Astros vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Nov 3

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 03, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The are -160 favorites vs the Phillies
  • Astros starting pitcher: Justin Verlander, 7.20 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Noah Syndergaard, 1.68 ERA
  • Watch the game on FOX

The Houston Astros (-160) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+135) on Thursday, November 3, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 8:03pm EDT in Philadelphia for this World Series game.

The Astros are betting favorites in this MLB postseason matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Astros vs Phillies Over/Under is 7.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Astros are 115-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 91-84 ATS.

Astros vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Astros-1.5 +105O 7.5 -115-160
Phillies +1.5 -130U 7.5 -105+135

Astros vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s World Series Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Astros will win Thursday‘s World Series matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Astros and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Bet now on Phillies vs Astros and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Astros Player Prop Bets Today, World Series

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Astros players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Framber Valdez has hit the Strikeouts Over in 21 of his last 29 games (+13.50 Units / 41% ROI)
  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 18 games (+11.75 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Runs Over in 36 of his last 66 games (+10.90 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Alex Bregman has hit the Total Bases Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+10.20 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Framber Valdez has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 12 of his last 15 away games (+9.75 Units / 58% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today, World Series

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Singles Under in 31 of his last 40 games (+15.70 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 39 of his last 63 games at home (+14.65 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 24 games (+13.45 Units / 54% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+12.60 Units / 84% ROI)
  • Alec Bohm has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 41 games (+11.30 Units / 21% ROI)

Phillies vs Astros Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +875 0.5 -5000
Bryce Harper 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Bryson Stott 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +550 0.5 -1400

Phillies vs Astros Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -210 0.5 +145
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +105 0.5 -150
Bryce Harper 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Bryson Stott 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -200 0.5 +140

Phillies vs Astros RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Brandon Marsh 0.5 +320 0.5 -550
Bryce Harper 0.5 +185 0.5 -275
Bryson Stott 0.5 +280 0.5 -450
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +225 0.5 -350

Phillies vs Astros Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Noah Syndergaard 2.5 +105 2.5 -145
Justin Verlander 5.5 -140 5.5 +100
  • The Houston Astros have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 101 of their last 160 games (+30.75 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 98 of their last 171 games (+29.20 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 108 of their last 157 games (+26.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have covered the Run Line in 85 of their last 154 games (+18.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 61 of their last 117 games (+7.90 Units / 6% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 127 games (+18.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 38 games at home (+12.08 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 119 games (+11.98 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+10.65 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 35 of their last 61 games at home (+9.35 Units / 13% ROI)

Astros Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Astros have gone 92-81 against the Run Line (+13.8 Units / 6.76% ROI).

  • 115-58 when betting on the Moneyline for +21.75 Units / 7.22% ROI
  • 63-99 when betting on the total runs Over for -44.55 Units / -23.5% ROI
  • 99-63 when betting on the total runs Under for +29.2 Units / 15.24% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Phillies have gone 91-84 against the Run Line (+1.75 Units / 0.8% ROI).

  • 97-78 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.15 Units / 2.06% ROI
  • 89-79 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 1.21% ROI
  • 79-89 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.6 Units / -9.17% ROI

Opponents are hitting just .186 (116-for-625) against Justin Verlander this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has a strike rate of 71% (609/852) in two strike counts this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 66% — 95th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OBP of just .227 (665 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .288 — 100th Percentile.

Justin Verlander has allowed an OPS of just .497 (666 PA’s) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .664 — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Noah Syndergaard has had second base stolen on him 25 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has allowed 30 stolen bases this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Noah Syndergaard has had third base stolen on him 5 times this season — most in MLB — 100th Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 49 of Noah Syndergaard’s 239 breaking balls down out of the zone (chase rate of 20%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 80 total IP; League Avg: 35% — first Percentile.

Astros Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Astros are 55-26 (.679) at home this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .532.

The Astros are 47-5 (.904) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .727.

The Astros are 51-30 (.630) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .468.

The Astros are 49-7 (.875) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Astros

The Phillies are just 5-12 (.294) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 11-58 (.159) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 73-25 (.745) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Phillies are 14-57 (.197) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .119.

Astros hitters have just 701 strikeouts in 3,931 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Astros hitters have just 831 strikeouts in 4,591 PA’s (18%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Astros are batting .189 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Astros hitters have just 321 strikeouts in 1,850 PA’s (17%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies hitters have an OPS of .771 (1,760 PA’s) against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Phillies are batting .266 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Phillies hitters are slugging .496 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

The Phillies are batting .260 at home this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .246.

The average home run distance against the Astros pitchers since the start of last season is 392.8 feet — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 399.3

Astros pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 27% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Astros pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 186 of 2,865 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers this season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .248 against Phillies pitchers with the shift since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .223.

Phillies vs. Astros Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Jason Castro (Astros): Knee, D60
  • Michael Brantley (Astros): Shoulder, D60
  • Joshua James (Astros): Lat, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.