- The Blue Jays (72-59) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (49-83)
- Blue Jays starting pitcher: Thomas Stripling (6-4), 2.94 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker (3-11), 4.39 ERA
- Watch the game on Peacock
The Toronto Blue Jays (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Sunday, September 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 12:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Blue Jays are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Blue Jays vs Pirates Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Blue Jays are 70-58 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 63-65 ATS.
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Blue Jays | -1.5 -120 | O 8 -110 | -200 |
| Pirates | +1.5 +100 | U 8 -110 | +165 |
Blue Jays vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the NA will win Sunday‘s matchup with 53.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Blue Jays and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Blue Jays Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Blue Jays players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Singles Over in 37 of his last 55 away games (+14.70 Units / 21% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 55 away games (+12.70 Units / 15% ROI)
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr has hit the Total Bases Over in 50 of his last 87 games (+12.15 Units / 13% ROI)
- Bo Bichette has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.05 Units / 25% ROI)
- Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 22 away games (+10.00 Units / 23% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 45 games at home (+13.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 26 of his last 43 games at home (+13.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games at home (+12.55 Units / 42% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+10.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Under in 30 of his last 43 games at home (+10.30 Units / 15% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Blue Jays Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 89 games (+17.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.40 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 away games (+0.05 Units / 0% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 33 games at home (+5.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+3.35 Units / 53% ROI)
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 6 games (+0.05 Units / 1% ROI)
Blue Jays Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 54-74 against the Run Line (-25.3 Units / -16.42% ROI).
- 70-58 when betting on the Moneyline for -24.1 Units / -11.02% ROI
- 64-61 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.25 Units / -2.32% ROI
- 61-64 when betting on the total runs Under for -10.3 Units / -7.24% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Blue Jays have gone 63-65 against the Run Line (-10.1 Units / -6.33% ROI).
- 48-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -9.65 Units / -7.29% ROI
- 55-65 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.3 Units / -11.58% ROI
- 65-55 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.45 Units / 3.15% ROI
Thomas Stripling: Blue Jays Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Ross Stripling this season is 374.4 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 398.2
Ross Stripling has walked 16 of 404 batters (4%) this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 96th Percentile.
Ross Stripling has walked 6 of 170 left-handed batters (4%) this season — tied for 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 95th Percentile.
Ross Stripling has allowed a slugging percentage of just .362 (68 Total Bases / 188 ABs) in non-two strike counts this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: .543 — 100th Percentile.
Jonathan Brubaker: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (309/931) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 146 total IP; League Avg: 49% — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 31% (148/479) against JT Brubaker on elevated fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
JT Brubaker has a strike rate of just 59% (369/620) in two strike counts this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 66% — second Percentile.
Hitters have chased just 40 of JT Brubaker’s 275 elevated fastballs out of the zone (14%) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 65 total IP; League Avg: 28% — first Percentile.
Blue Jays Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Blue Jays are 54-2 (.964) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Blue Jays are 34-30 (.531) on the road this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.
The Blue Jays are 60-3 (.952) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Blue Jays are just 3-49 (.058) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Blue Jays
The Pirates are just 87-24 (.784) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 33-9 (.786) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Pirates are just 53-125 (.298) on the road since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Pirates are just 16-72 (.182) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .297.
Blue Jays Hitting Stats & Trends
Blue Jays hitters are slugging .662 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .570.
The Blue Jays are batting .263 with two outs since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Blue Jays hitters have just 2,224 strikeouts in 11,033 PA’s (20%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Blue Jays hitters have just 174 strikeouts in 947 PA’s (18%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .143 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .466 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .555.
The Pirates have answered-back in just 23% of innings after an opponent scores since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.
The Pirates are batting just .114 on pitches out of the zone this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .158.
Blue Jays Pitching Stats & Trends
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 344 of 4,899 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Blue Jays pitchers have walked 817 of 10,815 batters (8%) since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Blue Jays pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 38% of their games since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Blue Jays pitchers have an ERA of 3.51 (559.0 IP) on the road this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.14.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 227 of 2,552 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in 60% of their games on the road this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 468 of 5,066 batters (9%) this season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Pirates pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in 66% of their games since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Pirates vs. Blue Jays Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Colin Holderman (Pirates): Shoulder, D15
- Benjamin Gamel (Pirates): Foot, Day-to-Day
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
- Santiago Espinal (Blue Jays): Hand, Day-to-Day
- Julian Merryweather (Blue Jays): Side, D60
- Hyun Jin Ryu (Blue Jays): Forearm, D60
- Nathan Pearson (Blue Jays): Mono, D60
- Tayler Saucedo (Blue Jays): Hip, D60
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