Braves vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 2

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 02, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Braves (45-33) are -185 favorites vs the Reds (26-50)
  • Braves starting pitcher: Spencer Strider (3-2), 3.01 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Tyler Mahle (3-6), 4.53 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Atlanta Braves (-185) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+150) on Saturday, July 2, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Braves are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (-115).

The Braves vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Braves are 45-33 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 33-43 ATS.

Braves vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Braves-1.5 -115O 9 -115-185
Reds +1.5 -105U 9 -105+150

Braves vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Saturday‘s matchup with 68.4% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 44 of his last 64 games (+26.40 Units / 27% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 40 of his last 66 games (+17.75 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Dansby Swanson has hit the Total Bases Over in 42 of his last 64 games (+17.45 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 46 of his last 66 games (+14.25 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Michael Harris II has hit the Runs Over in 15 of his last 22 games (+13.50 Units / 61% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Brandon Drury has hit the Total Bases Over in 13 of his last 19 games (+9.25 Units / 48% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Hits Over in 14 of his last 19 games (+6.65 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in 11 of his last 17 games (+5.90 Units / 32% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Singles Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.65 Units / 61% ROI)
  • Albert Almora Jr. has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games (+5.55 Units / 27% ROI)

Reds vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Joey Votto 0.5 +240 0.5 -375
Jonathan India 0.5 +325 0.5 -550
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +475 0.5 -1100
Nick Senzel 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600

Reds vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 -225 0.5 +150
Joey Votto 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Jonathan India 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Nick Senzel 0.5 -160 0.5 +115

Reds vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Brandon Drury 0.5 +165 0.5 -250
Joey Votto 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Jonathan India 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Kyle Farmer 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Nick Senzel 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Reds vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Tyler Mahle 6.5 -130 6.5 -110
Spencer Strider 6.5 -110 6.5 -130
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 52 games (+17.82 Units / 28% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 22 of their last 28 games (+13.55 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 24 of their last 36 away games (+10.30 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 45 games (+7.15 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 63 games (+6.60 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 31 games at home (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 12 of their last 17 games (+8.60 Units / 45% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 27 of their last 50 games (+2.50 Units / 4% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 50 games (+0.45 Units / 1% ROI)

Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 40-38 against the Run Line (-1.5 Units / -1.49% ROI).

  • 45-33 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.85 Units / 0.7% ROI
  • 41-34 when betting on the total runs Over for +4.1 Units / 4.78% ROI
  • 34-41 when betting on the total runs Under for -11.2 Units / -13.01% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 33-43 against the Run Line (-16.4 Units / -17.15% ROI).

  • 26-50 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.95 Units / -23.25% ROI
  • 43-32 when betting on the total runs Over for +7.6 Units / 9.07% ROI
  • 32-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -15.7 Units / -18.71% ROI

63% of Spencer Strider’s strikeouts have come on 97+ MPH fastballs this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has struck out 33% (41/123) of left-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .098 (13-for-132) against Spencer Strider with two-strikes this season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: .170 — 98th Percentile.

Spencer Strider has a strikeout rate of 36% (79 SO in 218 PAs) this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 36 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Tyler Mahle: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (35/113) against Tyler Mahle this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .455 (15 GB hits out of 33 GBs) against Tyler Mahle with runners on base this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .226 — first Percentile.

Tyler Mahle has a strikeout rate of 41% (49 SO in 118 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Tyler Mahle has thrown his slider 39% of the time (445/1,133) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 20% — 100th Percentile.

Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Braves are 5-1 (.833) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 5-2 (.714) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Braves are 26-8 (.765) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .718.

The Braves are 24-17 (.585) at home this season — tied for 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .514.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Braves

The Reds are just 0-43 (.000) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .077.

The Reds are just 0-41 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .103.

The Reds are just 2-133 (.015) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Reds are just 25-36 (.410) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

Braves hitters are slugging .743 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .567.

Braves hitters have 219 extra-base hits out of 508 total hits (43%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Braves hitters have 261 extra-base hits out of 615 total hits (42%) against LHP since the start of 2020 — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 36%.

Braves hitters are slugging .522 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .393.

Reds hitters have drawn 58 walks in 799 PA’s (7%) against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .343 (4,414 PA’s) at home since the start of last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: .321.

The Reds are batting .262 at home since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .247.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 35% on the road this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 31% in close and late situations this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 50% with two-strikes over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 30% in late innings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 7.54 (105.0 IP) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.11.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.57 (660.2 IP) this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 4.01.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.84 (322.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.

Reds vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D60
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Alexis Díaz (Reds): Bicep, D15
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Matzek (Braves): Shoulder, D15
  • Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
  • Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
  • Eddie Rosario (Braves): Eye, D60
  • Kenley Jansen (Braves): Heart, D15
  • Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
  • Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.