Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Jun 21

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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Jun 21, 2022, 10:31 AM
  • The Padres (42-27) are -130 favorites vs the Diamondbacks (32-37)
  • Diamondbacks starting pitcher: Zachary Gallen (4-2), 2.90 ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (3-3), 3.94 ERA
  • Watch the game on MLB Network

The Arizona Diamondbacks (+110) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-130) on Tuesday, June 21, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+165).

The Diamondbacks vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Diamondbacks are 32-37 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 38-31 ATS.

Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Diamondbacks+1.5 -200O 7 -120+110
Padres -1.5 +165U 7 +100-130

Diamondbacks vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Padres will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 68.2% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Diamondbacks and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Diamondbacks and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Diamondbacks Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Diamondbacks players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Christian Walker has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 16 away games (+14.05 Units / 81% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Hits Over in his last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 53% ROI)
  • Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 14 of his last 16 games (+11.00 Units / 42% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Runs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+10.45 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Alek Thomas has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 12 games (+8.80 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

    And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Total Bases Over in his last 8 games (+8.95 Units / 96% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+8.30 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Jurickson Profar has hit the Hits Under in his last 5 games (+5.35 Units / 55% ROI)
  • Luke Voit has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.35 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Nomar Mazara has hit the Hits Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+4.30 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Padres vs Diamondbacks Home Run Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Austin Nola 0.5 +725 0.5 -2500
    Eric Hosmer 0.5 +625 0.5 -2000
    Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +675 0.5 -2500
    Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +700 0.5 -2500
    Jurickson Profar 0.5 +625 0.5 -1600

    Padres vs Diamondbacks Total Hits Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Austin Nola 0.5 -165 0.5 +120
    Eric Hosmer 0.5 -250 0.5 +160
    Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -120 0.5 -115
    Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -225 0.5 +155
    Jurickson Profar 0.5 -200 0.5 +145

    Padres vs Diamondbacks RBI Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Austin Nola 0.5 +220 0.5 -350
    Eric Hosmer 0.5 +190 0.5 -275
    Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
    Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
    Jurickson Profar 0.5 +200 0.5 -300

    Padres vs Diamondbacks Strikeout Prop Bets Today

    Over Under
    Manaea 5.5 -155 5.5 +110
    Zac Gallen 4.5 -130 4.5 -110
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 58 games (+8.30 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 16 of their last 26 away games (+5.45 Units / 19% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 58 games (+4.65 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 24 of their last 47 games (+3.80 Units / 7% ROI)
  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 32 away games (+2.90 Units / 8% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 68 games (+10.00 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games at home (+9.85 Units / 29% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the Run Line in 38 of their last 68 games (+8.55 Units / 10% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 16 of their last 25 games at home (+7.20 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.45 Units / 28% ROI)
  • Diamondbacks Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 39-30 against the Run Line (+5.6 Units / 6.22% ROI).

    • 32-37 when betting on the Moneyline for +0.75 Units / 1% ROI
    • 29-38 when betting on the total runs Over for -12.25 Units / -16.28% ROI
    • 38-29 when betting on the total runs Under for +5.4 Units / 7.03% ROI

    Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

    Against the spread this MLB season, the Diamondbacks have gone 38-31 against the Run Line (+7.55 Units / 8.59% ROI).

    • 42-27 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.6 Units / 9.01% ROI
    • 30-37 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.15 Units / -13.45% ROI
    • 37-30 when betting on the total runs Under for +4.1 Units / 5.35% ROI

    Opponents are hitting just .139 (5-for-36) against Zac Gallen when he’s behind in the count this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .327 — 100th Percentile.

    Opponents have a miss rate of just 17% (14/83) against Zac Gallen on the first pitch of at-bats this season — tied for 6th lowest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — ninth Percentile.

    Left-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 53% (47/88) against Zac Gallen this season — 4th highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 44% — 93rd Percentile.

    Zac Gallen has allowed a slugging percentage of just .205 (9 Total Bases / 44 ABs) on elevated fastballs this season — 7th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .372 — 90th Percentile.

    Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

    Opponents are hitting just .101 (14-for-139) against Sean Manaea with two-strikes this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .165 — 98th Percentile.

    Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 43% of the time (587/1,368) with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 97th Percentile.

    Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .180 (25 Total Bases / 139 ABs) with two-strikes this season — 9th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .255 — 88th Percentile.

    Sean Manaea has allowed a slugging percentage of just .191 (13 Total Bases / 68 ABs) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .395 — 100th Percentile.

    Diamondbacks Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

    The Diamondbacks are just 81-21 (.794) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .877.

    The Diamondbacks are just 89-14 (.864) when leading entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .917.

    The Diamondbacks are just 25-146 (.146) when scoring 4 or fewer runs since the 2020 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .276.

    The Diamondbacks are 4-29 (.121) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .073.

    Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Diamondbacks

    The Padres are 5-19 (.208) when trailing entering the 7th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .098.

    The Padres are just 34-4 (.895) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — 6th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .927.

    The Padres are 19-5 (.792) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 8th best in MLB; League Avg: .720.

    The Padres are 24-14 (.632) on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .486.

    The Diamondbacks are batting just .188 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .241.

    Diamondbacks hitters are slugging just .308 in righty-righty matchups since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

    Diamondbacks hitters have 151 extra-base hits out of 352 total hits (43%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 35%.

    The Diamondbacks are batting just .212 with two outs since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .231.

    The Padres have a winning percentage of 63% on the road this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 49%.

    Padres hitters have an OBP of .328 (1,528 PA’s) on the road this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .307.

    The Padres are batting just .237 at home since the start of last season — tied for 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .247.

    Padres hitters have chased 36% of pitches out of the zone with two-strikes since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.

    Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 18% in close and late situations this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

    Opponents have a miss rate of just 22% against Diamondbacks pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in late innings since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

    Diamondbacks pitchers have a strikeout rate of just 19% in close and late situations since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

    The longest HR allowed by the Padres pitchers this season traveled 486.0 feet — — 2nd longest in MLB; League Avg: 455.2

    The Padres have won 59% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

    The Padres have won 50% of games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 29%.

    Opponents have a groundball batting average of just .187 against Padres pitchers with the shift since the start of 2020 — best in MLB; League Avg: .224.

    Padres vs. Diamondbacks Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • William Myers (Padres): Knee, D10
  • Fernando Tatis Jr. (Padres): Wrist, D60
  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Pierce Johnson (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Manuel Machado (Padres): Ankle, Day-to-Day
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Joseph Musgrove (Padres): COVID-19, D15
  • Robert Suarez (Padres): Knee, D15
  • Matthew Beaty (Padres): Shoulder, D60
  • Senger Peralta (Diamondbacks): Back, Day-to-Day
  • Ketel Marte (Diamondbacks): Hamstring, Day-to-Day
  • Humberto Castellanos (Diamondbacks): Elbow, D60
  • Nicholas Ahmed (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60
  • Jacob Bukauskas (Diamondbacks): Shoulder, D60

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    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

    Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.