- The Mets (89-53) are -450 favorites vs the Cubs (59-82)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Adrian Sampson (1-5), 3.75 ERA
- Mets starting pitcher: Jacob deGrom (5-1), 1.66 ERA
- Watch the game on SNY
The Chicago Cubs (+333) visit Citi Field to take on the New York Mets (-450) on Tuesday, September 13, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Flushing, Queens.
The Mets are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The Cubs vs Mets Over/Under is 6.5 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 58-81 against the spread (ATS), while the Mets are 76-63 ATS.
Cubs vs. Mets Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +2.5 -110 | O 6.5 +100 | +333 |
| Mets | -2.5 -110 | U 6.5 -120 | -450 |
Cubs vs Mets Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the will win Tuesday‘s matchup with confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Mets and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Frank Schwindel has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 19 away games (+16.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 29 away games (+13.35 Units / 45% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+12.60 Units / 23% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in 17 of his last 24 away games (+10.25 Units / 24% ROI)
- Franmil Reyes has hit the Hits Over in 23 of his last 31 games (+9.55 Units / 16% ROI)
Best Mets Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mets players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Jeff McNeil has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 43 games (+14.90 Units / 16% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 22 of his last 38 games at home (+14.35 Units / 26% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Over in 45 of his last 60 games (+14.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor has hit the Singles Over in 33 of his last 52 games (+13.80 Units / 25% ROI)
- Brandon Nimmo has hit the Singles Under in 23 of his last 34 games at home (+13.20 Units / 37% ROI)
Mets vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1000 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -900 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -700 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
Mets vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +185 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| James McCann | 0.5 -155 | 0.5 +110 |
Mets vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Brandon Nimmo | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -275 |
| Daniel Vogelbach | 0.5 +185 | 0.5 -275 |
| Eduardo Escobar | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -225 |
| Francisco Lindor | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -200 |
| James McCann | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
Mets vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob deGrom | 9.5 -160 | 9.5 +115 |
| Adrian Sampson | 2.5 -130 | 2.5 -110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 39 of their last 64 games (+16.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 27 games (+7.00 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in their last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games (+2.35 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 13 away games (+1.85 Units / 13% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mets: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The New York Mets have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 81 of their last 142 games (+11.67 Units / 7% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games at home (+6.10 Units / 32% ROI)
- The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in their last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 88% ROI)
- The New York Mets have covered the Run Line in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.85 Units / 21% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 69-69 against the Run Line (-10.9 Units / -6.17% ROI).
- 58-81 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.45 Units / -11.68% ROI
- 57-70 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.65 Units / -12.96% ROI
- 70-57 when betting on the total runs Under for +7.4 Units / 4.85% ROI
Mets Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 76-63 against the Run Line (+12.45 Units / 7.19% ROI).
- 88-51 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.8 Units / 5.14% ROI
- 71-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +3.65 Units / 2.38% ROI
- 61-71 when betting on the total runs Under for -17.1 Units / -11.18% ROI
Adrian Sampson: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Adrian Sampson has induced opposing hitters to ground into 9 double plays in 45 opportunities (20%) this season — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 11% — 99th Percentile.
Adrian Sampson has a strikeout rate of just 21% (5 SO in 24 PAs) with two-strikes this month (2 games) — 5th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 42% — sixth Percentile.
Adrian Sampson had a first-pitch strike rate of 86% (18/21) — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 64% — 100th Percentile.
Left-handed hitters have a line drive rate of 31% (40/130) against Adrian Sampson this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 69 total IP; League Avg: 23% — first Percentile.
Jacob deGrom: Mets Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .190 (744 PA’s) since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 43% (270/630) against Jacob deGrom since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Jacob deGrom has allowed an OBP of just .136 (494 PA’s) with two-strikes since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: .235 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .138 (35-for-253) against Jacob deGrom versus the 2-3-4 hitters since the start of 2020 — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 180 total IP; League Avg: .257 — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Mets
The Cubs are just 18-105 (.146) when allowing 10 or more hits since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .267.
The Cubs are 126-15 (.894) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .876.
The Cubs are just 16-21 (.432) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Cubs are just 86-97 (.470) at home since the 2020 season — tied for 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .537.
Mets Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Mets are 106-74 (.589) at home since the 2020 season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .537.
The Mets are just 155-16 (.906) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .914.
The Mets are 76-27 (.738) when scoring in the first inning since the 2020 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .647.
The Mets are 25-18 (.581) when tied entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters are slugging just .156 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .351.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 51 double plays in 364 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters have an OPS of just .361 (84 PA’s) in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .652.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 16 double plays in 66 opportunities (24%) over the last 14 days (12 games) — highest in MLB; League Avg: 11%.
Mets Hitting Stats & Trends
The Mets have scored first in 70% of their home games this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .336 (3,748 PA’s) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .311.
Mets hitters have just 731 strikeouts in 3,748 PA’s (20%) against RHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mets hitters have an OBP of .324 (7,812 PA’s) against RHP since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .313.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 15% when going through the lineup the third time in a game since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 19%.
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,073 of 11,612 batters (9%) since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 17% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Mets Pitching Stats & Trends
The Mets pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 30% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers since the start of last season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Mets pitchers have walked 75 of 1,264 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Mets pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Mets vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Bryce Montes de Oca (Mets): Hamstring, D15
- Brett Baty (Mets): Thumb, D10
- John Curtiss (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Lucchesi (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Andrew Smith (Mets): Back, D15
- Stephen Nogosek (Mets): Oblique, D15
- Starling Marte (Mets): Hand, D10
- Maxwell Scherzer (Mets): Side, D15
- Tylor Megill (Mets): Shoulder, D60
- Sean Reid-Foley (Mets): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Hoerner (Cubs): Triceps, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Nelson Velázquez (Cubs): Illness, Day-to-Day
- Steven Brault (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Keegan Thompson (Cubs): Back, D15
- Willson Contreras (Cubs): Foot, D10
- Justin Steele (Cubs): Undisclosed, D15
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D60
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D60
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