Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 04, 2022, 8:40 AM
  • The Blue Jays (72-59) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (49-83)
  • Blue Jays starting pitcher: Thomas Stripling (6-4), 2.94 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (3-11), 4.39 ERA
  • Watch the game on Peacock

The Toronto Blue Jays (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Blue Jays vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Blue Jays are 70-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 63-65 ATS.

Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Blue Jays-1.5 -120O 8 -110-200
Pirates +1.5 +100U 8 -110+165

Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the NA will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Blue Jays and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 55 away games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+12.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 50 of his last 87 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games at home (+13.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 43 games at home (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games at home (+10.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 89 games (+17.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games at home (+5.45 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 53% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)

Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 54-74 against the Run Line (-25.3 Units / -16.42% ROI).

  • 70-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.1 Units / -11.02% ROI
  • 64-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.32% ROI
  • 61-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -7.24% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 63-65 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -6.33% ROI).

  • 48-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -7.29% ROI
  • 55-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -11.58% ROI
  • 65-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 3.15% ROI

The average home run distance against Ross Stripling this season is 374.4 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 398.2

Ross Stripling has walked 16 of 404 batters (4%) this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.

Ross Stripling has walked 6 of 170 left-handed batters (4%) this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.

Ross Stripling has allowed a slugging percentage of just .362 (68 Total Bases / 188 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .543 — 100th Percentile.

Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (309/931) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (148/479) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.

JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 59% (369/620) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.

Hitters have chased just 40 of JT Brubaker’s 275 elevated fastballs out of the zone (14%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.

Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Blue Jays are 54-2 (.964) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Blue Jays are 34-30 (.531) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Blue Jays are 60-3 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Blue Jays are just 3-49 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays

The Pirates are just 87-24 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 33-9 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Pirates are just 53-125 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.

The Pirates are just 16-72 (.182) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.

Blue Jays hitters are slugging .662 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.

The Blue Jays are batting .263 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Blue Jays hitters have just 2,224 strikeouts in 11,033 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Blue Jays hitters have just 174 strikeouts in 947 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .466 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .555.

The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Pirates are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 344 of 4,899 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Blue Jays pitchers have walked 817 of 10,815 batters (8%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (559.0 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.

Pirates pitchers have walked 227 of 2,552 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 468 of 5,066 batters (9%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Pirates vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D15
  • Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Foot, Day-to-Day
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Hand, Day-to-Day
  • Julian Merryweather (Blue Jays): Side, D60
  • Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
  • Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
  • Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.