- The Brewers (63-54) are + favorites vs the Cubs (50-67)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (2-10), 4.23 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (9-5), 3.66 ERA
- Watch the game on MLB Network
The Milwaukee Brewers (+) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+) on Friday, August 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).
The Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 62-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 59-58 ATS.
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +105 | O 10 -105 | + |
| Cubs | +1.5 -130 | U 10 -115 | + |
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 41 away games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.45 Units / 41% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 62 games (+21.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+18.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 34 games at home (+15.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+15.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Cubs vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +310 | 0.5 -550 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +950 | 0.5 -10000 |
Cubs vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -135 | 0.5 -105 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +135 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +130 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Nick Madrigal | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +140 | 0.5 -200 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nelson Velazquez | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
Cubs vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Keegan Thompson | 3.5 -160 | 3.5 +110 |
| Aaron Ashby | 5.5 -165 | 5.5 +115 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 55 of their last 97 games (+15.25 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.17 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 36 away games (+3.85 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 22% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.65 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+4.40 Units / 39% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 32% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 47-69 against the Run Line (-28.2 Units / -19.99% ROI).
- 62-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -10.31% ROI
- 57-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -0.66% ROI
- 53-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -6.92% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 59-58 against the Run Line (-7.35 Units / -4.88% ROI).
- 50-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.25 Units / -11.36% ROI
- 50-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.6 Units / -12.14% ROI
- 60-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 3.98% ROI
Aaron Ashby: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Aaron Ashby has had third base stolen on him 4 times this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.
Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (461/807) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (139/250) against Aaron Ashby this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.
Aaron Ashby has walked 7 of 46 batters (15%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.
Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Keegan Thompson has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to July 26th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 9.
Keegan Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .273 (15 Total Bases / 55 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 93rd Percentile.
Keegan Thompson has averaged 89.5 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — 97th Percentile.
Keegan Thompson has struck out just 4% (1/26) of left-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 21% — second Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are just 5-24 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.
The Brewers are 14-7 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 32-30 (.516) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Brewers are 28-11 (.718) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.
The Cubs are just 24-34 (.414) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.
The Cubs are just 49-54 (.476) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.
The Cubs are just 7-31 (.184) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .684 (2,767 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.
The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 341 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs have won just 60% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.
Cubs hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs hitters are slugging .622 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 982 of 10,683 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Omar Narváez (Brewers): Quad, D10
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
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