- The Braves (75-47) are -150 favorites vs the Astros (77-45)
- Astros starting pitcher: José Urquidy (11-4), 3.68 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (6-5), 4.03 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Houston Astros (+125) visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves (-150) on Sunday, August 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Astros vs Braves Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 76-44 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 63-57 ATS.
Astros vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -160 | O 8 -110 | +125 |
| Braves | -1.5 +135 | U 8 -110 | -150 |
Astros vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+13.70 Units / 60% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 23 games (+13.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 18 of his last 27 games (+12.10 Units / 39% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 16 of his last 22 games (+12.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 37% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 63 of his last 110 games (+16.30 Units / 13% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 72 games (+15.30 Units / 12% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 28 of his last 42 games at home (+15.05 Units / 21% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+13.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 63 of his last 108 games (+12.85 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 71 of their last 109 games (+26.25 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+14.40 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.00 Units / 32% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 96 games (+20.27 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games (+8.20 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 53 of their last 89 games (+1.50 Units / 1% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 61-59 against the Run Line (+2.7 Units / 1.93% ROI).
- 76-44 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.9 Units / 2.4% ROI
- 44-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -31.45 Units / -23.99% ROI
- 70-44 when betting on the total runs Under for +21.4 Units / 16.05% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 63-57 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 73-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.79% ROI
- 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.07% ROI
- 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.6% ROI
José Urquidy: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jose Urquidy has struck out just 17% (46/279) of right-handed batters he faced this season — 8th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 13th Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has a strike rate of 70% (424/602) in two strike counts this season — 8th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 88th Percentile.
Left-handed batters are hitting just .081 (3-for-37) against Jose Urquidy this month (3 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .230 — 98th Percentile.
Jose Urquidy has allowed a slugging percentage of .498 (128 Total Bases / 257 ABs) against right-handed batters this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .387 — third Percentile.
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Charlie Morton has struck out 49% (18/37) of right-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 44% of the time (1,098/2,520) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 38% (21/55) against Charlie Morton on elevated fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 29% (115/393) against Charlie Morton this season — 10th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 85th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Astros are 40-6 (.870) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .712.
The Astros are 64-7 (.901) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .887.
The Astros are just 3-33 (.083) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .113.
The Astros are 32-4 (.889) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Braves are 11-2 (.846) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 9-3 (.750) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 66-14 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Braves are 30-3 (.909) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 627 strikeouts in 3,470 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,125 strikeouts in 10,864 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 247 strikeouts in 1,389 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .677 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .555.
Braves hitters are slugging .499 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .389.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .852 (914 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .721.
Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 29% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.07 (1080.2 IP) this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 3.98.
Astros pitchers have won 42% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.49 (2526.0 IP) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have walked 4 of 171 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 30% against Braves pitchers this month (19 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Ehire Adrianza (Braves): Illness, D10
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
- Aledmys Díaz (Astros): Groin, D10
- Yordan Alvarez (Astros): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Mauricio Dubón (Astros): Elbow, Day-to-Day
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