- The – (67-33) are favorites vs the – (67-33)
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Kenneth Kelly (10-5), 3.04 ERA
- Braves starting pitcher: Max Fried (10-3), 2.72 ERA
- Watch the game on BSSE
The Arizona Diamondbacks () visit Truist Park to take on the Atlanta Braves () on Sunday, July 31, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35pm EDT in Atlanta.
The – are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at ().
The Diamondbacks vs Braves Over/Under is total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 45-55 against the spread (ATS), while the Braves are 53-49 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs. Braves Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | O | ||
| Braves | U |
Diamondbacks vs Braves Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Braves will win Sunday‘s matchup with 62.7% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Braves and up-to-date player injuries.
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Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 37 of his last 61 games (+29.55 Units / 44% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Total Bases Under in 44 of his last 61 games (+17.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 45 of his last 64 games (+15.05 Units / 15% ROI)
- Christian Walker has hit the Runs Under in 36 of his last 53 games (+12.70 Units / 16% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 33 games (+9.90 Units / 25% ROI)
Best Braves Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Braves players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Matt Olson has hit the Singles Under in 63 of his last 90 games (+20.95 Units / 14% ROI)
- Austin Riley has hit the Hits Over in 38 of his last 59 games (+17.55 Units / 18% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Singles Over in 53 of his last 90 games (+17.05 Units / 17% ROI)
- Dansby Swanson has hit the Hits Over in 52 of his last 88 games (+15.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- Ronald Acuna Jr. has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 23 games (+14.85 Units / 35% ROI)
Braves vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +260 | 0.5 -400 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +300 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -800 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +240 | 0.5 -375 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +625 | 0.5 -1600 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Dansby Swanson | 1.5 +175 | 1.5 -250 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +165 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
| Travis D'Arnaud | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +170 |
| Buddy Kennedy | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +140 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Austin Riley | 0.5 +105 | 0.5 -150 |
| Dansby Swanson | 0.5 +115 | 0.5 -160 |
| Eddie Rosario | 0.5 +165 | 0.5 -250 |
| Matt Olson | 0.5 +100 | 0.5 -145 |
| Michael Harris | 0.5 +200 | 0.5 -300 |
Braves vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Fried | 5.5 -125 | 5.5 -115 |
| Merrill Kelly | 4.5 -155 | 4.5 +110 |
Positive Betting Trends for the Diamondbacks Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 89 games (+13.65 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 22 games (+12.70 Units / 51% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 13 of their last 22 games (+5.75 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 39 of their last 78 games (+5.45 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 23 away games (+5.10 Units / 20% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Braves: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 51 of their last 76 games (+21.42 Units / 23% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 52 games (+14.30 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 18 of their last 26 games at home (+9.15 Units / 32% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.70 Units / 58% ROI)
- The Atlanta Braves have covered the Run Line in 52 of their last 94 games (+7.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 57-43 against the Run Line (+10.95 Units / 8.45% ROI).
- 45-55 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -3.85% ROI
- 43-52 when betting on the total runs Over for -13.75 Units / -12.57% ROI
- 52-43 when betting on the total runs Under for +3.85 Units / 3.47% ROI
Braves Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 53-49 against the Run Line (+0.05 Units / 0.04% ROI).
- 61-41 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.6 Units / 0.95% ROI
- 51-47 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.3 Units / -0.27% ROI
- 47-51 when betting on the total runs Under for -9.25 Units / -8.22% ROI
Kenneth Kelly: Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Merrill Kelly did not allow a runner to reach base (15 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last week; League Avg: .305 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .150 (9-for-60) against Merrill Kelly’s elevated fastball this season — tied for 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .222 — 88th Percentile.
Merrill Kelly has allowed an OBP of just .087 (23 PA’s) against right-handed batters — best in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: .317 — 100th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .255 (12-for-47) against Merrill Kelly on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .333 — 88th Percentile.
Max Fried: Braves Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
15 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches this season — 3rd most among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: nan — 96th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an OPS of just .454 (110 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .687 — 98th Percentile.
Max Fried has allowed an average Exit Velocity of just 73.6 MPH on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season (137 balls in play) — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 130 total IP; League Avg: 80.3
39 of Max Fried’s breaking pitch strikeouts are backdoor on breaking pitches since the start of last season — 2nd most in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 131 total IP; League Avg: nan — 99th Percentile.
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Braves
The Diamondbacks are just 91-26 (.778) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .874.
The Diamondbacks are just 100-17 (.855) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .913.
The Diamondbacks are just 44-49 (.473) when allowing 5 or more extra base hits this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .535.
The Diamondbacks are just 6-9 (.400) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Braves Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Braves are 27-3 (.900) when scoring in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .663.
The Braves are 54-13 (.806) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .707.
The Braves are 5-3 (.625) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Braves are 42-5 (.894) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .795.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting just .189 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .242.
The Diamondbacks have a winning percentage of just 30% on the road since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Diamondbacks hitters have an OPS of just .580 (1,912 PA’s) in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .708.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .310 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .399.
Braves Hitting Stats & Trends
Braves hitters are slugging .532 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game since the start of last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .450.
Braves hitters are slugging .497 on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Braves hitters have put just 33% of their swings in play against LHP this season — tied for lowest in MLB; League Avg: 37%.
Braves hitters have an OPS of .843 (751 PA’s) on pitches 95 mph or greater this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .724.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 20% since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves Pitching Stats & Trends
Braves pitchers have picked-off 9 runners from first base this season — best in MLB.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 46% with two-strikes this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Opponents have a miss rate of 28% against Braves pitchers this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Braves pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Braves vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Ozhanio Albies (Braves): Foot, D60
- Darren O’Day (Braves): Calf, D15
- Kirby Yates (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Michael Soroka (Braves): Achilles, D60
- Kenley Jansen (Braves): Back, Day-to-Day
- Manuel Piña (Braves): Wrist, D60
- Luke Jackson (Braves): Elbow, D60
- Adam Duvall (Braves): Wrist, D10
- Keynan Middleton (Diamondbacks): Ankle, D15
- Tyler Gilbert (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D15
- Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
- Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
- Zachary Davies (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D15
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