Braves vs Pirates Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 22

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 22, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Braves (75-48) are -200 favorites vs the Pirates (47-74)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Jacob Odorizzi (4-5), 4.15 ERA
  • Pirates starting pitcher: Roansy Contreras (3-3), 4.01 ERA
  • Watch the game on SportsNet PT

The Atlanta Braves (-200) visit PNC Park to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates (+165) on Monday, August 22, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:05pm EDT in Pittsburgh.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-120).

The Braves vs Pirates Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 73-47 against the spread (ATS), while the Pirates are 60-57 ATS.

Braves vs. Pirates Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -120O 9 -115-200
Pirates +1.5 +100U 9 -105+165

Braves vs Pirates Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Monday‘s matchup with 60.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Pirates and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Pirates vs Braves and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 64 of his last 111 games (+17.30 Units / 14% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 73 games (+13.40 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 35 away games (+13.35 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 49 of his last 80 games (+12.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Runs Over in 23 of his last 35 games (+11.90 Units / 30% ROI)

Best Pirates Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Pirates players for Monday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 38 games at home (+15.00 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Ke’Bryan Hayes has hit the Total Bases Under in 32 of his last 44 games at home (+14.15 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Hits Under in 23 of his last 38 games at home (+10.50 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Rodolfo Castro has hit the Runs Under in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Bryan Reynolds has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 40 games at home (+8.95 Units / 14% ROI)

Pirates vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +525 0.5 -1200
Bligh Madris 0.5 +650 0.5 -2000
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Kevin Newman 0.5 +800 0.5 -3000
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +450 0.5 -900

Pirates vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
Bligh Madris 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 -250 0.5 +175
Oneil Cruz 0.5 -165 0.5 +115
Rodolfo Castro 0.5 -190 0.5 +130

Pirates vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Ben Gamel 0.5 +145 0.5 -200
Bligh Madris 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
Bryan Reynolds 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Kevin Newman 0.5 +225 0.5 -350
Oneil Cruz 0.5 +195 0.5 -300

Pirates vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Roansy Contreras 4.5 -150 4.5 +105
Jake Odorizzi 3.5 -150 3.5 +105
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 61 of their last 97 games (+19.22 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+10.00 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 35 away games (+7.85 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 19 of their last 31 away games (+7.55 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 56 away games (+6.45 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 17 of their last 28 games at home (+6.85 Units / 23% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 63-57 against the Run Line (-0.35 Units / -0.23% ROI).

  • 73-47 when betting on the Moneyline for +7.35 Units / 3.79% ROI
  • 60-52 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.75 Units / 2.07% ROI
  • 52-60 when betting on the total runs Under for -13.95 Units / -10.6% ROI

Pirates Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 60-57 against the Run Line (-4.95 Units / -3.34% ROI).

  • 46-71 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.3 Units / -3.54% ROI
  • 52-57 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.25 Units / -7.99% ROI
  • 57-52 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.3 Units / -0.23% ROI

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 45% of the time (680/1,508) on pitches in the strike zone since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 100th Percentile.

Jake Odorizzi has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (774/1,623) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 28% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 22% (32/144) against Jake Odorizzi in non-two strike counts this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 59 total IP; League Avg: 42% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of just 10% (8/83) against Jake Odorizzi on inside fastballs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 140 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Roansy Contreras: Pirates Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

No Matchup notes for this Game

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Pirates

The Braves are 11-3 (.786) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 30-4 (.882) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.

The Braves are 66-14 (.825) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .705.

The Braves are 35-7 (.833) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

Pirates Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Pirates are just 86-23 (.789) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .875.

The Pirates are just 15-64 (.190) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Pirates are just 32-8 (.800) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

The Pirates are just 2-60 (.032) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .086.

Braves hitters are slugging .672 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .555.

Braves hitters are slugging .450 against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Braves hitters have 242 extra-base hits out of 596 total hits (41%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have an OPS of .788 (1,220 PA’s) against LHP this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .714.

The Pirates are batting just .145 with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.

Pirates hitters are slugging just .171 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Pirates are batting just .209 with two outs since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .233.

Pirates hitters have an OPS of just .659 (3,236 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have walked 4 of 180 batters (2%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this month (20 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have walked 4 of 121 batters (3%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (13 games) — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 282 of 2,972 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of 2020 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 1,027 of 10,780 batters (10%) since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have walked 223 of 2,456 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Pirates pitchers have an ERA of 5.39 (1121.0 IP) against division opponents since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.18.

Pirates vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Ke’Bryan Hayes (Pirates): Back, D10
  • Max Kranick (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • Mitch Keller (Pirates): Shoulder, Day-to-Day
  • Yerry De Los Santos (Pirates): Lat, D60
  • Dillon Peters (Pirates): Elbow, D15
  • Canaan Smith-Njigba (Pirates): Wrist, D60
  • Roberto Pérez (Pirates): Hamstring, D60
  • Blake Cederlind (Pirates): Elbow, D60
  • David Bednar (Pirates): Back, D15
  • Orlando Arcia (Braves): Hamstring, D10
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Chadwick Tromp (Braves): Quad, D10
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.