Braves vs Nationals Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 15

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 15, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (54-37) are -165 favorites vs the Nationals (30-61)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Ian Anderson (7-5), 4.98 ERA
  • Nationals starting pitcher: Patrick Corbin (4-11), 5.70 ERA
  • Watch the game on MASN

The Atlanta Braves (-165) visit Nationals Park to take on the Washington Nationals (+135) on Friday, July 15, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Washington.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-105).

The Braves vs Nationals Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 54-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Nationals are 39-52 ATS.

Braves vs. Nationals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -105O 9.5 -115-165
Nationals +1.5 -115U 9.5 -105+135

Braves vs Nationals Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Friday‘s matchup with 58.5% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Nationals and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Hits Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.90 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Ozzie Albies has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 57 games (+7.90 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Max Fried has hit the Earned Runs Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.35 Units / 49% ROI)
  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 away games (+7.20 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Travis Demeritte has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Nationals Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Nationals players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Riley Adams has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 13 games at home (+9.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Joan Adon has hit the Earned Runs Over in 9 of his last 11 games (+7.15 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Lucius Fox has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.15 Units / 92% ROI)
  • Lucius Fox has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.15 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Lucius Fox has hit the Singles Under in his last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 60% ROI)

Nationals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
Josh Bell 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Juan Soto 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Luis Garcia 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

Nationals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 -250 0.5 +165
Josh Bell 0.5 -275 0.5 +180
Juan Soto 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Luis Garcia 0.5 -250 0.5 +170

Nationals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Cesar Hernandez 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Josh Bell 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Juan Soto 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Keibert Ruiz 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Luis Garcia 0.5 +150 0.5 -200

Nationals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Patrick Corbin 4.5 -145 4.5 +105
Ian Anderson 3.5 -135 3.5 -105
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 65 games (+21.77 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 41 games (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 25 games (+10.25 Units / 37% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 38 of their last 58 games (+9.05 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 25 of their last 39 away games (+8.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 46 of their last 78 games (+14.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 24 games (+8.60 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Washington Nationals have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 5 games (+3.20 Units / 57% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 46-45 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -2.47% ROI).

  • 54-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.8 Units / 1.91% ROI
  • 43-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.2 Units / -6.18% ROI
  • 45-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.35 Units / -2.35% ROI

Nationals Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 39-52 against the Run Line (-20.9 Units / -18.54% ROI).

  • 30-61 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.95 Units / -23.03% ROI
  • 44-43 when betting on the total runs Over for -3.4 Units / -3.36% ROI
  • 43-44 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.75 Units / -4.78% ROI

Ian Anderson has allowed an OBP of .476 (82 PA’s) when going through the lineup the third time in a game this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: .316 — first Percentile.

Ian Anderson has a strikeout rate of just 10% (8 SO in 84 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 21% — third Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (77/231) against Ian Anderson on low breaking pitches this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 46% — second Percentile.

Ian Anderson has an average spin rate of 1902.9 RPM on fastballs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 43 total IP; League Avg: 2216.7 — second Percentile.

Patrick Corbin: Nationals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents are hitting .310 (125-for-403) against Patrick Corbin this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .235 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OBP of .366 (440 PA’s) this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .294 — first Percentile.

Patrick Corbin has allowed an OPS of .858 (340 PA’s) against right-handed batters this season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .680 — fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .349 (65-for-186) against Patrick Corbin on the road this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .239 — first Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Nationals

The Braves are 35-5 (.875) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .790.

The Braves are 23-17 (.575) on the road this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .479.

The Braves are 31-20 (.608) at home this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Braves are 22-3 (.880) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .661.

Nationals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Nationals are just 9-56 (.138) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .299.

The Nationals are just 30-54 (.357) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.

The Nationals are just 101-16 (.863) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.

The Nationals are just 14-34 (.292) at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

Braves hitters are slugging .718 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .565.

Braves hitters have 224 extra-base hits out of 523 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters are slugging .444 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .395.

Braves hitters are slugging .306 with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .269.

Nationals have grounded 91 double plays this season — most in MLB.

Nationals have grounded 249 double plays since the start of last season — most in MLB.

Nationals hitters have put 39% of their swings in play with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Nationals hitters have an OBP of .332 (4,823 PA’s) on the road since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .310.

Braves pitchers have walked 75 of 821 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 29% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have walked 10 of 66 batters (15%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the past seven days (7 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Nationals pitchers have allowed a run 36% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

Nationals pitchers have an ERA of 5.74 (364.0 IP) on the road this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.13.

The Nationals have won just 20% of home games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .284 against Nationals pitchers with runners on base since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Nationals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Víctor Arano (Nationals): Knee, D15
  • Joseph Ross (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Stephen Strasburg (Nationals): Ribs, D60
  • Seth Romero (Nationals): Calf, D60
  • William Harris (Nationals): Pectoral, D60
  • Joshua Rogers (Nationals): Shoulder, D15
  • Jackson Tetreault (Nationals): Shoulder, D60
  • Tanner Rainey (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Evan Lee (Nationals): Flexor, D15
  • Carter Kieboom (Nationals): Forearm, D60
  • Reed Garrett (Nationals): Biceps, D15
  • Sean Doolittle (Nationals): Elbow, D60
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.