- The Mets are -200 favorites vs the Braves
- Braves starting pitcher: Kolby Allard, 4.50 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Carlos Carrasco
- Watch the game on SNY
The Atlanta Braves (+165) visit Clover Park to take on the New York Mets (-200) on Thursday, March 2, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EST in Port St Lucie.
The Mets are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-110).
The Braves vs Mets Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
So far this Spring Training, the Braves are 1-1 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 1-2 ATS.
Braves vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | +1.5 -110 | O 10 -120 | +165 |
| Mets | -1.5 -110 | U 10 +100 | -200 |
Braves vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Mets will win Thursday‘s matchup with 57.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 43% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Patrick Mazeika has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.50 Units / 110% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Singles Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- Travis Jankowski has hit the Runs Under in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Dominic Smith has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 35% ROI)
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 79 of their last 116 games (+22.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 57 away games (+12.55 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 35 of their last 57 away games (+12.15 Units / 19% ROI)
Mets Best Bets Today:
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 52 of their last 84 games at home (+23.55 Units / 16% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 53 of their last 78 games at home (+23.27 Units / 23% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 72 of their last 127 games (+15.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 29 games (+13.95 Units / 44% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 88 of their last 165 games (+9.75 Units / 5% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2.8 Units / -54.9% ROI).
- 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.2 Units / -4.3% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Mets have gone 1-2 against the Run Line (-1.65 Units / -37.08% ROI).
- 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.35 Units / -39.71% ROI
- 3-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.05 Units / 91.04% ROI
- 0-3 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Kolby Allard has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to June 15th, 2022 — Gerrit Cole has the longest active streak at 11.
Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .955 (84 Total Bases / 88 ABs) when he was behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .582 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed an OPS of 1.539 (106 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 1.038 — 0 Percentile.
Opponents batted .500 against Carlos Carrasco (44-for-88) when he was behind in the count last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .336 — 0 Percentile.
Carlos Carrasco allowed a slugging percentage of .690 (58 Total Bases / 84 ABs) on inside fastballs last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .420 — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 36-5 (.878) when scoring in the first inning last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 59-12 (.831) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Mets are 89-3 (.967) when leading entering the 8th inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .915.
The Mets are just 10-28 (.263) when their opponents score in the first inning last season — 8th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Mets are 87-24 (.784) when allowing 4 or fewer runs last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.
The Mets are 36-9 (.800) when hitting 2 or more home runs last season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of the 2021 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters slugged .307 with two-strikes last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters slugged .656 on the first pitch of at-bats last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 69% of their home games last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters struck out just 382 times in 1,923 PA’s (20%) against LHP last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters had an OBP of .336 (4,294 PA’s) against RHP last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .310.
The Mets batted .259 last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .243.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
The Braves allowed 1.02 runs per game (165/162) in late innings last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 1.28.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers had a strikeout rate of 28% with runners in scoring position last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 31% of their games at home last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Mets pitchers walked 84 of 1,449 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mets vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- New York Mets – No Injuries Reported
- Atlanta Braves – No Injuries Reported
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