- The Brewers (63-55) are -125 favorites vs the Cubs (51-67)
- Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta (4-3), 4.20 ERA
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (3-5), 3.96 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+105) on Saturday, August 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.
The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Brewers are 62-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 60-58 ATS.
Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Brewers | -1.5 +125 | O 9 -105 | -125 |
| Cubs | +1.5 -150 | U 9 -115 | +105 |
Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 74.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 42 away games (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
- Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Hunter Renfroe has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+10.20 Units / 45% ROI)
Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 49 of his last 63 games (+22.35 Units / 17% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+18.25 Units / 75% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 35 games at home (+16.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.55 Units / 43% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+15.35 Units / 32% ROI)
Cubs vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -400 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +350 | 0.5 -650 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +900 | 0.5 -10000 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
Cubs vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 -145 | 0.5 +100 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +145 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Nick Madrigal | 1.5 +165 | 1.5 -250 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +190 |
Cubs vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christopher Morel | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| Franmil Reyes | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -165 |
| Ian Happ | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nick Madrigal | 0.5 +230 | 0.5 -350 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +175 | 0.5 -250 |
Cubs vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Marcus Stroman | 4.5 -145 | 4.5 +100 |
| Freddy Peralta | 5.5 -140 | 5.5 +100 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Brewers Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 56 of their last 98 games (+16.25 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.17 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 27 away games (+3.30 Units / 11% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+11.00 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 47-70 against the Run Line (-29.2 Units / -20.56% ROI).
- 62-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.4 Units / -10.99% ROI
- 58-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.12% ROI
- 53-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.85 Units / -7.64% ROI
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 60-58 against the Run Line (-6.35 Units / -4.18% ROI).
- 51-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.05 Units / -10.39% ROI
- 51-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -11.26% ROI
- 60-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 3.18% ROI
Freddy Peralta: Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .103 (7 Total Bases / 68 ABs) on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .425 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .178 (125-for-702) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.
Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .237 (109 Total Bases / 460 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .386 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .138 (26-for-188) against Freddy Peralta when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (31/48) against Marcus Stroman this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has walked 10 of 207 batters (5%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.
Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (18/51) against Marcus Stroman with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Marcus Stroman has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (717/1,958) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Brewers are 14-7 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are just 5-25 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Brewers are 32-31 (.508) on the road this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Brewers are 96-78 (.552) on the road since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Cubs are 126-6 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Cubs are just 18-99 (.154) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.
The Cubs are just 8-34 (.190) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.
The Cubs are just 9-21 (.300) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.
Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 344 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.
Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Cubs hitters have 699 strikeouts in 2,794 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cubs pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
- Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
- Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
- Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
- Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
- Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
- Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
- Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10
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