Guardians vs Mariners Prediction, Odds & Player Prop Bets Today – MLB, Aug 27

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MLB betting odds, predictions and betting odds for today's games
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BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Aug 27, 2022, 9:30 AM
  • The Mariners (69-57) are -175 favorites vs the Guardians (66-58)
  • Guardians starting pitcher: Zach Plesac (2-11), 4.42 ERA
  • Mariners starting pitcher: Luis Castillo (5-5), 2.92 ERA
  • Watch the game on Fox Sports 1

The Cleveland Guardians (+145) visit T-Mobile Park to take on the Seattle Mariners (-175) on Saturday, August 27, 2022. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10pm EDT in Seattle.

The Mariners are betting favorites in this MLB matchup, with the run line sitting at -1.5 (+125).

The Guardians vs Mariners Over/Under is 7 total runs for the game.

So far this season, the Guardians are 66-57 against the spread (ATS), while the Mariners are 64-59 ATS.

Guardians vs. Mariners Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline

SpreadOver / UnderMoneyline
Guardians+1.5 -150O 7 -115+145
Mariners -1.5 +125U 7 -105-175

Guardians vs Mariners Prediction for Today’s Game

Based on recent trends the model predicts the Guardians will win Saturday‘s matchup with 50.1% confidence.

This prediction factors in starting pitchers, recent team and player hitting performances, the last 5 games for both the Guardians and Mariners and up-to-date player injuries.


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Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today

We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Steven Kwan has hit the Runs Over in 25 of his last 36 games (+13.35 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Jose Ramirez has hit the RBIs Over in 22 of his last 36 games (+13.10 Units / 36% ROI)
  • Josh Naylor has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 19 games (+12.95 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Steven Kwan has hit the Total Bases Over in 25 of his last 44 games (+12.60 Units / 29% ROI)
  • Myles Straw has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+11.70 Units / 84% ROI)

Best Mariners Player Prop Best Bets Today

And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Saturday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Runs Under in 38 of his last 50 games at home (+17.00 Units / 19% ROI)
  • Mitch Haniger has hit the Hits Over in 19 of his last 21 games (+14.00 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Ty France has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+13.25 Units / 68% ROI)
  • Eugenio Suarez has hit the Hits Over in 61 of his last 92 games (+13.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+13.05 Units / 65% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 18 of their last 24 away games (+12.20 Units / 43% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 54 away games (+10.35 Units / 16% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 12 of their last 16 away games (+10.30 Units / 54% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 9 away games (+7.00 Units / 70% ROI)
  • The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 34 of their last 65 away games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 43 games at home (+15.85 Units / 33% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 27 of their last 40 games at home (+13.90 Units / 31% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 19 of their last 27 games at home (+7.00 Units / 18% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 46 games (+6.40 Units / 11% ROI)
  • The Seattle Mariners have covered the Run Line in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.45 Units / 37% ROI)

Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 66-57 against the Run Line (+4.55 Units / 2.93% ROI).

  • 66-57 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.35 Units / 6.79% ROI
  • 55-60 when betting on the total runs Over for -10.65 Units / -7.88% ROI
  • 60-55 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.4 Units / -0.29% ROI

Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Against the spread this MLB season, the Guardians have gone 64-59 against the Run Line (-4.6 Units / -2.78% ROI).

  • 68-55 when betting on the Moneyline for +11.15 Units / 7.39% ROI
  • 58-59 when betting on the total runs Over for -5.9 Units / -4.37% ROI
  • 59-58 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.4 Units / -3.23% ROI

Opponents are hitting .378 (31-for-82) against Zach Plesac with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .247 — 0 Percentile.

Zach Plesac has not struck out any hitters in 61 PA’s in PAs ending on inside fastballs this season — lowest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 14% — 0 Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed a slugging percentage of .644 (65 Total Bases / 101 ABs) on inside fastballs since the start of last season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: .420 — 0 Percentile.

Zach Plesac has allowed an OPS of 1.032 (94 PA’s) with runners in scoring position this season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: .714 — 0 Percentile.

Luis Castillo: Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends

Luis Castillo has a strikeout rate of 48% (44 SO in 91 PAs) in PAs ending on elevated fastballs this season — best in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 61 total IP; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.

Right-handed hitters have a groundball rate of 58% (249/427) against Luis Castillo since the start of last season — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 44% — 96th Percentile.

Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (188/323) against Luis Castillo in two-strike counts since the start of last season — 4th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 142 total IP; League Avg: 45% — 97th Percentile.

Luis Castillo has thrown his changeup 39% of the time (612/1,580) with two-strikes since the start of last season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 17% — 100th Percentile.

Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners

The Guardians are 10-50 (.167) when trailing entering the 8th inning this season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .084.

The Guardians are 45-2 (.957) when leading entering the 7th inning this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .886.

The Guardians are 39-5 (.886) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Guardians are 44-4 (.917) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians

The Mariners are 51-0 (1.000) when leading entering the 8th inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .916.

The Mariners are 35-30 (.538) on the road this season — 7th best in MLB; League Avg: .471.

The Mariners are 33-5 (.868) when totaling 10 or more hits this season — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .725.

The Mariners are 46-7 (.868) when scoring 5 or more runs this season — 6th best in MLB; League Avg: .799.

Guardians hitters have just 608 strikeouts in 3,490 PA’s (17%) against RHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Guardians hitters are slugging just .340 against LHP this season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .398.

Guardians hitters have missed on just 21% of swings this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 25%.

Guardians hitters have just 857 strikeouts in 4,688 PA’s (18%) this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .163 on pitches out of the zone since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

The Mariners are batting just .303 on the first pitch of at-bats since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .339.

Mariners hitters have drawn 144 walks in 1,320 PA’s (11%) against LHP this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 8%.

Mariners hitters are slugging just .167 on pitches out of the zone since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .210.

Guardians pitchers have walked 69 of 1,104 batters (6%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Guardians pitchers have an ERA of 1.60 (90.0 IP) on the road this month (10 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.10.

Guardians pitchers have a strikeout rate of 48% with two-strikes this month (23 games) — best in MLB; League Avg: 42%.

Guardians pitchers have walked 5 of 108 batters (5%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning over the last 14 days (12 games) — 4th best in MLB; League Avg: 7%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 40% against Mariners pitchers since the start of last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.

The Mariners have won 39% of road games in which their opponents scored first since the start of last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.

Opponents have a groundball rate of just 41% against Mariners pitchers since the start of 2020 — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 44%.

Mariners vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets 

  • Thomas Murphy (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Casey Sadler (Mariners): Shoulder, D60
  • Evan White (Mariners): Hernia, D60
  • Ryan Borucki (Mariners): Forearm, D15
  • Tyler France (Mariners): Calf, Day-to-Day
  • Matthew Boyd (Mariners): Elbow, D60
  • Cody Morris (Guardians): Shoulder, D60
  • Anthony Gose (Guardians): Triceps, D60

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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.