- The Braves are -250 favorites vs the Nationals
- Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider
- Nationals starting pitcher: Josiah Gray
- Watch the game on MASN
The Atlanta Braves (-250) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+200) on Saturday, April 1, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Washington.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (+105).
The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 0-0 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 0-0 ATS.
Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -2.5 +105 | O 9 -120 | -250 |
| Nationals | +2.5 -125 | U 9 +100 | +200 |
Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s MLB matchup with 60.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in his last 4 games (+4.05 Units / 80% ROI)
- Adam Duvall has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.60 Units / 38% ROI)
- William Contreras has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.10 Units / 86% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.05 Units / 45% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Keibert Ruiz has hit the RBIs Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Yadiel Hernandez has hit the RBIs Over in his last 2 games at home (+4.10 Units / 205% ROI)
- Alex Call has hit the Runs Over in 2 of his last 3 games at home (+2.80 Units / 93% ROI)
- Israel Pineda has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.10 Units / 100% ROI)
- Cesar Hernandez has hit the Runs Over in his last game (+2.05 Units / 205% ROI)
Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +340 | 0.5 -600 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +135 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +195 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +130 |
Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -190 |
| Joey Meneses | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -375 |
| Dominic Smith | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -135 |
| Jeimer Candelario | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Josiah Gray | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +110 |
| Spencer Strider | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +100 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 86 of their last 140 games (+23.04 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 77 of their last 133 games (+21.60 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 103 of their last 167 games (+10.30 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 84 away games (+9.25 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in 37 of their last 61 games (+9.10 Units / 12% ROI)
Nationals Best Bets Today:
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in their last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 67% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 19 of their last 43 games (+0.25 Units / 1% ROI)
- The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+0.10 Units / 2% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Nationals have gone 0-0 against the Run Line (+0 Units / 0% ROI).
- 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Over for +0 Units / 0% ROI
- 0-0 when betting on the total runs Under for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Spencer Strider had a strikeout rate of 38% (202/528) in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 99th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a miss rate of 41% (227/553) against Spencer Strider in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Spencer Strider struck out 44% (111/251) of right-handed batters he faced in 2022 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
58% of Spencer Strider’s strikeouts came on 97+ MPH fastballs in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .678 (240 Total Bases / 354 ABs) on fastballs since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .437 — 0 Percentile.
Josiah Gray allowed a slugging percentage of .598 (140 Total Bases / 234 ABs) vs left-handed batters in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: .385 — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray walked 44 of 280 left-handed batters (16%) in 2022 — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 8% — first Percentile.
Josiah Gray has allowed a slugging percentage of .645 (355 Total Bases / 550 ABs) on pitches in the strike zone since the 2021 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: .478 — 0 Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals
The Braves were 21-15 (.583) when allowing 2 or more home runs in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .293.
The Braves were 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves were 49-12 (.803) when totaling 10 or more hits in 2022 — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .728.
The Braves are 97-64 (.602) at home since the 2021 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .536.
Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Nationals are just 78-45 (.634) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Nationals are just 105-12 (.897) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .954.
The Nationals were just 17-94 (.153) when scoring 4 or fewer runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Nationals are just 87-166 (.344) when underdogs since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .406.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters slugged .486 on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .383.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .837 (1,216 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .713.
Braves hitters are slugging .517 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the 2021 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .449.
Braves hitters had an OPS of .782 (1,638 PA’s) against LHP in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Nationals Hitting Stats & Trends
Nationals hitters slugged just .488 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
The Nationals have a winning percentage of just 37% since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Nationals hitters have just 785 strikeouts in 3,794 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the 2021 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Nationals hitters had 63 extra-base hits out of 242 total hits (just 26%) on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 26% in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Opponents had a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers in 2022 — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes in 2022 — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers had a strikeout rate of 30% in close and late situations in 2022 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Nationals Pitching Stats & Trends
The Nationals have won just 22% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
The Nationals pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in 73% of their games at home in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Opponents had a miss rate of just 23% against Nationals pitchers in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Nationals pitchers had a strikeout rate of just 33% with two-strikes over the last 30 days of the regular season (27 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Steven Cavalli (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- VÃctor Arano (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
- Israel Pineda (Nationals): Finger, D10
- Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
- Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs/Shoulder, D60
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kyle Wright (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Max Fried (Braves): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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