- The Diamondbacks are -105 favorites vs the Brewers
- Diamondbacks vs Brewers Over / Under today: 8.5 Runs
- Diamondbacks / Brewers TV Channel: DBTV | BSWI
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-105) visit American Family Field to take on the Milwaukee Brewers (-115) on Saturday, September 21, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10pm EDT in Milwaukee, WI.
This season, the Diamondbacks are 86-68 against the spread (ATS), while the Brewers are 79-75 ATS.
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Starting Pitchers Today:
- Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Merrill Kelly 4-0, 4.00 ERA
- Brewers starting pitcher: Aaron Civale 7-8, 4.49 ERA
Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Diamondbacks | -1.5 +165 | O 8.5 -110 | -105 |
| Brewers | +1.5 -200 | U 8.5 -110 | -115 |
Diamondbacks vs Brewers Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Diamondbacks will win Saturday‘s MLB game with 51.9% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today:
- Corbin Carroll has hit the Home Runs Over in 9 of his last 35 games (+37.10 Units / 106% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Runs Over in 29 of his last 50 games (+21.10 Units / 42% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 13 games (+11.90 Units / 90% ROI)
- Joc Pederson has hit the Walks Over in 18 of his last 31 games (+11.80 Units / 37% ROI)
- Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 28 of his last 46 games (+11.10 Units / 21% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Brewers players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Brewers Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Garrett Mitchell has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 16 games (+36.80 Units / 230% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Total Bases Over in 32 of his last 50 games (+20.80 Units / 40% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the Singles Under in 27 of his last 39 games (+17.90 Units / 45% ROI)
- Jackson Chourio has hit the RBIs Under in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 41% ROI)
- Willy Adames has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games (+7.95 Units / 57% ROI)
Diamondbacks Best Bets Today:
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 65 of their last 98 games (+31.50 Units / 29% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 97 games (+21.95 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 29 of their last 45 away games (+12.05 Units / 19% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 19 of their last 29 games (+8.85 Units / 26% ROI)
- The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 13 of their last 21 away games (+4.90 Units / 20% ROI)
Brewers Best Bets Today:
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 49 games (+49.00 Units / 69% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 88 of their last 154 games (+10.65 Units / 5% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 150 games (+10.60 Units / 6% ROI)
- The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 85 of their last 154 games (+6.04 Units / 3% ROI)
Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Diamondbacks are 79-75 against the Run Line (-2.9 Units / -1.43% ROI).
- 86-68 when betting on the Moneyline for +12.2 Units / 6.22% ROI
- 88-61 when betting on the total runs Over for +20.15 Units / 11.81% ROI
- 61-88 when betting on the total runs Under for -35.55 Units / -21.12% ROI
Brewers Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Brewers are 79-75 against the Run Line (-1.05 Units / -0.52% ROI).
- 88-66 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.65 Units / 5.42% ROI
- 79-65 when betting on the total runs Over for +8.4 Units / 4.99% ROI
- 65-79 when betting on the total runs Under for -22.1 Units / -12.97% ROI
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +320 | 0.5 -400 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +333 | 0.5 -450 |
| Joc Pederson (ARI) | 0.5 +360 | 0.5 -500 |
| Eugenio Suarez (ARI) | 0.5 +375 | 0.5 -500 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 -275 | 0.5 +200 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +185 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr (ARI) | 0.5 -250 | 0.5 +175 |
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 -225 | 0.5 +165 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +155 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Willy Adames (MIL) | 0.5 +125 | 0.5 -160 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | 0.5 +130 | 0.5 -165 |
| Christian Walker (ARI) | 0.5 +145 | 0.5 -190 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | 0.5 +150 | 0.5 -200 |
| Rhys Hoskins (MIL) | 0.5 +155 | 0.5 -210 |
Brewers vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Merrill Kelly (ARI) | 4.5 -130 | 4.5 +100 |
| Aaron Civale (MIL) | 4.5 -120 | 4.5 -110 |
Diamondbacks Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of 62% (173/278) against Merrill Kelly on non-fastballs since last season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 98th Percentile.
The last hit on a Merrill Kelly changeup was August 31st. Hitters are 0 for their last 21 in ABs ending on his changeup. — Hunter Gaddis has the longest active streak at 28.
Merrill Kelly has located his breaking pitches away 73% of the time (145/199) this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 52% — 99th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 69% (33/48) against Merrill Kelly’s changeup this season — 3rd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 50% — 97th Percentile.
Brewers Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale in the 2023 season was 381.0 feet — 2nd best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP; League Avg: 399.3
Aaron Civale has thrown elevated pitches 48% of the time (606/1,261) vs left-handed batters this season — 2nd highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 32% — 98th Percentile.
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale this season is 384.4 feet — 4th best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 397.9
The average home run distance against Aaron Civale since last season is 383.4 feet — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 126 total IP; League Avg: 398.5
Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Brewers
The Diamondbacks are 20-16 (.556) when their opponents score in the first inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .356.
The Diamondbacks are 24-14 (.632) after a road win this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .463.
The Diamondbacks are 63-14 (.808) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .723.
The Diamondbacks are just 187-29 (.866) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2022 season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .905.
Brewers Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks
The Brewers are 36-82 (.305) when allowing 5 or more runs since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .209.
The Brewers are 13-6 (.684) when tied entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Brewers are 38-27 (.585) after a loss this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .508.
The Brewers are 17-12 (.586) after a road loss this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .485.
Diamondbacks Hitting Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks are batting .285 against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .245.
The Diamondbacks are batting .344 at home this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .242.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .579 at home this month (7 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .392.
Diamondbacks hitters are slugging .316 with two-strikes this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .265.
Brewers Hitting Stats & Trends
Brewers hitters have drawn 156 walks in 1,491 PA’s (10%) against LHP this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP since the 2022 season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.90.
Brewers hitters are averaging 4.03 pitches per plate appearance against RHP this season — tied for highest in MLB; League Avg: 3.89.
The Brewers are batting just .238 against LHP since the 2022 season — tied for 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Diamondbacks Pitching Stats & Trends
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed division opponents to score first in just 30% of their games this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 39% of their games at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 56%.
The Diamondbacks pitchers have allowed their opponents to score first in just 36% of their games this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 50%.
In games when their opponents have scored three or more runs in an inning, the Diamondbacks have have still managed to win 36% of the time this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.
Brewers Pitching Stats & Trends
Brewers pitchers have allowed opponents to score in three different innings in 38% of their games since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 47%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.20 (907.1 IP) against division opponents since last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.20.
Brewers pitchers have a strikeout rate of 44% with two-strikes since the 2022 season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Brewers pitchers have an ERA of 3.44 (1582.0 IP) against division opponents since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 4.12.
Brewers vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Milwaukee Brewers – No Injuries Reported
- Arizona Diamondbacks – No Injuries Reported
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