Giants vs Padres Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Oct 4

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
(AP Photo)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 04, 2022, 3:30 PM
  • The Padres (88-72) are -150 favorites vs the Giants (80-80)
  • Giants starting pitcher: (-), ERA
  • Padres starting pitcher: Sean Manaea (7-9), 5.15 ERA
  • Watch the game on BSSD

The San Francisco Giants (+125) visit PETCO Park to take on the San Diego Padres (-150) on Tuesday, October 4, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40pm EDT in San Diego.

The Padres are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+145).

The Giants vs Padres Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Giants are 80-80 against the spread (ATS), while the Padres are 71-88 ATS.

Giants vs. Padres Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Giants+1.5 -175O 7 +100+125
Padres -1.5 +145U 7 -120-150

Giants vs Padres Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Giants will win Tuesday‘s matchup with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Giants and Padres and up-to-date player injuries.


Looking for a risk-free bet up to $1,000? Bet now on Padres vs Giants and all MLB games with BetMGM


Best Giants Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Giants players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Austin Wynns has hit the Singles Over in his last 8 games (+10.90 Units / 136% ROI)
  • Jason Vosler has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jason Vosler has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+9.90 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Lewis Brinson has hit the Singles Under in his last 9 games (+9.00 Units / 56% ROI)
  • J.D. Davis has hit the Hits Over in 11 of his last 12 games (+8.95 Units / 39% ROI)

Best Padres Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Padres players for Tuesday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Manny Machado has hit the Singles Under in 29 of his last 41 games at home (+13.25 Units / 25% ROI)
  • Jake Cronenworth has hit the Hits Over in 30 of his last 40 games (+12.20 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Yu Darvish has hit the Pitching Outs Over in 20 of his last 28 games (+11.75 Units / 34% ROI)
  • Brandon Drury has hit the RBIs Under in 20 of his last 24 games at home (+11.60 Units / 24% ROI)
  • Ha-Seong Kim has hit the Singles Over in 36 of his last 64 games (+11.55 Units / 17% ROI)

Padres vs Giants Home Run Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +675 0.5 -2000
Brandon Drury 0.5 +375 0.5 -700
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +600 0.5 -1600
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000
Jose Azocar 0.5 +825 0.5 -5000

Padres vs Giants Total Hits Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 -150 0.5 +105
Brandon Drury 0.5 -190 0.5 +130
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 -190 0.5 +135
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 -155 0.5 +110
Jose Azocar 0.5 -145 0.5 +100

Padres vs Giants RBI Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Austin Nola 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Brandon Drury 0.5 +175 0.5 -250
Ha-seong Kim 0.5 +230 0.5 -350
Jake Cronenworth 0.5 +250 0.5 -400
Jose Azocar 0.5 +270 0.5 -450

Padres vs Giants Strikeout Prop Bets Today

Over Under
Sean Manaea 4.5 -135 4.5 -105
  • The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 8 of their last 12 away games (+3.65 Units / 26% ROI)
  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 16 of their last 26 games at home (+6.25 Units / 21% ROI)

Giants Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 76-84 against the Run Line (-15.85 Units / -8.01% ROI).

  • 80-80 when betting on the Moneyline for -21.05 Units / -9.16% ROI
  • 74-77 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.75 Units / -6.13% ROI
  • 77-74 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.95 Units / -2.79% ROI

Padres Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Giants have gone 71-88 against the Run Line (-23.35 Units / -11.83% ROI).

  • 88-72 when betting on the Moneyline for -12.8 Units / -5.29% ROI
  • 73-82 when betting on the total runs Over for -16.45 Units / -9.37% ROI
  • 82-73 when betting on the total runs Under for +1.85 Units / 1.04% ROI

Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 41% (105 SO in 258 PAs) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 160 total IP; League Avg: 22% — 100th Percentile.

Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 33% (237 SO in 710 PAs) this season — best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 100th Percentile.

Carlos Rodon has a strikeout rate of 39% (56 SO in 142 PAs) with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 79 total IP; League Avg: 21% — 100th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 15% (3/20) against Carlos Rodon — lowest in MLB over the last two weeks; League Avg: 44% — 0 Percentile.

Sean Manaea: Padres Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 37% of the time (1,363/3,641) in non-two strike counts since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 28% — 94th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 39% of the time (553/1,406) on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — 3rd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 29% — 94th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 38% of the time (377/981) with runners in scoring position since the start of last season — 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 27% — 96th Percentile.

Sean Manaea has thrown elevated pitches 40% of the time (1,664/4,120) against right-handed batters since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 26% — 100th Percentile.

Giants Keys to the Game vs. the Padres

The Giants are 24-133 (.153) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2020 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .086.

The Giants are just 27-71 (.276) when scoring 4 or fewer runs this season — 10th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .296.

The Giants are just 10-14 (.417) when tied entering the 7th inning this season — 7th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.

The Giants are 33-10 (.767) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .726.

Padres Keys to the Game vs. the Giants

The Padres are 45-36 (.556) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .470.

The Padres are 72-25 (.742) when allowing 4 or fewer runs this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .704.

The Padres are 31-9 (.775) when hitting 2 or more home runs this season — 10th best in MLB; League Avg: .707.

The Padres are 30-11 (.732) when scoring in the first inning this season — 9th best in MLB; League Avg: .664.

The Giants are batting .369 on the first pitch of at-bats this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .336.

Giants hitters are slugging .877 on the first pitch of at-bats over the last 14 days (13 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: .552.

The Giants are batting just .216 when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .264.

Giants hitters have an OBP of just .297 (716 PA’s) when facing the starting pitcher for the 3rd time in a game this season — tied for 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .325.

Padres hitters have just 728 strikeouts in 3,512 PA’s (21%) against LHP since the start of last season — tied for 5th best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.

Padres hitters have drawn 827 walks in 8,712 PA’s (10%) against RHP since the start of last season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Padres hitters have a swing rate of just 59% with two-strikes since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 61%.

The Padres are batting just .230 at home this season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .246.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 48% against Giants pitchers this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Giants pitchers have walked 176 of 2,883 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning since the start of last season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Giants pitchers have walked 853 of 12,002 batters (7%) since the start of last season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Giants pitchers have won 44% of games in which they have allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 24%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 34% against Padres pitchers over the past seven days (7 games) — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Padres pitchers have walked 88 of 1,431 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Padres pitchers have allowed a run just 26% of the time after an opposing score since the start of last season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 30%.

The Padres have won 41% of road games in which their opponents scored first this season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 26%.

Padres vs. Giants Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Pomeranz (Padres): Elbow, D60
  • Austin Adams (Padres): Forearm, D60
  • Gregory Santos (Giants): Groin, D60
  • Logan Webb (Giants): Undisclosed, D15
  • Brandon Belt (Giants): Knee, D60
  • Donovan Walton (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Robert Wood (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan Longoria (Giants): Thumb, D10
  • José Álvarez (Giants): Elbow, D60
  • Thomas La Stella (Giants): Neck, D10
  • Mauricio Llovera (Giants): Hip, D60
  • Thomas Szapucki (Giants): Hip, D15
  • Colton Welker (Giants): Shoulder, D60
  • Samuel Long (Giants): Oblique, D60
  • Samuel Delaplane (Giants): Forearm, D60
  • Anthony DeSclafani (Giants): Ankle, D60
  • Luis González (Giants): Back, D10

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.