- The Cardinals are -145 favorites vs the Astros
- Astros starting pitcher: Framber Valdez
- Cardinals starting pitcher: Adam Wainwright, 4.50 ERA
The Houston Astros (+120) visit Roger Dean Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals (-145) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EST in Jupiter.
The Cardinals are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+140).
The Astros vs Cardinals Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
During Spring Training, the Astros are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Cardinals are 3-1 ATS.
Astros vs. Cardinals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | +1.5 -165 | O 8 -105 | +120 |
| Cardinals | -1.5 +140 | U 8 -115 | -145 |
Astros vs Cardinals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cardinals will win Thursday‘s matchup with 55.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Cardinals and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Astros vs Cardinals and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today:
- Christian Vazquez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 3 games (+3.30 Units / 70% ROI)
- Jason Castro has hit the Runs Over in 3 of his last 6 games (+1.95 Units / 32% ROI)
- Trey Mancini has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 away games (+1.00 Units / 22% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.85 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 2 of his last 3 games (+0.70 Units / 17% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cardinals players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cardinals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Nolan Gorman has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Albert Pujols has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+1.40 Units / 44% ROI)
- Paul DeJong has hit the Runs Under in 4 of his last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
Astros Best Bets Today:
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 96 of their last 162 games (+33.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 100 of their last 173 games (+31.20 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 102 of their last 162 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 110 of their last 159 games (+28.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 86 of their last 156 games (+18.65 Units / 10% ROI)
Cardinals Best Bets Today:
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 67 games at home (+13.05 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have covered the Run Line in 39 of their last 67 games at home (+13.00 Units / 16% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Over in 40 of their last 67 games at home (+9.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 52 of their last 96 games (+7.25 Units / 7% ROI)
- The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 20 of their last 33 games at home (+6.85 Units / 19% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-1 Units / -28.57% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -1.33% ROI
- 1-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -1.25 Units / -36.23% ROI
- 2-1 when betting on the total runs Under for +1 Units / 31.75% ROI
Cardinals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cardinals have gone 3-1 against the Run Line (+2.5 Units / 48.54% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.4 Units / 25.23% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -4.49% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -3.45% ROI
Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 67% (372/555) against Framber Valdez last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 68% (119/174) against Framber Valdez in two-strike counts last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 68% (636/933) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 69% (539/783) against Framber Valdez since the start of the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 100th Percentile.
Cardinals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adam Wainwright has thrown breaking pitches 58% of the time (763/1,304) when behind in the count since the start of the 2021 season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents had a two strike miss rate of just 15% (81/521) against Adam Wainwright last season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — second Percentile.
Adam Wainwright threw breaking pitches 59% of the time (384/652) when ahead in the count last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Adam Wainwright had averaged 88.4 MPH on fastballs last season — tied for lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 93.4 — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Cardinals
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 86-8 (.915) when leading entering the 7th inning last season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .881.
Cardinals Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Cardinals are 16-4 (.800) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cardinals are 47-11 (.810) when totaling 10 or more hits last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Cardinals are 49-9 (.845) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Cardinals are 71-4 (.947) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters struck out just 321 times in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have just 2,401 strikeouts in 12,345 PA’s (19%) since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Cardinals Hitting Stats & Trends
Cardinals hitters are slugging .469 against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .407.
Cardinals hitters have an OPS of .803 (2,611 PA’s) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Cardinals hitters have 260 extra-base hits out of 599 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Cardinals hitters had an OPS of .808 (1,366 PA’s) against LHP last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers had an ERA of 2.73 (734.0 IP) at home last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.82.
Astros pitchers had a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of the 2021 season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Cardinals Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of 48% against Cardinals pitchers last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 23% against Cardinals pitchers since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Cardinals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 39% with two-strikes since the start of the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cardinals vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- St. Louis Cardinals – No Injuries Reported
- Houston Astros – No Injuries Reported
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