- The Phillies (49-44) are -165 favorites vs the Cubs (36-57)
- Cubs starting pitcher: Marcus Stroman (2-5), 4.68 ERA
- Phillies starting pitcher: Zachary Wheeler (8-5), 2.89 ERA
- Watch the game on NBCS-PH
The Chicago Cubs (+140) visit Citizens Bank Park to take on the Philadelphia Phillies (-165) on Saturday, July 23, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 6:05pm EDT in Philadelphia.
The Phillies are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+120).
The Cubs vs Phillies Over/Under is 8 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Cubs are 36-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Phillies are 49-44 ATS.
Cubs vs. Phillies Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | +1.5 -145 | O 8 -115 | +140 |
| Phillies | -1.5 +120 | U 8 -105 | -165 |
Cubs vs Phillies Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Phillies will win Saturday‘s matchup with 72.3% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Phillies and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+16.00 Units / 66% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Hits Over in 31 of his last 40 games (+14.95 Units / 19% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Hits Under in 10 of his last 13 games (+12.30 Units / 95% ROI)
- Ian Happ has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 45 games (+12.25 Units / 20% ROI)
- Rafael Ortega has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.10 Units / 50% ROI)
Best Phillies Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Phillies players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 42 games (+16.10 Units / 23% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Singles Over in 16 of his last 19 games at home (+12.20 Units / 51% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 29% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Hits Over in 21 of his last 26 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)
- Jean Segura has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 26 games (+10.15 Units / 30% ROI)
Phillies vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -2000 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +400 | 0.5 -750 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +725 | 0.5 -2500 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
Phillies vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +135 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 -175 | 0.5 +125 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +130 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +180 |
Phillies vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Alec Bohm | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Bryson Stott | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
| Darick Hall | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -275 |
| Didi Gregorius | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -300 |
| J.T. Realmuto | 0.5 +170 | 0.5 -250 |
Phillies vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler | 6.5 -140 | 6.5 +100 |
| Marcus Stroman | 5.5 +120 | 5.5 -175 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Cubs Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 53 of their last 92 games (+13.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+7.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the Run Line in 20 of their last 32 away games (+6.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 16 games (+4.75 Units / 27% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 8 away games (+3.90 Units / 49% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Phillies: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the Run Line in 26 of their last 42 games (+13.05 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 88 games (+11.20 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 43 games (+10.15 Units / 17% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 28 games (+6.85 Units / 22% ROI)
- The Philadelphia Phillies have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 10 of their last 17 games (+2.65 Units / 14% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 47-46 against the Run Line (-6.65 Units / -5.55% ROI).
- 36-57 when betting on the Moneyline for -17.5 Units / -17.01% ROI
- 43-45 when betting on the total runs Over for -6.4 Units / -6.24% ROI
- 45-43 when betting on the total runs Under for -2.1 Units / -2.05% ROI
Phillies Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 49-44 against the Run Line (+5.65 Units / 4.98% ROI).
- 49-44 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.95 Units / -2.38% ROI
- 48-43 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.9 Units / 0.88% ROI
- 43-48 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.65 Units / -9.43% ROI
Marcus Stroman: Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Left-handed batters are hitting just .048 (1-for-21) against Marcus Stroman — 2nd best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .217 — 98th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .103 (3-for-29) against Marcus Stroman — tied for best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .233 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 70% (14/20) against Marcus Stroman this month (2 games) — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 7 total IP; League Avg: 43% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents had a groundball rate of 78% (7/9) against Marcus Stroman — highest in MLB over the last week; League Avg: 42% — 100th Percentile.
Zachary Wheeler: Phillies Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 79.4 MPH on inside pitches since the start of last season (392 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 85.4
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 48% of the time (370/770) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 34% — 97th Percentile.
Zack Wheeler has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 72.4 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 (200 balls in play) — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 156 total IP; League Avg: 80.2
Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (535/1,255) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 100th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Phillies
The Cubs are just 11-45 (.196) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .295.
The Cubs are just 18-32 (.360) at home this season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .521.
The Cubs are just 2-43 (.044) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Cubs are just 3-47 (.060) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .085.
Phillies Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Phillies are 8-33 (.195) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .085.
The Phillies are 9-32 (.220) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .115.
The Phillies are just 35-6 (.854) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 9th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .885.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters have grounded into 44 double plays in 297 opportunities (15%) in close and late situations since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs hitters are slugging just .164 in lefty-lefty matchups this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .346.
Cubs hitters are slugging .648 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .564.
Cubs hitters have 1,782 strikeouts in 6,965 PA’s (26%) against RHP since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Phillies Hitting Stats & Trends
The Phillies are just 1-9 (.100) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Phillies hitters have just 12 strikeouts in 73 PA’s (16%) against LHP over the last 14 days (7 games) — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Phillies hitters have 241 extra-base hits out of 643 total hits (38%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.
Phillies hitters have drawn 102 walks in 1,021 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 38% of their games at home this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 54%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 34% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 12% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Phillies Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 46% against Phillies pitchers since the start of last season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball batting average of .265 against Phillies pitchers with the shift this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: .217.
The Phillies have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Phillies pitchers have allowed an average Exit Velocity of 87.9 MPH (2,221 batted balls) this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 88.7.
Phillies vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Hans Crouse (Phillies): COVID-19, D60
- Zachary Eflin (Phillies): Knee, D15
- James McArthur (Phillies): Elbow, D60
- Ryan Sherriff (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Bryce Harper (Phillies): Thumb, D10
- Jean Segura (Phillies): Finger, D60
- Samuel Coonrod (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicholas Maton (Phillies): Shoulder, D10
- Damon Jones (Phillies): Shoulder, D60
- Nicklaus Madrigal (Cubs): Groin, D10
- Wade Miley (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Manuel Rodríguez (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Bradley Wieck (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Michael Hermosillo (Cubs): Quad, D60
- Andrelton Simmons (Cubs): Shoulder, D10
- Adbert Alzolay (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Alec Mills (Cubs): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Shoulder, D60
- Jason Heyward (Cubs): Knee, D10
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