Brewers vs Reds Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 17

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 17, 2022, 9:12 AM
  • The Brewers (35-30) are -115 favorites vs the Reds (23-40)
  • Brewers starting pitcher: Eric Lauer (5-2), 3.35 ERA
  • Reds starting pitcher: Christian Greene (3-7), 5.10 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSOH

The Milwaukee Brewers (-115) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-105) on Friday, June 17, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.

The Brewers are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+135).

The Brewers vs Reds Over/Under is 9.5 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Brewers are 35-30 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 29-34 ATS.

Brewers vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Brewers-1.5 +135O 9.5 -110-115
Reds +1.5 -160U 9.5 -110-105

Brewers vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Brewers will win Friday‘s matchup with 76.7% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Brewers and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Brewers Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Yelich has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+8.95 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Singles Over in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 65% ROI)
  • Willy Adames has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.40 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Omar Narvaez has hit the Singles Over in his last 5 away games (+5.25 Units / 104% ROI)
  • Christian Yelich has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+5.10 Units / 48% ROI)

Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Friday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Joey Votto has hit the Hits Over in his last 10 games at home (+10.00 Units / 46% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the Total Bases Over in 9 of his last 10 games at home (+9.25 Units / 79% ROI)
  • Joey Votto has hit the RBIs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the Runs Over in his last 5 games (+5.40 Units / 104% ROI)
  • Nick Senzel has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 59% ROI)

Reds vs Brewers Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600
Brandon Drury 0.5 +260 0.5 -400
Chris Okey 0.5 +450 0.5 -900
Joey Votto 0.5 +360 0.5 -650
Jonathan India 0.5 +300 0.5 -500

Reds vs Brewers Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 -200 0.5 +135
Chris Okey 0.5 -145 0.5 +100
Joey Votto 0.5 -185 0.5 +125
Jonathan India 0.5 -275 0.5 +185
Kyle Farmer 0.5 -275 0.5 +185

Reds vs Brewers RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Albert Almora Jr. 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
Brandon Drury 0.5 +135 0.5 -190
Chris Okey 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Joey Votto 0.5 +155 0.5 -225
Jonathan India 0.5 +155 0.5 -225

Reds vs Brewers Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Hunter Greene 6.5 -125 6.5 -110
Eric Lauer 5.5 +110 5.5 -160
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+7.10 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 26 of their last 45 games (+6.60 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.10 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the Run Line in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.00 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 25 of their last 35 games (+15.00 Units / 38% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 24 of their last 37 games (+10.15 Units / 25% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 23 of their last 37 games (+9.40 Units / 20% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 10 of their last 13 games at home (+7.15 Units / 42% ROI)
  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 37 games (+6.30 Units / 15% ROI)

Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 27-38 against the Run Line (-12.5 Units / -16.31% ROI).

  • 35-30 when betting on the Moneyline for -7.55 Units / -7.48% ROI
  • 32-30 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.7 Units / -0.96% ROI
  • 30-32 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.15 Units / -5.86% ROI

Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Brewers have gone 29-34 against the Run Line (-9.5 Units / -12.07% ROI).

  • 23-40 when betting on the Moneyline for -13.1 Units / -19.17% ROI
  • 34-28 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.1 Units / 4.46% ROI
  • 28-34 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.7 Units / -13.94% ROI

Eric Lauer has allowed a slugging percentage of 1.033 (31 Total Bases / 30 ABs) when behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .564 — first Percentile.

Eric Lauer has allowed an OPS of 1.658 (40 PA’s) when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 1.011 — first Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 31% (45/145) against Eric Lauer this season — 3rd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — fourth Percentile.

Opponents have a miss rate of 33% (65/197) against Eric Lauer on fastballs this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 18% — 98th Percentile.

Christian Greene: Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Hunter Greene has allowed a slugging percentage of .976 (41 Total Bases / 42 ABs) on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .425 — first Percentile.

Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of just 27% (19/70) against Hunter Greene this season — 2nd lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .480 (12-for-25) against Hunter Greene on low fastballs this season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .279 — third Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .452 (19-for-42) against Hunter Greene on inside fastballs this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .265 — first Percentile.

Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Reds

The Brewers are 3-23 (.115) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .075.

The Brewers are just 3-13 (.188) when allowing 10 or more hits this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .278.

The Brewers are 4-24 (.143) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Brewers are 108-15 (.878) when scoring 5 or more runs since the 2020 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .787.

Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers

The Reds are just 2-123 (.016) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Reds are just 0-33 (.000) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: .100.

The Reds are just 7-31 (.184) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Reds are just 22-32 (.407) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.

Brewers hitters are averaging 4.08 pitches per plate appearance this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.

The Brewers are batting just .220 against LHP this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .245.

Brewers hitters are slugging just .360 against LHP this season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .395.

The Brewers are batting just .224 at home since the start of 2020 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

Reds hitters have an OPS of just .595 (1,222 PA’s) on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .691.

Reds hitters have an OBP of .348 (1,091 PA’s) at home this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .316.

Reds hitters are slugging just .320 on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .384.

The Reds have a winning percentage of just 32% on the road this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Brewers pitchers since the start of last season — 3rd highest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 34% of their games since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 45%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 32% in close and late situations since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have induced opposing hitters to ground into just 31 double plays in 486 opportunities (6%) this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 10%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 39% against Reds pitchers this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Reds pitchers have walked 859 of 8,600 batters (10%) since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Reds pitchers have an ERA of 5.42 (259.0 IP) at home this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.85.

Reds vs. Brewers Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
  • Lucas Sims (Reds): Lower Back, D15
  • Aristides Aquino (Reds): Calf, D10
  • Donovan Solano (Reds): Hamstring, D60
  • Connor Overton (Reds): Back, D60
  • Nicholas Lodolo (Reds): Back, D10
  • Max Schrock (Reds): Calf, D60
  • Tyler Stephenson (Reds): Hand, D10
  • Jake Fraley (Reds): Knee, D60
  • Justin Wilson (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Forearm, D15
  • Daniel Duarte (Reds): Elbow, D60
  • Tyler Naquin (Reds): Quad, D10
  • Tejay Antone (Reds): Undisclosed, D60
  • Luis Perdomo (Brewers): Elbow, D15
  • Alex J Jackson (Brewers): Finger, D10
  • Trevor Gott (Brewers): Groin, D15
  • Jake O. Cousins (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Kolten Wong (Brewers): Calf, D10
  • Aaron Ashby (Brewers): Forearm, Day-to-Day
  • Brandon Woodruff (Brewers): Ankle, D15
  • Jandel Gustave (Brewers): Hamstring, D15
  • Justin Topa (Brewers): Elbow, D60
  • Freddy Peralta (Brewers): Lat, D60
  • Michael Brosseau (Brewers): Ankle, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.