- The Braves (75-48) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (47-74)
- Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-5), 4.15 ERA
- Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (3-3), 4.01 ERA
- Watch the game on SportsNet PT
The Atlanta Braves (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Monday, August 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.
The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).
The Braves vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Braves are 73-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 60-57 ATS.
Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 -120 | O 9 -115 | -200 |
| Pirates | +1.5 +100 | U 9 -105 | +165 |
Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 60.4% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 64 of his last 111 games (+17.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 73 games (+13.40 Units / 10% ROI)
- Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 35 away games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 49 of his last 80 games (+12.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)
Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
- Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 38 games at home (+10.50 Units / 18% ROI)
- Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+8.95 Units / 14% ROI)
Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +525 | 0.5 -1200 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 -165 | 0.5 +115 |
| Rodolfo Castro | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
Pirates vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Gamel | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| Bligh Madris | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -350 |
| Bryan Reynolds | 0.5 +135 | 0.5 -190 |
| Kevin Newman | 0.5 +225 | 0.5 -350 |
| Oneil Cruz | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Roansy Contreras | 4.5 -150 | 4.5 +105 |
| Jake Odorizzi | 3.5 -150 | 3.5 +105 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 97 games (+19.22 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 away games (+7.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+7.55 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 56 away games (+6.45 Units / 8% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Pirates: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+6.85 Units / 23% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 63-57 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.23% ROI).
- 73-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.79% ROI
- 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.07% ROI
- 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.6% ROI
Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.34% ROI).
- 46-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -3.54% ROI
- 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -7.99% ROI
- 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.23% ROI
Jacob Odorizzi: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (680/1,508) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.
Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (774/1,623) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (32/144) against Jake Odorizzi in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (8/83) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.
Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
No Matchup notes for this Game
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates
The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 30-4 (.882) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Braves are 66-14 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.
The Braves are 35-7 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.
The Pirates are just 15-64 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Pirates are just 32-8 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
The Pirates are just 2-60 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .672 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .555.
Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Braves hitters have 242 extra-base hits out of 596 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,220 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.
Pirates Hitting Stats & Trends
The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Pirates hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Pirates are batting just .209 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.
Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (3,236 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Braves pitchers have walked 4 of 180 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Braves pitchers have walked 4 of 121 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Pirates Pitching Stats & Trends
Pirates pitchers have walked 282 of 2,972 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 1,027 of 10,780 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have walked 223 of 2,456 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (1121.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.
Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
- Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- Mitch Keller (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
- Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
- Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
- Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
- Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
- Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
- David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60
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