- The are -125 favorites vs the Phillies
- Astros starting pitcher: Lance McCullers Jr., 2.45 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Ranger Suárez, 1.86 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Houston Astros (-125) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+105) on Tuesday, November 1, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Philadelphia for this World Series game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).
The Astros vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 114-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 91-84 ATS.
Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +135 | O 8 -115 | -125 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -160 | U 8 -105 | +105 |
Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s World Series Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Tuesday‘s World Series matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today, World Series
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 35 of his last 64 games (+10.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jose Altuve has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 17 away games (+10.20 Units / 32% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.75 Units / 59% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.75 Units / 58% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 38 of his last 61 games at home (+14.85 Units / 21% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 38 games (+13.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 10 of his last 13 games at home (+12.20 Units / 94% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 16 of his last 22 games (+11.35 Units / 50% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 21 of his last 39 games (+11.05 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +1000 | 0.5 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Phillies vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -140 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +105 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
Phillies vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
Phillies vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Lance McCullers Jr. | 4.5 -160 | 4.5 +110 |
| Ranger Suarez | 2.5 -140 | 2.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 100 of their last 158 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 96 of their last 169 games (+27.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 107 of their last 155 games (+26.50 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 84 of their last 152 games (+17.55 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 38 of their last 66 games (+7.95 Units / 10% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 76 of their last 125 games (+18.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 67 of their last 117 games (+12.13 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 36 games at home (+12.08 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games at home (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 59 games at home (+10.15 Units / 14% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 91-80 against the Run Line (+13.2 Units / 6.53% ROI).
- 114-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +22 Units / 7.36% ROI
- 63-97 when betting on the total runs Over for -42.45 Units / -22.65% ROI
- 97-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +27.2 Units / 14.37% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 91-84 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 0.8% ROI).
- 97-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 2.06% ROI
- 89-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 79-89 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.6 Units / -9.17% ROI
Lance McCullers Jr.: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Lance McCullers has thrown off-speed pitches 80% of the time (1,403/1,761) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total NonFB; League Avg: 46% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a line drive rate of just 15% (53/357) against Lance McCullers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 191 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Lance McCullers has thrown his curveball 49% of the time (869/1,761) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total CB; League Avg: 19% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 19% (102/536) against Lance McCullers since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Ranger Suárez: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 14% (24/171) against Ranger Suarez with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 54% of Ranger Suarez’s pitches (655/1,217) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 61% — third Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 63% (98/156) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 61% (149/245) against Ranger Suarez in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 161 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 99th Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 15-7 (.682) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Astros are 65-4 (.942) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Astros hitters have put 40% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters are slugging .536 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .445.
Phillies hitters have an OBP of .338 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
The Astros have allowed 3.27 runs per game (265/81) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.31.
Astros pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (1410.2 IP) on the road since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.29.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH since the start of last season (7,898 balls in play) — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Phillies vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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