- The Phillies (83-68) are +105 underdogs vs the Braves (94-58)
- Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (9-6), 4.08 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (10-7), 4.71 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Atlanta Braves (-130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+105) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at –1.5.
The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 94-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 76-75 ATS.
Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 | O 8.5 -110 | -130 |
| Phillies | +1.5 | U 8.5 -110 | +105 |
Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 75 of his last 102 games (+27.10 Units / 14% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 28 games (+19.95 Units / 37% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+17.60 Units / 77% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 61 games (+17.45 Units / 19% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 80 of his last 140 games (+17.40 Units / 11% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 68 games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 55 games at home (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
- Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+11.40 Units / 38% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.60 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 23% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+8.40 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.85 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.95 Units / 38% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.15 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.20 Units / 29% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 78-73 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -1.99% ROI).
- 94-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.1 Units / 5.1% ROI
- 75-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.12% ROI
- 68-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -8.75% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -1.25% ROI).
- 83-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 1.49% ROI
- 76-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.15% ROI
- 69-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -8.3% ROI
Charles Morton: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 45% (619/1,378) against Charlie Morton this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — sixth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (399/684) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has walked 59 of 682 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.
Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (1,201/2,765) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (30/184) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 59% (392/667) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.
Kyle Gibson has allowed a slugging percentage of .453 (106 Total Bases / 234 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .347 — second Percentile.
Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (218/662) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Braves are 65-9 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.
The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Phillies are 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Phillies are 14-52 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.
The Phillies are 67-4 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.
Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Braves hitters are slugging .431 on the road since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .396.
Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Phillies are batting .179 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.
24% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
The Phillies are batting .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .153.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 1.60 (90.0 IP) at home this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.
Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Phillies pitchers have walked 180 of 2,755 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season (3,664 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.
Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
- Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
- Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
- Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Back, Day-to-Day
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
- Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15
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