Brewers vs Cubs Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 20

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 20, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Brewers (63-55) are -125 favorites vs the Cubs (51-67)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Freddy Peralta (4-3), 4.20 ERA
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (3-5), 3.96 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Milwaukee Brewers (-125) visit Wrigley Field to take on the Chicago Cubs (+105) on Saturday, August 20, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 2:20pm EDT in Chicago.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Brewers vs Cubs Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 62-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Cubs are 60-58 ATS.

Brewers vs. Cubs Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +125O 9 -105-125
Cubs +1.5 -150U 9 -115+105

Brewers vs Cubs Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Saturday‘s matchup with 74.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Cubs and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jace Peterson has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.35 Units / 47% ROI)
  • Jace Peterson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 17 away games (+12.05 Units / 45% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Runs Under in 28 of his last 42 away games (+11.05 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Kolten Wong has hit the Runs Under in his last 11 games (+11.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Hunter Renfroe has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 19 away games (+10.20 Units / 45% ROI)

Best Cubs Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 49 of his last 63 games (+22.35 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 16 of his last 21 games (+18.25 Units / 75% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 26 of his last 35 games at home (+16.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Total Bases Under in 19 of his last 21 games (+15.55 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 27 of his last 46 games (+15.35 Units / 32% ROI)

Cubs vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Ian Happ 0.5 +350 0.5 -650
Nick Madrigal 0.5 +900 0.5 -10000
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400

Cubs vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Franmil Reyes 0.5 -200 0.5 +145
Ian Happ 0.5 -200 0.5 +140
Nick Madrigal 1.5 +165 1.5 -250
Nico Hoerner 0.5 -275 0.5 +190

Cubs vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Christopher Morel 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
Franmil Reyes 0.5 +115 0.5 -165
Ian Happ 0.5 +150 0.5 -225
Nick Madrigal 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Nico Hoerner 0.5 +175 0.5 -250

Cubs vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Marcus Stroman 4.5 -145 4.5 +100
Freddy Peralta 5.5 -140 5.5 +100
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 56 of their last 98 games (+16.25 Units / 15% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 34 of their last 57 games (+8.17 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 15 of their last 27 away games (+3.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+11.00 Units / 24% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 41 games (+9.75 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 17 of their last 27 games (+5.85 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 17 of their last 29 games (+4.50 Units / 12% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.80 Units / 38% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 47-70 against the Run Line (-29.2 Units / -20.56% ROI).

  • 62-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -20.4 Units / -10.99% ROI
  • 58-53 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.15 Units / 0.12% ROI
  • 53-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.85 Units / -7.64% ROI

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 60-58 against the Run Line (-6.35 Units / -4.18% ROI).

  • 51-67 when betting on the Moneyline for -14.05 Units / -10.39% ROI
  • 51-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -14.6 Units / -11.26% ROI
  • 60-51 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.15 Units / 3.18% ROI

Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .103 (7 Total Bases / 68 ABs) on low fastballs since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .425 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .178 (125-for-702) against Freddy Peralta since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.

Freddy Peralta has allowed a slugging percentage of just .237 (109 Total Bases / 460 ABs) versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .386 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .138 (26-for-188) against Freddy Peralta when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: .243 — 100th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Opponents have a groundball rate of 65% (31/48) against Marcus Stroman this month (3 games) — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Marcus Stroman has walked 10 of 207 batters (5%) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 3rd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total IP; League Avg: 9% — 98th Percentile.

Opponents have a line drive rate of 35% (18/51) against Marcus Stroman with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 58 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.

Marcus Stroman has thrown his curveball 37% of the time (717/1,958) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 139 total CB; League Avg: 15% — 98th Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Brewers are 14-7 (.667) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Brewers are just 5-25 (.167) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

The Brewers are 32-31 (.508) on the road this season — tied for 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Brewers are 96-78 (.552) on the road since the 2020 season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .463.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Cubs are 126-6 (.955) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .913.

The Cubs are just 18-99 (.154) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .266.

The Cubs are just 8-34 (.190) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .277.

The Cubs are just 9-21 (.300) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .334.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.10 pitches per plate appearance against LHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Brewers are batting just .218 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

The Brewers are batting just .225 against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Brewers hitters have chased 25% of pitches out of the zone against LHP since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 48 double plays in 344 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .376 (66 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .643.

Cubs hitters have put just 34% of their swings in play against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.

Cubs hitters have 699 strikeouts in 2,794 PA’s (25%) against LHP since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 45% with two-strikes this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 47% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 14% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 20%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 45% against Cubs pitchers since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 20% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the start of last season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.

Cubs vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Adrian Houser (Brewers): Flexor, D15
  • Trevor Rosenthal (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Miguel Sánchez (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Forearm, D15
  • Jace Peterson (Brewers): Left Elbow, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.