- The are -160 favorites vs the Phillies
- Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, 7.20 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Noah Syndergaard, 1.68 ERA
- Watch the game on FOX
The Houston Astros (-160) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+135) on Thursday, November 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Philadelphia for this World Series game.
The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Astros vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Astros are 115-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 91-84 ATS.
Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Astros | -1.5 +105 | O 7.5 -115 | -160 |
| Phillies | +1.5 -130 | U 7.5 -105 | +135 |
Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s World Series Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s World Series matchup with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today, World Series
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
- Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.75 Units / 30% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 36 of his last 66 games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 55% ROI)
- Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.75 Units / 58% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+15.70 Units / 22% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 63 games at home (+14.65 Units / 20% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.45 Units / 54% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+12.60 Units / 84% ROI)
- Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 41 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)
Phillies vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +875 | 0.5 -5000 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -650 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +825 | 0.5 -5000 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
Phillies vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +145 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Phillies vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Brandon Marsh | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -550 |
| Bryce Harper | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +280 | 0.5 -450 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
Phillies vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Noah Syndergaard | 2.5 +105 | 2.5 -145 |
| Justin Verlander | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Astros Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 101 of their last 160 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 98 of their last 171 games (+29.20 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 108 of their last 157 games (+26.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 154 games (+18.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 117 games (+7.90 Units / 6% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 127 games (+18.15 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+12.08 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 119 games (+11.98 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.65 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)
Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 92-81 against the Run Line (+13.8 Units / 6.76% ROI).
- 115-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.75 Units / 7.22% ROI
- 63-99 when betting on the total runs Over for -44.55 Units / -23.5% ROI
- 99-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +29.2 Units / 15.24% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 91-84 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 0.8% ROI).
- 97-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 2.06% ROI
- 89-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 1.21% ROI
- 79-89 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.6 Units / -9.17% ROI
Justin Verlander: Astros Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has a strike rate of 71% (609/852) in two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.
Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 25 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has allowed 30 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 49 of Noah Syndergaard’s 239 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.
Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Astros are 55-26 (.679) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.
The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.
The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.
The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros
The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.
Astros Hitting Stats & Trends
Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.
Astros Pitching Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3
Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.
Phillies vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
- Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
- Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60
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