- The Mariners (69-57) are -175 favorites vs the Guardians (66-58)
- Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-11), 4.42 ERA
- Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (5-5), 2.92 ERA
- Watch the game on Fox Sports 1
The Cleveland Guardians (+145) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-175) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.
The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).
The Guardians vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.
So far this season, the Guardians are 66-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 64-59 ATS.
Guardians vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +1.5 -150 | O 7 -115 | +145 |
| Mariners | -1.5 +125 | U 7 -105 | -175 |
Guardians vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.
This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Mariners vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today
We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+13.35 Units / 33% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+13.10 Units / 36% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
- Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 44 games (+12.60 Units / 29% ROI)
- Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.70 Units / 84% ROI)
Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 50 games at home (+17.00 Units / 19% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 21 games (+14.00 Units / 33% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+13.25 Units / 68% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 92 games (+13.25 Units / 9% ROI)
- Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.05 Units / 65% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Guardians Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 43% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 54 away games (+10.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 away games (+10.30 Units / 54% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 65 away games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Positive Betting Trends for the Mariners: Run Line, Moneyline, Run Totals
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+15.85 Units / 33% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.90 Units / 31% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+6.40 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.45 Units / 37% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 66-57 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 2.93% ROI).
- 66-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 6.79% ROI
- 55-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -7.88% ROI
- 60-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.29% ROI
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-59 against the Run Line (-4.6 Units / -2.78% ROI).
- 68-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.15 Units / 7.39% ROI
- 58-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -4.37% ROI
- 59-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -3.23% ROI
Zach Plesac: Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Opponents are hitting .378 (31-for-82) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has not struck out any hitters in 61 PA’s in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .644 (65 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .420 — 0 Percentile.
Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.032 (94 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .714 — 0 Percentile.
Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 48% (44 SO in 91 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (249/427) against Luis Castillo since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (188/323) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.
Luis Castillo has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (612/1,580) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Guardians are 10-50 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.
The Guardians are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.
The Guardians are 39-5 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Guardians are 44-4 (.917) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Mariners are 51-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .916.
The Mariners are 35-30 (.538) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.
The Mariners are 33-5 (.868) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.
The Mariners are 46-7 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters have just 608 strikeouts in 3,490 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Guardians hitters are slugging just .340 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.
Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.
Guardians hitters have just 857 strikeouts in 4,688 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters are slugging just .163 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
The Mariners are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.
Mariners hitters have drawn 144 walks in 1,320 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Guardians pitchers have walked 69 of 1,104 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 1.60 (90.0 IP) on the road this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.
Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.
Guardians pitchers have walked 5 of 108 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
The Mariners have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.
Mariners vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
- Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
- Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
- Tyler France (Mariners): Calf, Day-to-Day
- Matthew Boyd (Mariners): Elbow, D60
- Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
- Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60
Looking for a first bet offer up to $1,000? Bet now on Mariners vs Guardians and all MLB games with BetMGM
Bet on MLB Odds at BetMGM
At BetMGM, you can bet online with updated MLB betting odds. And with live sports betting, the best online sports betting and mobile sports betting (with the BetMGM Sportsbook app) experiences are at BetMGM.