- The Cubs are -135 favorites vs the Reds
- Cubs starting pitcher: Hayden Wesneski
- Reds starting pitcher: Luis Cessa
- Watch the game on BSOH
The Chicago Cubs (-135) visit Great American Ball Park to take on the Cincinnati Reds (+110) on Tuesday, April 4, 2023. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40pm EDT in Cincinnati.
The Cubs are the betting favorite in this game, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Cubs vs Reds Over/Under is 9 total runs for the game.
This season, the Cubs are 1-3 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 3-1 ATS.
Cubs vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Cubs | -1.5 +125 | O 9 +100 | -135 |
| Reds | +1.5 -155 | U 9 -120 | +110 |
Cubs vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Cubs will win Tuesday‘s MLB matchup with 58.5% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Cubs and Reds and up-to-date player injuries.
Bet now on Cubs vs Reds and all games with BetMGM
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Cubs players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Cubs Player Prop Bets Today:
- Willson Contreras has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Seiya Suzuki has hit the Hits Under in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Christopher Morel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 39% ROI)
- Nico Hoerner has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Nelson Velazquez has hit the Singles Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Spencer Steer has hit the RBIs Over in his last game (+2.00 Units / 200% ROI)
- Nick Senzel has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Michael Siani has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Stuart Fairchild has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Kyle Farmer has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 36% ROI)
Reds vs Cubs Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +475 | 0.5 -1100 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +600 | 0.5 -1600 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -1400 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -600 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +700 | 0.5 -2500 |
Reds vs Cubs Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +160 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 -160 | 0.5 +120 |
| Nico Hoerner | 1.5 +145 | 1.5 -190 |
Reds vs Cubs RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| TJ Friedl | 0.5 +195 | 0.5 -275 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 0.5 +180 | 0.5 -250 |
| Jonathan India | 0.5 +250 | 0.5 -350 |
| Patrick Wisdom | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -225 |
| Nico Hoerner | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -275 |
Reds vs Cubs Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Hayden Wesneski | 4.5 -135 | 4.5 +105 |
Cubs Best Bets Today:
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 86 of their last 166 games (+12.85 Units / 7% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 88 of their last 164 games (+7.70 Units / 4% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 18 of their last 30 away games (+6.70 Units / 20% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 34 of their last 82 away games (+5.15 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 37 of their last 82 away games (+3.75 Units / 4% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 37 of their last 66 games at home (+7.15 Units / 10% ROI)
Cubs Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Cubs have gone 1-3 against the Run Line (-2.65 Units / -50.96% ROI).
- 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -50.56% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.35 Units / -7.61% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.15 Units / -3.57% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Reds have gone 3-1 against the Run Line (+2.95 Units / 64.84% ROI).
- 3-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 31.07% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.15 Units / -3.33% ROI
- 2-2 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.05 Units / -1.16% ROI
Cubs Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents had a line drive rate of just 14% (12/89) versus Hayden Wesneski over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 4th lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 23% — 98th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski allowed an OBP of just .135 (37 PA’s) versus the bottom of the order over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: .285 — 99th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski walked 1 of 47 left-handed batters (2%) over the last 30 days of the regular season (6 games) — 6th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 8% — 94th Percentile.
Hayden Wesneski had an ERA of 1.56 (17.1 IP) against division opponents over the last 30 days of the regular season (3 games) — 10th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 11 total IP; League Avg: 3.98 — 91st Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Cessa has a strike rate of just 61% (364/592) in two strike counts since the 2021 season — 9th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 66% — ninth Percentile.
Luis Cessa has struck out just 18% (58/327) of right-handed batters he faced since the 2021 season — 9th lowest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.
The last hit on a Luis Cessa fastball was September 28th, 2022. Hitters are 0 for their last 20 in ABs ending on his fastball. — this is the longest active streak among active MLB players.
87% of Luis Cessa’s called strikeouts are outside since the 2021 season — 3rd highest among qualified RPs in MLB*; League Avg: 53% — 98th Percentile.
Cubs Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Cubs are just 32-21 (.604) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits since the 2021 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .809.
The Cubs are just 57-43 (.570) when totaling 10 or more hits since the 2021 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Cubs were just 19-11 (.633) when totaling 5 or more extra base hits in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .803.
The Cubs were just 1-72 (.014) when trailing entering the 9th inning in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .046.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Cubs
The Reds were just 14-24 (.368) when scoring in the first inning in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .664.
The Reds were just 17-21 (.447) when hitting 2 or more home runs in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Reds are 24-13 (.649) when tied entering the 8th inning since the 2021 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Reds were just 38-17 (.691) when scoring 5 or more runs in 2022 — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .805.
Cubs Hitting Stats & Trends
Cubs hitters slugged just .185 in lefty-lefty matchups in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .347.
The Cubs batted .371 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — best in MLB; League Avg: .336.
Cubs hitters have grounded into 55 double plays in 391 opportunities (14%) in close and late situations since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
The Cubs are batting just .154 with two-strikes since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .168.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds batted just .298 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .336.
The Reds won only 41% of their home games in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
Reds hitters slugged just .366 against RHP in 2022 — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .393.
Reds hitters slugged just .485 on the first pitch of at-bats in 2022 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .560.
Cubs Pitching Stats & Trends
Cubs pitchers have walked 1,154 of 12,518 batters (9%) since the 2021 season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
The Cubs pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games on the road since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 46%.
Cubs pitchers have won only 19% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings at home since the 2021 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 28%.
The Cubs pitchers allowed their opponents to score first in just 41% of their games in 2022 — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Reds pitchers walked 612 of 6,220 batters (10%) in 2022 — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers have walked 262 of 2,903 batters (9%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the 2021 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Opponents had a groundball batting average of .275 against Reds pitchers in 2022 — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: .238.
Reds pitchers have walked 1,457 of 14,699 batters (10%) since the 2020 season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds vs. Cubs Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Tejay Antone (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Justin Dunn (Reds): Shoulder, D60
- Jose Israel Barrero (Reds): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
- Antonio Santillan (Reds): Back, D15
- Nicholas Senzel (Reds): Toe, D10
- Vladimir Gutierrez (Reds): Elbow, D60
- Joseph Votto (Reds): Bicep/Shoulder, D10
- Luke Weaver (Reds): Forearm, D15
- Lucas Sims (Reds): Back, D15
- Ethan Roberts (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Codi Heuer (Cubs): Elbow, D60
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): Oblique, D10
- Patrick Wisdom (Cubs): Wrist, Day-to-Day
- Kyle Hendricks (Cubs): Shoulder, D15
- Brandon Hughes (Cubs): Knee, D15
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