose Urquidy has struck out just 17% (46/279) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 13th Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 70% (424/602) in two strike counts this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 88th Percentile.

Left-handed batters are hitting just .081 (3-for-37) against Jose Urquidy this month (3 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 98th Percentile.

Jose Urquidy has allowed a slugging percentage of .498 (128 Total Bases / 257 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — third Percentile.

Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Charlie Morton has struck out 49% (18/37) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,098/2,520) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (21/55) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 29% (115/393) against Charlie Morton this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 85th Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Astros are 40-6 (.870) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.

The Astros are 64-7 (.901) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .887.

The Astros are just 3-33 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.

The Astros are 32-4 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Braves are 11-2 (.846) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 66-14 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

Astros hitters have just 627 strikeouts in 3,470 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have just 2,125 strikeouts in 10,864 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 247 strikeouts in 1,389 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Braves hitters are slugging .677 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .555.

Braves hitters are slugging .499 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .852 (914 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.

Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (1080.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.

Astros pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.49 (2526.0 IP) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have walked 4 of 171 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Braves pitchers this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Illness, D10
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
  • Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
  • Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
  • Mauricio Dubón (Astros): Elbow, Day-to-Day

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.