- The Braves are -160 favorites vs the Royals
- Braves starting pitcher: Kyle Wright
- Royals starting pitcher: Donald Greinke
- Watch the game on BSKC
The Atlanta Braves (-160) visit Kauffman Stadium to take on the Kansas City Royals (+135) on Sunday, April 16, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 2:10pm EDT in Kansas City.
The Braves are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+100).
The Braves vs Royals Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Braves are 11-4 against the spread (ATS), while the Royals are 4-11 ATS.
Braves vs. Royals Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Braves | -1.5 +100 | O 9 +100 | -160 |
| Royals | +1.5 -120 | U 9 -120 | +135 |
Braves vs Royals Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s MLB matchup with 58.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Braves and Royals and up-to-date player injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Braves Player Prop Bets Today:
- Matt Olson has hit the RBIs Over in 8 of his last 12 games (+7.95 Units / 66% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.45 Units / 47% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+7.25 Units / 81% ROI)
- Sean Murphy has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.10 Units / 84% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the Runs Over in his last 7 away games (+7.00 Units / 77% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Royals players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Royals Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- MJ Melendez has hit the Singles Under in his last 8 games at home (+8.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Over in his last 5 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+6.25 Units / 62% ROI)
- Nicky Lopez has hit the Singles Under in his last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 88% ROI)
- Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 50% ROI)
Royals vs Braves Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tromp | 0.5 +800 | 0.5 -3000 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +650 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +750 | 0.5 -3000 |
Royals vs Braves Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tromp | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +115 |
| Eddie Rosario | 1.5 +200 | 1.5 -275 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +120 |
| Matt Olson | 1.5 +190 | 1.5 -250 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +110 |
Royals vs Braves RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Tromp | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
| Sam Hilliard | 0.5 +220 | 0.5 -300 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
Royals vs Braves Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Greinke | 3.5 +115 | 3.5 -150 |
| Kyle Wright | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Braves Best Bets Today:
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 8 away games (+6.70 Units / 64% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 15 games (+5.70 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Royals Best Bets Today:
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 92% ROI)
- The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 79% ROI)
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Braves have gone 7-8 against the Run Line (-0.75 Units / -4.2% ROI).
- 11-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +5.7 Units / 22.66% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.3 Units / 14.02% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.1 Units / -24.7% ROI
Royals Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Royals have gone 4-11 against the Run Line (-9.5 Units / -49.48% ROI).
- 4-11 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.35 Units / -35.67% ROI
- 9-6 when betting on the total runs Over for +2.35 Units / 14.2% ROI
- 6-9 when betting on the total runs Under for -3.9 Units / -23.71% ROI
Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 62% (154/247) against Kyle Wright since last season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 55% (282/511) against Kyle Wright since last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 95th Percentile.
Kyle Wright has located his fastball up for a strike just 49% (259/533) of the time since last season — 3rd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 60% — second Percentile.
Kyle Wright has thrown his curveball 42% of the time (222/526) with runners in scoring position since last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 22% — 96th Percentile.
Royals Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (58/164) against Zack Greinke on fastballs since last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 0 Percentile.
Zack Greinke has struck out just 10% (4/38) of right-handed batters he faced this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — seventh Percentile.
Zack Greinke has a first-pitch strike rate of 71% (50/70) this season — 5th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 61% — 93rd Percentile.
Zack Greinke has struck out just 10% (28/273) of left-handed batters he faced since last season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 70 total IP; League Avg: 22% — first Percentile.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Royals
The Braves are 22-16 (.579) when allowing 2 or more home runs since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .290.
The Braves are 13-3 (.812) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 7-1 (.875) on the road this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .486.
The Braves are 99-43 (.697) when favorites since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .604.
Royals Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Royals are just 2-5 (.286) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .735.
The Royals are just 5-46 (.098) when their opponents score in the first inning since the 2022 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .349.
The Royals are just 1-8 (.111) at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .514.
The Royals are just 29-58 (.333) on the road since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .469.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
The Braves are batting .340 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .259.
Braves hitters are slugging .442 on the road since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .390.
Braves hitters are slugging .309 with two-strikes since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .263.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .827 (1,321 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .715.
Royals Hitting Stats & Trends
Royals hitters have an OPS of just .617 (543 PA’s) this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .736.
Royals hitters have an OBP of just .273 (543 PA’s) this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .326.
Royals hitters have 40 strikeouts in 125 PA’s (32%) against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Royals are batting just .188 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .252.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Braves have allowed 2.50 runs per game (20/8) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.77.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers since last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Braves pitchers have an ERA of 2.41 (71.0 IP) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.59.
Royals Pitching Stats & Trends
Royals pitchers have walked 8 of 134 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Royals pitchers have walked 134 of 1,554 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Royals pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 38% with two-strikes since last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Royals pitchers this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Royals vs. Braves Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Jacob Brentz (Royals): Elbow, D60
- Kristofer Bubic (Royals): Flexor, D15
- Daniel A. Lynch (Royals): Shoulder, D15
- Angel Zerpa (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Drew Waters (Royals): Oblique, D10
- Diego Hernandez (Royals): Shoulder, D60
- Raisel Iglesias (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Michael Harris II (Braves): Back, D10
- Orlando Arcia (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Tyler Matzek (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Max Fried (Braves): Left Hamstring, D15
- Collin McHugh (Braves): Shoulder, D15
- Kolby Allard (Braves): Oblique, D60
- Travis d’Arnaud (Braves): Concussion, D7
- Huascar Ynoa (Braves): Elbow, D60
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