Cubs vs Phillies Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jul 23

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jul 23, 2022, 3:35 PM
  • The Phillies (49-44) are -165 favorites vs the Cubs (36-57)
  • Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (2-5), 4.68 ERA
  • Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (8-5), 2.89 ERA
  • Watch the game on NBCS-PH

The Chicago Cubs (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.

The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).

The Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Cubs are 36-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-44 ATS.

Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Cubs+1.5 -145O 8 -115+140
Phillies -1.5 +120U 8 -105-165

Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 72.3% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Phillies vs Cubs and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+16.00 Units / 66% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 40 games (+14.95 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.30 Units / 95% ROI)
  • Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+12.25 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.10 Units / 50% ROI)

Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+16.10 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Jean Segura has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)

Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +575 0.5 -1400
Bryson Stott 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
Darick Hall 0.5 +400 0.5 -750
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +425 0.5 -800

Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 -225 0.5 +160
Bryson Stott 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Darick Hall 0.5 -175 0.5 +125
Didi Gregorius 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 -275 0.5 +180

Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Alec Bohm 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Bryson Stott 0.5 +200 0.5 -300
Darick Hall 0.5 +180 0.5 -275
Didi Gregorius 0.5 +195 0.5 -300
J.T. Realmuto 0.5 +170 0.5 -250

Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Zack Wheeler 6.5 -140 6.5 +100
Marcus Stroman 5.5 +120 5.5 -175
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 92 games (+13.80 Units / 13% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 away games (+6.00 Units / 14% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.75 Units / 27% ROI)
  • The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.90 Units / 49% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+11.20 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.85 Units / 22% ROI)
  • The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.65 Units / 14% ROI)

Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 47-46 against the Run Line (-6.65 Units / -5.55% ROI).

  • 36-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.5 Units / -17.01% ROI
  • 43-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -6.24% ROI
  • 45-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -2.05% ROI

Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-44 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 4.98% ROI).

  • 49-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.38% ROI
  • 48-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 0.88% ROI
  • 43-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.65 Units / -9.43% ROI

Left-handed batters are hitting just .048 (1-for-21) against Marcus Stroman — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .217 — 98th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .103 (3-for-29) against Marcus Stroman — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (14/20) against Marcus Stroman this month (2 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.

Opponents had a groundball rate of 78% (7/9) against Marcus Stroman — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.

Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.4 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (392 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 85.4

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (370/770) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 97th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 72.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (200 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 80.2

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (535/1,255) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.

Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies

The Cubs are just 11-45 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.

The Cubs are just 18-32 (.360) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.

The Cubs are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Cubs are just 3-47 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.

Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Phillies are 8-33 (.195) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.

The Phillies are 9-32 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.

The Phillies are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.

Cubs hitters have grounded into 44 double plays in 297 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

Cubs hitters are slugging just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .346.

Cubs hitters are slugging .648 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .564.

Cubs hitters have 1,782 strikeouts in 6,965 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

Phillies hitters have just 12 strikeouts in 73 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Phillies hitters have 241 extra-base hits out of 643 total hits (38%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

Phillies hitters have drawn 102 walks in 1,021 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.

The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.

Cubs pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball batting average of .265 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .217.

The Phillies have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (2,221 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.

Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
  • Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
  • James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
  • Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
  • Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
  • Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
  • Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
  • Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
  • Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
  • Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
  • Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
  • Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
  • Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
  • Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
  • Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.