Braves vs Mets Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Mar 2

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Mar 02, 2023, 1:35 PM
  • The Mets are -200 favorites vs the Braves
  • Braves starting pitcher: Kolby Allard, 4.50 ERA
  • Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
  • Watch the game on SNY

The Atlanta Braves (+165) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (-200) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Port St Lucie.

The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this Spring Training, the Braves are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 1-2 ATS.

Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves+1.5 -110O 10 -120+165
Mets -1.5 -110U 10 +100-200

Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.


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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:

  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:

  • Patrick Mazeika has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.50 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 70% ROI)
  • Travis Jankowski has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 57 away games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games at home (+23.55 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 78 games at home (+23.27 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
  • The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -54.9% ROI).

  • 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
  • 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -4.3% ROI
  • 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI

Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -37.08% ROI).

  • 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -39.71% ROI
  • 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 91.04% ROI
  • 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI

Kolby Allard has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 15th, 2022 — Gerrit Cole has the longest active streak at 11.

Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (84 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when he was behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco allowed an OPS of 1.539 (106 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 0 Percentile.

Opponents batted .500 against Carlos Carrasco (44-for-88) when he was behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 0 Percentile.

Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .690 (58 Total Bases / 84 ABs) on inside fastballs last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .420 — first Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.

The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.

The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.

Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.

Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.

The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.

Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.

Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
  • Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.