- The Astros (62-32) are -150 favorites vs the Mariners (51-43)
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander (12-3), 1.89 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert (10-3), 2.75 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Houston Astros (-150) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (+125) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Astros vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 62-32 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 49-45 ATS.
Astros vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +120 | O 7 -115 | -150 |
| Mariners | +1.5 -145 | U 7 -105 | +125 |
Astros vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Saturday‘s matchup with 58.8% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Yuli Gurriel has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 29 away games (+9.05 Units / 30% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the RBIs Over in 12 of his last 18 away games (+8.80 Units / 49% ROI)
- Yordan Alvarez has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+8.75 Units / 51% ROI)
- Michael Brantley has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 28 away games (+7.95 Units / 19% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 34 games at home (+20.30 Units / 35% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 45 of his last 61 games (+19.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Over in 49 of his last 85 games (+13.40 Units / 13% ROI)
- Abraham Toro has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 games at home (+10.15 Units / 31% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 37 games at home (+9.70 Units / 12% ROI)
Mariners vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
Mariners vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -115 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 -125 | 0.5 -110 |
| J.P. Crawford | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Mariners vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Bregman | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Adam Frazier | 0.5 +290 | 0.5 -450 |
| Cal Raleigh | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Carlos Santana | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eugenio Suarez | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Mariners vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Justin Verlander | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 -105 |
| Logan Gilbert | 5.5 +115 | 5.5 -165 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 81 games (+22.45 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 56 of their last 92 games (+20.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 55 of their last 78 games (+16.75 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 42 of their last 75 games (+9.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 23 of their last 38 games (+9.20 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 26 games (+18.35 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 27 games at home (+12.05 Units / 40% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 22 of their last 35 games (+10.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games (+9.35 Units / 28% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 49-45 against the Run Line (+5 Units / 4.53% ROI).
- 62-32 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.25 Units / 7.9% ROI
- 33-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -28.45 Units / -27.72% ROI
- 57-33 when betting on the total runs Under for +20.55 Units / 19.67% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 49-45 against the Run Line (-1.95 Units / -1.55% ROI).
- 51-43 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.15 Units / 7.26% ROI
- 44-48 when betting on the total runs Over for -8.1 Units / -7.89% ROI
- 48-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.7 Units / -0.67% ROI
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .159 (28-for-176) against Justin Verlander this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — 97th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has walked 19 of 422 batters (4%) this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 94th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a strike rate of 74% (368/499) in two strike counts this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .238 (421 PA’s) this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .293 — 97th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 38% (52/138) against Logan Gilbert in two-strike counts this season — 10th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 45% — 14th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OPS of just .366 (256 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — 5th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .472 — 94th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting .318 (27-for-85) against Logan Gilbert on inside fastballs this season — 7th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .262 — 12th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .180 (256 PA’s) with two-strikes this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .225 — 91st Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Astros are 37-2 (.949) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .791.
The Astros are 55-9 (.859) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Astros are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 32-18 (.640) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .479.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Mariners are 37-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mariners are 20-6 (.769) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .709.
The Mariners are 29-5 (.853) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
The Mariners are 8-4 (.667) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 589 strikeouts in 3,179 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Astros hitters have just 1,337 strikeouts in 6,621 PA’s (20%) against RHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 719 strikeouts in 3,839 PA’s (19%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .160 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Mariners hitters have drawn 106 walks in 942 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners hitters have an OBP of .395 (119 PA’s) against LHP this month (11 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
The Mariners are batting just .306 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .340.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 30% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents are hitting just .211 against Astros pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Astros pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
The Mariners have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mariners vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Taylor Trammell (Mariners): Hamstring, D10
- John Crawford (Mariners): Finger, Day-to-Day
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Kenneth Giles (Mariners): Shoulder, D15
- Mitchell Haniger (Mariners): Ankle, D60
- Julio Rodríguez (Mariners): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D10
- Lance McCullers Jr. (Astros): Forearm, D60
- Blake Taylor (Astros): Elbow, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D10
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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