Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Sep 25

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 25, 2022, 11:45 AM
  • The Phillies (83-68) are +105 underdogs vs the Braves (94-58)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Charles Morton (9-6), 4.08 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Kyle Gibson (10-7), 4.71 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Atlanta Braves (-130) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (+105) on Sunday, September 25, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at 1.5.

The Braves vs Phillies Over/Under is 8.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 94-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 76-75 ATS.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5O 8.5 -110-130
Phillies +1.5U 8.5 -110+105

Braves vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 58.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 75 of his last 102 games (+27.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 28 games (+19.95 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 23 games (+17.60 Units / 77% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 41 of his last 61 games (+17.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 80 of his last 140 games (+17.40 Units / 11% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the RBIs Under in 39 of his last 52 games at home (+15.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 39 games (+12.40 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 40 of his last 68 games (+12.05 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Total Bases Over in 33 of his last 55 games at home (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 17 games at home (+11.40 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 36 games (+8.05 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 games (+6.35 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 15 away games (+4.60 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games (+4.15 Units / 58% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.65 Units / 23% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+8.40 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.85 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.95 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 14 of their last 23 games (+4.15 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.20 Units / 29% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 78-73 against the Run Line (-3.8 Units / -1.99% ROI).

  • 94-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +13.1 Units / 5.1% ROI
  • 75-68 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.2 Units / 0.12% ROI
  • 68-75 when betting on the total runs Under for -14.5 Units / -8.75% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 76-75 against the Run Line (-2.3 Units / -1.25% ROI).

  • 83-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.25 Units / 1.49% ROI
  • 76-69 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.25 Units / 0.15% ROI
  • 69-76 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.75 Units / -8.3% ROI

Right-handed hitters have a swing rate of just 45% (619/1,378) against Charlie Morton this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 50% — sixth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has a first-pitch strike rate of just 58% (399/684) this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — sixth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has walked 59 of 682 batters (9%) this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 6% — eighth Percentile.

Charlie Morton has thrown his curveball 43% of the time (1,201/2,765) vs left-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Kyle Gibson: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a miss rate of just 16% (30/184) against Kyle Gibson on the first pitch of at-bats this season — lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — second Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has a first-pitch strike rate of just 59% (392/667) this season — 4th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 63% — eighth Percentile.

Kyle Gibson has allowed a slugging percentage of .453 (106 Total Bases / 234 ABs) on non-fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .347 — second Percentile.

Opponents have a swing rate of just 33% (218/662) against Kyle Gibson on elevated fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 49% — 0 Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 34-5 (.872) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Braves are 65-9 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .802.

The Braves are 9-4 (.692) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Phillies are 11-52 (.175) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Phillies are 14-52 (.212) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .118.

The Phillies are 67-4 (.944) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Phillies are 47-33 (.588) at home this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .526.

Braves hitters are slugging .659 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .559.

Braves hitters are slugging .624 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Braves hitters are slugging .431 on the road since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .396.

Braves hitters are slugging .441 against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .394.

The Phillies are batting .265 against LHP this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Phillies are batting .179 on pitches out of the zone this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .157.

24% of Phillies hitters strikeouts have come on 95+ MPH fastballs this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 21%.

The Phillies are batting .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .153.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Braves pitchers have an ERA of 1.60 (90.0 IP) at home this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 3.84.

Opponents have a miss rate of 29% against Braves pitchers this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Phillies pitchers have walked 180 of 2,755 batters (7%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

The Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 87.7 MPH this season (3,664 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.6

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .258 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: .220.

Phillies vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): Biceps, D60
  • Mark Appel (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Castellanos (Phillies): Oblique, D10
  • Kent Emanuel (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Edmundo Sosa (Phillies): Hamstring, D10
  • Símon Muzziotti (Phillies): Knee, D60
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Corey Knebel (Phillies): Lat, D60
  • Ronald Acuña Jr. (Braves): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Finger, D10
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D60
  • Spencer Strider (Braves): Oblique, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D15

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.