Brewers vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 19

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 19, 2022, 3:36 PM
  • The Brewers (63-54) are + favorites vs the Cubs (50-67)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Ashby (2-10), 4.23 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Keegan Thompson (9-5), 3.66 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Milwaukee Brewers (+) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+) on Friday, August 19, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+105).

The Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under is 10 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 62-54 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 59-58 ATS.

Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +105O 10 -105+
Cubs +1.5 -130U 10 -115+

Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 69.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Cubs vs Brewers and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 52% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 41 away games (+9.80 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.45 Units / 41% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 48 of his last 62 games (+21.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+18.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 34 games at home (+15.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+15.35 Units / 32% ROI)

Cubs vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +310 0.5 -550
Ian Happ 0.5 +500 0.5 -1100
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Nick Madrigal 0.5 +950 0.5 -10000

Cubs vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -135 0.5 -105
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Ian Happ 0.5 -185 0.5 +130
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Nick Madrigal 1.5 +175 1.5 -250

Cubs vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +140 0.5 -200
Ian Happ 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Nelson Velazquez 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Nick Madrigal 0.5 +240 0.5 -375

Cubs vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Keegan Thompson 3.5 -160 3.5 +110
Aaron Ashby 5.5 -165 5.5 +115
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 55 of their last 97 games (+15.25 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 56 games (+9.17 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 36 away games (+3.85 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.25 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+12.00 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 40 games (+10.90 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 16 of their last 26 games (+4.65 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 7 of their last 11 games at home (+4.40 Units / 39% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games (+2.80 Units / 32% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 47-69 against the Run Line (-28.2 Units / -19.99% ROI).

  • 62-54 when betting on the Moneyline for -19 Units / -10.31% ROI
  • 57-53 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.85 Units / -0.66% ROI
  • 53-57 when betting on the total runs Under for -8.85 Units / -6.92% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 59-58 against the Run Line (-7.35 Units / -4.88% ROI).

  • 50-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.25 Units / -11.36% ROI
  • 50-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -15.6 Units / -12.14% ROI
  • 60-50 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.15 Units / 3.98% ROI

Aaron Ashby has had third base stolen on him 4 times this season — tied for 2nd most in MLB — 99th Percentile.

Hitters have swung at 57% of Aaron Ashby’s pitches in the zone (461/807) this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 67% — 0 Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 56% (139/250) against Aaron Ashby this season — 6th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 96th Percentile.

Aaron Ashby has walked 7 of 46 batters (15%) — 3rd highest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 7% — second Percentile.

Keegan Thompson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Keegan Thompson has allowed at least one HR in each of his last four games dating back to July 26th — Josiah Gray has the longest active streak at 9.

Keegan Thompson has allowed a slugging percentage of just .273 (15 Total Bases / 55 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — 8th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 57 total IP; League Avg: .416 — 93rd Percentile.

Keegan Thompson has averaged 89.5 MPH on sliders since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 138 total IP; League Avg: 85.1 — 97th Percentile.

Keegan Thompson has struck out just 4% (1/26) of left-handed batters he faced this month (3 games) — 2nd lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 21% — second Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Brewers are just 5-24 (.172) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .279.

The Brewers are 14-7 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are 32-30 (.516) on the road this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Brewers are 28-11 (.718) when scoring in the first inning this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .666.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Cubs are just 3-52 (.055) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .114.

The Cubs are just 24-34 (.414) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .529.

The Cubs are just 49-54 (.476) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .533.

The Cubs are just 7-31 (.184) when allowing 2 or more home runs this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .288.

The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

Brewers hitters have an OPS of just .684 (2,767 PA’s) against LHP since the start of last season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .726.

The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .244.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 341 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs have won just 60% of games in which they have scored in at least three different innings since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 74%.

Cubs hitters have put just 32% of balls in play to the right side of the field with runners in scoring position this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Cubs hitters are slugging .622 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .571.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 25% this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Cubs pitchers have walked 982 of 10,683 batters (9%) since the start of last season — tied for 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 16% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 40% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Omar Narváez (Brewers): Quad, D10
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.